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Pitcher projections for the 2020 Milwaukee Brewers

Welcome to the 2020 edition of the RW23 pitcher projections for the Milwaukee Brewers. RW23 — creatively named after Rickie Weeks — was created in 2017 with the help of Mike Podhorzer and his book, “Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance.” Since its existence, RW23 has gone toe-to-toe with major projection systems Steamer and ZiPS. After the season ends, I’ll compare RW23 to both of those systems in order to see which one had the better year.

You can find the 2020 RW23 hitter projections here.

Remember projections are just projections. Don’t take them as fact. But feel free to bash them in the comments section.

RHP Brandon Woodruff

	IP	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WHIP	BAA	HR/9	SO	BB	K%	BB%
RW23	193	3.13	3.20	3.25	1.11	.226	0.94	211	49	27.0%	6.2%

RHP Josh Lindblom

	IP	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WHIP	BAA	HR/9	SO	BB	K%	BB%
RW23	158	3.72	3.72	3.96	1.33	2.43	0.82	149	61	22.1%	9.1%

RHP Adrian Houser

	IP	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WHIP	BAA	HR/9	SO	BB	K%	BB%
RW23	163	3.99	3.97	3.72	1.33	.245	1.09	165	61	23.7%	8.7%

LHP Eric Lauer

	IP	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WHIP	BAA	HR/9	SO	BB	K%	BB%
RW23	153	4.22	4.16	3.96	1.32	.255	1.30	149	48	22.8%	7.4%

LHP Brett Anderson

	IP	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WHIP	BAA	HR/9	SO	BB	K%	BB%
RW23	118	4.76	4.60	4.21	1.43	.290	1.26	68	28	13.3%	5.5%

RHP Freddy Peralta

	IP	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WHIP	BAA	HR/9	SO	BB	K%	BB%
RW23	128	3.88	3.74	3.41	1.25	.227	1.39	172	49	32.1%	9.2%

RHP Corbin Burnes

	IP	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WHIP	BAA	HR/9	SO	BB	K%	BB%
RW23	80	3.84	3.81	3.26	1.26	.232	1.25	96	30.00	28.6%	9.0%

LHP Brent Suter

	IP	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WHIP	BAA	HR/9	SO	BB	K%	BB%
RW23	65	3.82	4.04	3.72	1.17	.254	1.34	55	11	20.5%	4.2%

LHP Josh Hader

	IP	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WHIP	BAA	HR/9	SO	BB	K%	BB%
RW23	71	2.74	3.13	2.17	0.82	.157	1.63	118	19	44.1%	7.2%

RHP Corey Knebel

	IP	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WHIP	BAA	HR/9	SO	BB	K%	BB%
RW23	45	3.41	3.39	3.35	1.24	.217	0.92	57	19	30.3%	10.0%

LHP Alex Claudio

	IP	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WHIP	BAA	HR/9	SO	BB	K%	BB%
RW23	59	3.73	4.27	3.83	1.23	.253	1.05	38	13	15.2%	5.4%

RHP David Phelps

	IP	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WHIP	BAA	HR/9	SO	BB	K%	BB%
RW23	51	3.93	3.93	3.81	1.37	.235	1.00	55	24	25.2%	11.0%

RHP Ray Black

	IP	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WHIP	BAA	HR/9	SO	BB	K%	BB%
RW23	46	4.26	4.56	3.97	1.28	.233	1.67	52	18	26.7%	9.3%

RHP Bobby Wahl

	IP	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WHIP	BAA	HR/9	SO	BB	K%	BB%
RW23	52	4.19	3.98	3.80	1.40	.233	1.22	66	27	29.4%	12.0%

RHP Devin Williams

	IP	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WHIP	BAA	HR/9	SO	BB	K%	BB%
RW23	25	5.00	4.94	4.32	1.44	.267	1.69	24	9	21.6%	8.5%

RHP Eric Yardley

	IP	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WHIP	BAA	HR/9	SO	BB	K%	BB%
RW23	21	3.32	3.53	3.62	1.22	.246	0.65	16	5	18.2%	6.1%

RHP J.P. Feyereisen

	IP	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WHIP	BAA	HR/9	SO	BB	K%	BB%
RW23	19	3.75	3.77	4.01	1.32	.226	1.03	22	9	27.6%	11.1%

RW23 hitter projections for the 2018 Milwaukee Brewers

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Welcome to the second annual edition of the RW23 hitter projections. RW23 — creatively named after Rickie Weeks — was created in 2017 with the help of Mike Podhorzer and his book, “Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance.”

Below you’ll find the RW23 hitter projections for the 2018 Milwaukee Brewers’ roster as of March 25, along with the Steamer and ZiPS projection systems for comparison. In its debut season, RW23’s hitter projections went toe-to-toe with Steamer, while solidly beating ZiPS.

C Manny Pina

	PA	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	wOBA	K%	BB%	BABIP	SB	HR
RW23	333	304	.245	.301	.370	.671	.125	.295	23.1%	6.4%	.299	1	8
Steamer	231	210	.251	.306	.388	.694	.137	.300	20.5%	6.5%	.297	1	5
ZiPS	339	311	.248	.299	.386	.685	.138	.295	19.5%	5.9%	.288	2	8

1B Eric Thames

	PA	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	wOBA	K%	BB%	BABIP	SB	HR
RW23	489	419	.243	.348	.499	.846	.256	.363	30.2%	12.8%	.306	4	26
Steamer	508	437	.251	.346	.488	.834	.236	.352	27.2%	11.5%	.309	6	26
ZiPS	516	441	.240	.345	.510	.855	.270	.358	30.6%	12.6%	.300	7	29

2B Jonathan Villar

	PA	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	WOBA	K%	BB%	BABIP	SB	HR
RW23	466	423	.255	.316	.405	.721	.150	.314	28.2%	8.2%	.336	27	13
Steamer	489	434	.250	.323	.398	.721	.149	.312	27.0%	9.4%	.326	29	13
ZiPS	526	472	.244	.312	.400	.713	.157	.307	28.5%	8.7%	.324	34	15

3B Travis Shaw

	PA	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	WOBA	K%	BB%	BABIP	SB	HR
RW23	595	527	.277	.353	.535	.888	.258	.376	23.2%	10.1%	.315	9	33
Steamer	580	516	.249	.323	.454	.777	.205	.328	23.4%	9.3%	.286	5	26
ZiPS	573	515	.256	.323	.472	.795	.216	.335	23.2%	8.6%	.294	7	26

SS Orlando Arcia

	PA	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	WOBA	K%	BB%	BABIP	SB	HR
RW23	592	544	.278	.331	.431	.762	.152	.326	16.9%	7.0%	.312	15	17
Steamer	551	503	.262	.313	.405	.717	.143	.305	17.5%	6.7%	.296	14	14
ZiPS	599	554	.256	.305	.401	.706	.144	.299	18.2%	6.3%	.292	16	16

OF Ryan Braun

	PA	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	WOBA	K%	BB%	BABIP	SB	HR
RW23	475	428	.280	.345	.490	.835	.210	.356	18.3%	8.6%	.308	7	20
Steamer	475	426	.277	.344	.496	.840	.219	.353	19.3%	8.8%	.304	10	22
ZiPS	472	426	.284	.347	.495	.843	.211	.354	18.9%	8.3%	.316	12	20

OF Lorenzo Cain

	PA	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	WOBA	K%	BB%	BABIP	SB	HR
RW23	610	553	.292	.350	.417	.767	.125	.334	17.6%	7.7%	.338	23	14
Steamer	593	533	.283	.344	.437	.781	.154	.335	17.7%	7.6%	.324	16	16
ZiPS	579	530	.283	.339	.426	.765	.143	.328	16.6%	7.1%	.322	22	14

OF Christian Yelich

	PA	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	WOBA	K%	BB%	BABIP	SB	HR
RW23	672	580	.300	.386	.502	.889	.203	.382	20.2%	11.8%	.349	15	26
Steamer	647	560	.296	.381	.491	.871	.195	.371	20.2%	11.4%	.348	12	23
ZiPS	682	598	.289	.371	.472	.843	.182	.360	20.8%	11.1%	.346	16	21

OF Domingo Santana

	PA	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	WOBA	K%	BB%	BABIP	SB	HR
RW23	535	460	.273	.370	.501	.871	.228	.375	28.5%	12.5%	.352	13	25
Steamer	573	492	.258	.353	.468	.821	.211	.351	28.3%	12.0%	.328	9	26
ZiPS	566	492	.258	.352	.472	.823	.213	.352	30.9%	11.8%	.345	10	26

INF Eric Sogard

	PA	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	WOBA	K%	BB%	BABIP	SB	HR
RW23	401	357	.259	.336	.326	.662	.067	.298	12.3%	9.3%	.293	3	2
Steamer	164	142	.262	.346	.364	.710	.102	.313	14.0%	10.6%	.298	3	2
ZiPS	383	335	.257	.344	.349	.693	.093	.308	13.1%	11.0%	.291	6	4

INF Hernan Perez

	PA	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	WOBA	K%	BB%	BABIP	SB	HR
RW23	355	333	.273	.309	.430	.739	.157	.319	17.0%	5.1%	.300	8	12
Steamer	183	172	.258	.293	.398	.691	.141	.295	19.2%	4.5%	.298	6	5
ZiPS	474	446	.269	.299	.426	.725	.157	.307	18.1%	4.2%	.305	15	13

C Jett Bandy

	PA	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	WOBA	K%	BB%	BABIP	SB	HR
RW23	201	181	.228	.298	.392	.690	.164	.302	25.6%	7.3%	.275	1	7
Steamer	77	70	.229	.289	.384	.673	.154	.290	22.2%	6.2%	.267	1	2
ZiPS	297	266	.222	.291	.398	.689	.177	.297	21.5%	6.1%	.247	1	11

C Stephen Vogt

	PA	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	WOBA	K%	BB%	BABIP	SB	HR
RW23	244	225	.250	.302	.451	.752	.200	.324	17.9%	6.3%	.265	0	11
Steamer	176	159	.257	.318	.441	.759	.183	.322	18.9%	7.9%	.283	1	7
ZiPS	405	371	.259	.314	.450	.764	.191	.323	17.3%	7.2%	.280	0	15

1B Jesus Aguilar

	PA	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	WOBA	K%	BB%	BABIP	HR
RW23	82	74	.249	.314	.450	.764	.201	.330	28.8%	7.7%	.311	4
Steamer	20	18	.236	.302	.426	.728	.190	.310	26.5%	7.9%	.284	1
ZiPS	473	428	.243	.307	.428	.734	.185	.312	26.0%	7.8%	.293	19

Hitter projections for the 2017 Milwaukee Brewers

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I’m really excited about this.

For the first time in its two-and-a-half year existence, The First Out At Third is featuring real projections rather than educated guesses like it has in previous years. I’m very excited to announce to finally debut RW23 projections.

RW23 is named after my favorite (and greatest) baseball player of all time, Rickie Weeks. I’ve loved him from the moment he made his Brewers’ debut and I shed many tears during his final game in Miller Park, although he wasn’t even given an at bat. I own a banner of Weeks that used to hang up in the stadium, and his is the only autograph I truly cherish. Naming my projections after him was a no-brainer.

Now, RW23 isn’t a scientific or mathematical, computer-based model. It relies on relatively simple formulas that I entered into Excel. I’d be remiss if I didn’t give Mike Podhorzer and his book “Projecting X 2.0” credit, though, as I purchased his book to aid me. I made a few small changes and added a bit of my own sauce to it, but there’s no way I would’ve been able to do this without Mike’s book.

Below you will find RW23’s projections along with a side-by-side comparison to Steamer and ZiPS — two well-respected projection systems. At the end of the year I’ll compare the three systems to see how RW23 performed in its debut season.

As new players are added to the 25-man roster, I will dedicate an entire post to their projections, but for now, here are the hitter projections for the 2017 Milwaukee Brewers. Pitching projections will be out shortly.