Tag Archives: Projections

Reviewing the pitcher projections for the 2019 Milwaukee Brewers

The 2019 season came to an end for the Milwaukee Brewers after one playoff game. The Brewers choked away a late lead in the National League Wild Card winner-take-all showdown and were sent home packing a year after being one win away from a World Series berth. Overall it was a disappointing campaign for Milwaukee. They had too much talent to just disappear after a single game, though they were lucky to even make the playoffs in the first place.

Because the Brewers season is over, it’s time to look back at the preseason projections and see where the models went wrong and where they went right. So let’s review the season by looking over the pitcher projections from The First Out At Third’s own system (RW23), Steamer, and ZiPS. In 2017 — RW23’s debut season — RW23 was fairly accurate with its hitter projections, while it struggled with pitchers. I only projected hitters in 2018 due to a computer malfunction, and RW23 fell behind Steamer and ZiPS. It’ll be interesting to see how well RW23 holds its own in its third season.

You can find the original 2019 pitcher projections here.

*Note: I originally projected Corey Knebel, Taylor Williams and Alex Wilson, but chose not to include them below due to the limited — or zero — time spent with the Brewers.

RHP Jhoulys Chacin

IP ERA FIP XFIP WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K% BB%
RW23 185 3.80 4.38 4.43 1.30 7.33 3.46 1.04 19.1% 9.0%
Steamer 180 4.66 4.61 4.46 1.42 7.60 3.33 1.30 19.2% 8.4%
ZiPS 166 4.33 4.56 1.37 7.25 3.63 1.14
Actual 103 6.01 5.88 5.03 1.56 8.80 2.18 2.18 21.5% 9.8%

Winner: Steamer

Chacin had a miserable season for the Brewers and continued his forgettable performance when he signed with the Red Sox after his release. Steamer was most down on the righty going into the season, and therefore deserves the win.

RHP Freddy Peralta

IP ERA FIP XFIP WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K% BB%
RW23 114 4.09 4.50 4.37 1.38 10.65 5.03 1.28 27.3% 12.9%
Steamer 127 4.35 4.36 4.27 1.38 10.49 4.62 1.29 26.7% 11.8%
ZiPS 132 4.01 4.10 1.35 12.11 5.10 1.22
Actual 85 5.29 4.18 4.15 1.46 12.18 3.92 1.59 30.1% 9.7%

Winner: ZiPS

Like Chacin, all three projection systems had a difficult time projecting the flame-throwing Peralta, but in the end, ZiPS was most accurate. Peralta began the year in the rotation (7.07 ERA) before transitioning to the bullpen (4.01 ERA). It’ll be interesting to see how the Brewers use him in 2020.

RHP Brandon Woodruff

IP ERA FIP XFIP WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K% BB%
RW23 122 3.73 3.68 3.87 1.32 8.71 3.38 0.83 22.7% 8.8%
Steamer 133 4.39 4.36 4.17 1.37 8.24 3.41 1.22 21.0% 8.7%
ZiPS 117 4.21 4.16 1.36 8.57 3.59 1.07
Actual 121 3.62 3.01 3.36 1.14 10.58 2.22 0.89 29.0% 6.1%

Winner: RW23

As you”ll see, RW23 was higher on Milwaukee’s pitchers — especially the young arms like Woodruff — than Steamer and ZiPS were. And in this case, RW23 was correct about Woodruff. He broke out in a big way in 2019 and is set to headline the team’s rotation next season and in years to come.

RHP Corbin Burnes

IP ERA FIP XFIP WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K% BB%
RW23 124 3.64 3.74 3.84 1.29 8.87 3.26 0.85 23.1% 8.5%
Steamer 134 4.48 4.44 4.24 1.39 8.23 3.54 1.24 20.9% 9.0%
ZiPS 135 3.92 4.12 1.3 8.71 3.26 1.13
Actual 49 8.82 6.09 3.37 1.84 12.86 3.67 3.12 29.8% 8.5%

Winner: N/A

After a dominant performance out of the bullpen in 2018, Burnes was a disaster this season, giving up home run after home run. RW23 was incredibly high on Burnes coming into the year, and personally, I still like him, but he’ll need to fix his fastball location issues. No projection system gets the win here.

RHP Zach Davies

IP ERA FIP XFIP WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K% BB%
RW23 150 4.09 4.23 4.12 1.36 7.02 3.02 1.01 18.1% 7.8%
Steamer 119 4.62 4.48 4.28 1.41 7.06 2.72 1.29 17.7% 6.8%
ZiPS 145 4.26 4.34 1.35 6.73 2.78 1.11
Actual 159 3.55 4.56 5.20 1.29 5.75 2.87 1.13 15.2% 7.6%

Winner: RW23

For the fourth time in his five big-league seasons, Davies posted a sub-4.00 ERA despite nasty peripherals. RW23 takes home the win because it took into account that while Davies doesn’t strikeout many hitters, he has a knack for limiting hard contact, which allows him to beat his peripherals.

RHP Jimmy Nelson

IP ERA FIP XFIP WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K% BB%
RW23 119 3.67 3.60 3.45 1.27 9.40 2.86 0.93 24.6% 7.5%
Steamer 75 4.14 3.98 3.85 1.30 8.73 2.97 1.11 22.7% 7.7%
ZiPS 121 4.30 4.47 1.38 7.94 3.41 1.19
Actual 22 6.95 5.80 5.34 1.91 10.64 6.95 1.64 24.8% 16.2%

Winner: N/A

Nelson was nearly impossible to project heading into the season. We didn’t know his health situation and what is role would be if he returned. He made three starts and made seven relief appearances, all the while struggling with control. He definitely didn’t look like the Nelson of old. Hopefully, he has a completely healthy offseason and we’ll be able to project him more accurately in 2020.

RHP Chase Anderson

IP ERA FIP XFIP WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K% BB%
RW23 83 4.27 4.83 4.52 1.30 7.91 3.28 1.53 20.7% 8.6%
Steamer 116 4.63 4.58 4.40 1.32 8.36 2.72 1.55 21.4% 7.0%
ZiPS 141 4.47 5.13 1.35 7.28 3.19 1.66
Actual 139 4.21 4.83 5.26 1.27 8.03 3.24 1.49 21.0% 8.5%

Winner: RW23

RW23 hit Anderson’s projection right on the nose with it’s most accurate projection yet, giving it the easy win. Anderson was who he’s mainly always been; a reliable and innings-eating pitcher. The Brewers just recently traded him to the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for Chad Spanberger.

LHP Josh Hader

IP ERA FIP XFIP WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K% BB%
RW23 74 2.37 2.87 2.63 0.91 13.91 3.46 1.06 40.2% 10.0%
Steamer 65 2.92 2.94 2.97 1.10 13.65 3.84 0.99 36.9% 10.4%
ZiPS 73 2.95 3.08 1.10 15.34 4.30 1.23
Actual 75 2.62 3.10 2.36 0.81 16.41 2.38 1.78 47.8% 6.9%

Winner: ZiPS

Hader continued to strike every one out, but he also started giving up home runs at a high rate, which is why he set career highs in ERA and FIP. ZiPS deserves the win for accurately projecting Hader’s batted ball issues.

RHP Jeremy Jeffress

IP ERA FIP XFIP WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K% BB%
RW23 59 3.39 3.50 3.27 1.26 9.73 3.62 0.83 25.8% 9.6%
Steamer 40 3.38 3.40 3.34 1.28 9.59 3.35 0.78 25.2% 8.8%
ZiPS 66 3.12 3.36 1.25 9.23 3.53 0.68
Actual 52 5.02 3.96 4.40 1.37 7.96 2.94 0.87 20.4% 7.6%

Winner: N/A

No winners here once again. This is getting annoying. But how can I declare a winner when nobody projected Jeffress would implode? Jeffress dealt with injuries in spring training and throughout the year, and that contributed to a decrease in fastball velocity and fewer strikeouts. The Brewers released him in September.

LHP Alex Claudio

IP ERA FIP XFIP WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K% BB%
RW23 71 3.06 2.97 2.98 1.15 6.43 1.21 0.51 17.5% 3.3%
Steamer 60 3.57 3.59 3.53 1.31 6.80 2.24 0.75 17.7% 5.8%
ZiPS 75 3.33 3.44 1.2 5.83 1.78 0.59
Actual 62 4.06 4.92 4.59 1.31 6.39 3.48 1.16 16.5% 9.0%

Winner: Steamer

Claudio led all relievers in appearances with 83, but he failed to be the pitcher the Brewers hoped he would be. RW23 was hoping Claudio would recapture his magic from 2017, but instead he pitched similar to 2018. Steamer adds another to the win column.

RHP Matt Albers

IP ERA FIP XFIP WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K% BB%
RW23 53 4.26 4.22 3.98 1.36 8.40 3.07 1.19 21.6% 7.9%
Steamer 65 4.18 4.11 3.96 1.33 8.35 2.93 1.17 21.4% 7.5%
ZiPS 41 4.35 4.49 1.28 8.49 2.61 1.52
Actual 59 5.13 4.66 4.55 1.37 8.60 4.37 1.21 22.1% 11.2%

Winner: ZiPS

Albers’ terrible tenure as a Milwaukee Brewer is finally over, as the two-year deal he signed turned out to be one of the worst moves by general manager David Stearns. Albers is a free agent and will likely sign a prove-it deal with a rebuilding team. ZiPS was closest on Albers’ poor production.

RHP Jacob Barnes

IP ERA FIP XFIP WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K% BB%
RW23 55 3.50 3.61 3.82 1.33 8.61 3.98 0.68 22.5% 10.4%
Steamer 35 4.04 4.04 3.97 1.38 8.97 3.84 1.03 22.9% 9.8%
ZiPS 61 3.65 3.74 1.38 8.90 4.23 0.73
Actual 32 7.44 6.06 5.22 1.78 8.82 6.06 1.93 20.0% 13.8%

Winner: N/A

Another pitcher who imploded for the Brewers and another contest that has no winner. The Brewers designated Barnes for assignment in August and the Royals just released him. He has talent, but his command is limiting his success.

RHP Junior Guerra

IP ERA FIP XFIP WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K% BB%
RW23 41 4.03 4.28 4.00 1.28 8.72 3.07 1.34 23.0% 8.1%
Steamer 60 3.86 3.84 3.81 1.25 9.71 3.03 1.19 25.4% 7.9%
ZiPS 119 4.46 4.72 1.39 8.09 3.86 1.36
Actual 83 3.55 4.52 4.83 1.12 8.28 3.87 1.18 22.4% 10.5%

Winner: RW23

This was close between RW23 and Steamer, but RW23 was just a little more accurate in more categories. Guerra produced a nice season and eventually became one of Craig Counsell‘s most trusted bullpen arms. He seems to have found his spot as a reliever.

FINAL RESULTS:

RW23: 4 wins

ZiPS: 3 wins

Steamer: 2 wins

Reviewing the hitter projections for the 2019 Milwaukee Brewers

The 2019 season came to an end for the Milwaukee Brewers after one playoff game. The Brewers choked away a late lead in the National League Wild Card winner-take-all showdown and were sent home packing a year after being one win away from a World Series berth. Overall it was a disappointing campaign for Milwaukee. They had too much talent to just disappear after a single game, though they were lucky to even make the playoffs in the first place.

Because the Brewers season is over, it’s time to look back at the preseason projections and see where the models went wrong and where they went right. So let’s review the season by looking over the projections from The First Out At Third’s own system (RW23), Steamer, and ZiPS. In 2017 — RW23’s debut season — RW23 was fairly accurate with its hitter projections, while it struggled with pitchers. I only projected hitters in 2018 due to a computer malfunction, and RW23 fell behind Steamer and ZiPS. It’ll be interesting to see how well RW23 holds its own in its third season.

You can find the original 2019 hitter projections here.

C Yasmani Grandal

PA AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO wOBA HR K% BB% BABIP
RW23 532 .247 .355 .487 .842 .240 .361 28 24.0% 14.1% .280
Steamer 496 .237 .344 .453 .797 .216 .345 23 25.0% 13.5% .277
ZiPS 475 .238 .349 .462 .811 .223 .351 23 25.7% 14.3% .281
Actual 632 .246 .380 .468 .848 .222 .361 28 22.0% 17.2% .279

Winner: RW23

RW23 accurately projected Grandal’s weighted on-base average and number of home runs, while nailing his batting average and OPS. RW23 is the clear winner here, as is Grandal after a fantastic season.

1B Jesus Aguilar

PA AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA HR K% BB% BABIP
RW23 595 .258 .329 .480 .810 .223 .346 30 27.2% 8.8% .309
Steamer 578 .242 .317 .454 .771 .212 .330 28 26.4% 9.1% .286
ZiPS 526 .258 .333 .492 .825 .234 .350 28 25.3% 9.5% .297
Actual 369 .236 .325 .389 .714 .153 .307 12 22.0% 11.7% .272

Winner: N/A

The three projection systems all failed to predict Aguilar’s offensive fall. The Brewers ultimately traded him to the Tampa Bay Rays, and while he hit better, his power from 2018 remained gone. No winners here.

2B/3B Mike Moustakas

PA AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA HR K% BB% BABIP
RW23 603 .269 .330 .508 .838 .239 .356 34 16.6% 8.1% .270
Steamer 575 .261 .321 .489 .809 .228 .342 30 16.5% 7.5% .264
ZiPS 580 .267 .324 .506 .818 .239 .350 32 16.2% 7.1% .268
Actual 584 .254 .329 .516 .845 .262 .348 35 16.8% 9.1% .250

Winner: RW23

It was a tight race, but RW23 comes away with a narrow victory, due to it more accurately projecting Moustakas’ power numbers. Playing a full year at Miller Park sure helped his power, as Moustakas’ 35 home runs were the second most of his career.

3B Travis Shaw

PA AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA HR K% BB% BABIP
RW23 595 .282 .376 .534 .910 .252 .386 34 19.0% 12.9% .298
Steamer 598 .249 .334 .457 .791 .209 .338 27 21.3% 10.8% .276
ZiPS 560 .261 .340 .472 .812 .219 .346 26 21.4% 11.1% .282
Actual 270 .157 .281 .270 .551 .113 .248 7 33.0% 13.3% .216

Winner: N/A

Let’s forget I predicted Shaw would make the All-Star roster this year. Let’s just wipe that from our memories because this was a lost season for Shaw. He spent a lot of time in the minors and looked completely lost when he was with the Brewers. No one foresaw this kind of downfall. Nobody’s a winner.

SS Orlando Arcia

PA AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA HR K% BB% BABIP
RW23 552 .245 .293 .357 .650 .112 .286 11 22.9% 6.2% .303
Steamer 507 .253 .302 .377 .679 .123 .293 10 19.4% 6.2% .299
ZiPS 553 .247 .294 .360 .654 .113 .283 10 21.3% 6.0% .302
Actual 546 .223 .283 .350 .633 .128 .269 15 20.0% 7.9% .253

Winner: RW23

Arcia was the worst hitter in baseball in 2019, and it may be time to question if his bat will ever play at a league-average level. RW23 takes home another win, though it was extremely close to being a three-way tie.

OF Ryan Braun

PA AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA HR K% BB% BABIP
RW23 460 .270 .331 .493 .824 .222 .351 20 19.8% 8.0% .300
Steamer 507 .265 .330 .476 .807 .212 .342 23 19.6% 8.4% .290
ZiPS 440 .269 .332 .470 .802 .201 .340 18 19.5% 8.2% .300
Actual 508 .285 .343 .505 .849 .220 .354 22 20.7% 6.7% .325

Winner: RW23

Another win for RW23, as Braun enjoyed a offensive resurgence. Steamer and ZiPS underestimated his power numbers, giving RW23 the clear and decisive victory.

OF Lorenzo Cain

PA AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO wOBA HR K% BB% BABIP
RW23 600 .296 .372 .424 .796 .128 .349 12 15.8% 10.3% .339
Steamer 620 .284 .356 .422 .778 .138 .339 14 16.9% 9.2% .327
ZiPS 568 .287 .359 .409 .768 .123 .336 11 16.2% 9.3% .330
Actual 623 .260 .325 .372 .697 .112 .302 11 17.0% 8.0% .301

Winner: ZiPS

This contest was close between ZiPS and Steamer, though neither projection system saw Cain’s offense falling as much as it did. Cain dealt with injuries throughout the season and was nowhere near the hitter he was for the Brewers in 2018. The Brewers will need him to bounce back in a big way.

OF Christian Yelich

PA AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA HR K% BB% BABIP
RW23 662 .310 .390 .544 .934 .234 .397 29 20.5% 11.0% .360
Steamer 637 .297 .381 .515 .896 .218 .382 26 20.5% 11.2% .344
ZiPS 673 .298 .379 .522 .901 .224 .384 28 21.1% 10.8% .349
Actual 580 .329 .429 .671 1.100 .342 .442 44 20.3% 13.8% .355

Winner: RW23

All three projection systems thought Yelich would regress in 2019, a word Yelich grew to hate. And Yelich proved everyone wrong, as he set career marks in almost every offensive category. RW23 picks up another victory here, due to its more bullish projection.

1B Eric Thames

PA AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA HR K% BB% BABIP
RW23 340 .232 .316 .478 .794 .246 .342 19 32.3% 10.0% .295
Steamer 258 .235 .329 .459 .788 .224 .336 12 30.3% 11.2% .299
ZiPS 427 .229 .333 .478 .818 .256 .346 23 32.3% 12.2% .293
Actual 459 .247 .346 .505 .851 .258 .354 25 30.5% 11.1% .313

Winner: ZiPS

Because Aguilar forgot how to hit, Thames saw more playing time and eventually took over the starting job completely when Aguilar was traded. As a result, put together a very solid season. His wRC+ of 116 was well above league average and his on-base skills returned after dipping a bit in 2018. However, he’s now on the free agent market after the Brewers declined his $7.5 million option. ZiPS takes home the win here, as it believed in Thames’ 2017 performance more than his 2018 performance.

OF Ben Gamel

PA AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA HR K% BB% BABIP
RW23 322 .272 .346 .416 .762 .144 .332 6 19.7% 9.5% .330
Steamer 110 .267 .333 .393 .725 .126 .316 2 20.9% 8.5% .330
ZiPS 530 .267 .331 .413 .744 .146 .322 9 20.4% 8.3% .326
Actual 356 .248 .337 .373 .710 .125 .308 7 29.2% 11.2% .347

Winner: Steamer

Steamer is finally on the board! Gamel turned out to be a nice bench piece for the Brewers, but he showed little extra-base power and his strikeouts skyrocketed. He should likely resume is bench role next season.

INF Hernan Perez

PA AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA HR K% BB% BABIP
RW23 295 .254 .288 .398 .686 .143 .297 9 21.6% 4.6% .301
Steamer 216 .253 .290 .394 .685 .141 .295 5 20.0% 4.9% .294
ZiPS 415 .255 .286 .401 .687 .145 .294 11 20.5% 4.3% .298
Actual 246 .228 .262 .379 .642 .151 .271 8 26.8% 4.5% .283

Winner: Three-way tie

The projections were so similar to each other that it’s basically impossible to pick a sole winner, so I’ve giving the victory to all three projection systems. Perez isn’t fun to project and he’s not fun to watch, so it makes sense.

INF Cory Spangenberg

PA AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA HR K% BB% BABIP
RW23 252 .264 .328 .426 .753 .162 .328 8 27.1% 8.0% .339
Steamer 75 .245 .306 .383 .688 .138 .300 2 28.4% 7.4% .328
ZiPS 461 .246 .306 .406 .712 .160 .308 13 30.4% 7.2% .337
Actual 102 .232 .277 .358 .635 .126 .267 2 35.3% 5.9% .351

Winner: Steamer

Steamer takes home an easy victory here by correctly predicting Spangenberg’s role and low power numbers. Spangenberg is a free agent and will likely move on from Milwaukee.

C Manny Pina

PA AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA HR K% BB% BABIP
RW23 261 .239 .303 .365 .668 .126 .293 6 19.0% 6.7% .281
Steamer 96 .250 .306 .388 .694 .138 .301 2 20.4% 6.6% .296
ZiPS 334 .247 .303 .385 .688 .138 .297 8 19.2% 6.3% .285
Actual 179 .228 .313 .411 .724 .184 .308 7 27.9% 8.9% .284

Winner: Steamer

Steamer’s projected plate appearances for Pina were far too low, but everything else was relatively on point, earning it a victory. Pina will return to the Brewers in 2020, though his role — with Grandal’s likely departure — is yet to be determined.

FINAL RESULTS:

RW23: 6 wins

Steamer: 4 wins

ZiPS: 3 wins

Pitcher projections for the 2019 Milwaukee Brewers

Welcome to the 2019 edition of the RW23 hitter projections for the Milwaukee Brewers. RW23 — creatively named after Rickie Weeks — was created in 2017 with the help of Mike Podhorzer and his book, “Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance.”

Below you’ll find the RW23 pitcher projections for the 2019 Milwaukee Brewers, along with the Steamer and ZiPS projection systems for comparison. Remember projections are just projections, and RW23 is significantly more bullish on Milwaukee’s starting pitching staff than Steamer and ZiPS. Don’t take any of these projection systems as fact. But feel free to bash them in the comments section.

You can find my previously published hitter projections here.

RHP Jhoulys Chacin

IP ERA FIP xFIP WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K% BB%
RW23 185.0 3.80 4.38 4.43 1.30 7.33 3.46 1.04 19.1% 9.0%
Steamer 180.0 4.66 4.61 4.46 1.42 7.60 3.33 1.30 19.2% 8.4%
ZiPS 166.0 4.33 4.56 1.37 7.25 3.63 1.14

RHP Freddy Peralta

IP ERA FIP xFIP WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K% BB%
RW23 114.0 4.09 4.50 4.37 1.38 10.65 5.03 1.28 27.3% 12.9%
Steamer 127.0 4.35 4.36 4.27 1.38 10.49 4.62 1.29 26.7% 11.8%
ZiPS 132.0 4.01 4.10 1.35 12.11 5.10 1.22

RHP Brandon Woodruff

IP ERA FIP xFIP WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K% BB%
RW23 122.0 3.73 3.68 3.87 1.32 8.71 3.38 0.83 22.7% 8.8%
Steamer 133.0 4.39 4.36 4.17 1.37 8.24 3.41 1.22 21.0% 8.7%
ZiPS 117.0 4.21 4.16 1.36 8.57 3.59 1.07

RHP Corbin Burnes

IP ERA FIP xFIP WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K% BB%
RW23 124.0 3.64 3.74 3.84 1.29 8.87 3.26 0.85 23.1% 8.5%
Steamer 134.0 4.48 4.44 4.24 1.39 8.23 3.54 1.24 20.9% 9.0%
ZiPS 135.0 3.92 4.12 1.30 8.71 3.26 1.13

RHP Zach Davies

IP ERA FIP xFIP WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K% BB%
RW23 150.0 4.09 4.23 4.12 1.36 7.02 3.02 1.01 18.1% 7.8%
Steamer 119.0 4.62 4.48 4.28 1.41 7.06 2.72 1.29 17.7% 6.8%
ZiPS 145.0 4.26 4.34 1.35 6.73 2.78 1.11

RHP Jimmy Nelson

IP ERA FIP xFIP WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K% BB%
RW23 119.0 3.67 3.60 3.45 1.27 9.40 2.86 0.93 24.6% 7.5%
Steamer 75.0 4.14 3.98 3.85 1.30 8.73 2.97 1.11 22.7% 7.7%
ZiPS 121.0 4.30 4.47 1.38 7.94 3.41 1.19

RHP Chase Anderson

IP ERA FIP xFIP WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K% BB%
RW23 83.0 4.27 4.83 4.52 1.30 7.91 3.28 1.53 20.7% 8.6%
Steamer 116.0 4.63 4.58 4.40 1.32 8.36 2.72 1.55 21.4% 7.0%
ZiPS 141.0 4.47 5.13 1.35 7.28 3.19 1.66

LHP Josh Hader

IP ERA FIP xFIP WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K% BB%
RW23 74.0 2.37 2.87 2.63 0.91 13.91 3.46 1.06 40.2% 10.0%
Steamer 65.0 2.92 2.94 2.97 1.10 13.65 3.84 0.99 36.9% 10.4%
ZiPS 73.0 2.95 3.08 1.10 15.34 4.30 1.23

RHP Jeremy Jeffress

IP ERA FIP xFIP WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K% BB%
RW23 59.0 3.39 3.50 3.27 1.26 9.73 3.62 0.83 25.8% 9.6%
Steamer 40.0 3.38 3.40 3.34 1.28 9.59 3.35 0.78 25.2% 8.8%
ZiPS 66.0 3.12 3.36 1.25 9.23 3.53 0.68

LHP Alex Claudio

IP ERA FIP xFIP WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K% BB%
RW23 71.0 3.06 2.97 2.98 1.15 6.43 1.21 0.51 17.5% 3.3%
Steamer 60.0 3.57 3.59 3.53 1.31 6.80 2.24 0.75 17.7% 5.8%
ZiPS 75.0 3.33 3.44 1.20 5.83 1.78 0.59

RHP Matt Albers

IP ERA FIP xFIP WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K% BB%
RW23 53.0 4.26 4.22 3.98 1.36 8.40 3.07 1.19 21.6% 7.9%
Steamer 65.0 4.18 4.11 3.96 1.33 8.35 2.93 1.17 21.4% 7.5%
ZiPS 41.0 4.35 4.49 1.28 8.49 2.61 1.52

RHP Corey Knebel

IP ERA FIP xFIP WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K% BB%
RW23 39.0 2.98 2.89 2.95 1.16 12.61 3.76 0.81 34.2% 10.2%
Steamer 20.0 3.03 2.95 2.97 1.15 12.85 3.73 0.88 34.4% 10.0%
ZiPS 62.0 2.90 3.06 1.16 13.79 4.06 1.02

RHP Taylor Williams

IP ERA FIP xFIP WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K% BB%
RW23 49.0 3.98 3.85 3.85 1.36 9.76 8.76 1.03 25.3% 10.0%
Steamer 40.0 4.07 4.06 4.01 1.34 9.74 3.79 1.17 25.0% 9.7%
ZiPS 56.0 4.34 4.21 1.48 9.32 4.34 1.13

RHP Jacob Barnes

IP ERA FIP xFIP WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K% BB%
RW23 55.0 3.50 3.61 3.82 1.33 8.61 3.98 0.68 22.5% 10.4%
Steamer 35.0 4.04 4.04 3.97 1.38 8.97 3.84 1.03 22.9% 9.8%
ZiPS 61.0 3.65 3.74 1.38 8.90 4.23 0.73

RHP Junior Guerra

IP ERA FIP xFIP WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K% BB%
RW23 41.0 4.03 4.28 4.00 1.28 8.72 3.07 1.34 23.0% 8.1%
Steamer 60.0 3.86 3.84 3.81 1.25 9.71 3.03 1.19 25.4% 7.9%
ZiPS 119.0 4.46 4.72 1.39 8.09 3.86 1.36

RHP Alex Wilson

IP ERA FIP xFIP WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K% BB%
RW23 52.0 3.99 3.96 4.31 1.35 6.97 2.81 0.92 18.1% 7.3%
Steamer 20.0 4.18 4.12 4.07 1.32 7.66 2.53 1.18 19.7% 6.5%
ZiPS 58.0 3.88 3.95 1.24 6.21 2.17 0.93

 

Reviewing the hitter projections for the 2018 Milwaukee Brewers

Phew.

What a season. What an incredible, outta-this-world fun and heart-wrenching season the 2018 campaign turned out to be. When Mike Moustakas swung and missed on a pitch in the dirt from Clayton Kershaw to end the Milwaukee Brewers’ Cinderella story, I was broken, and yet, so thrilled and happy I was able to witness playoff baseball in Miller Park once again.

With that being said, I needed time away from the Brewers and from baseball, which is why this site has been silent for awhile. I needed to process what happened and I needed to decompress. That’s over with now. I’m ready to start thinking and writing about the Milwaukee Brewers again.

So let’s review the season by looking over the preseason projections from The First Out At Third’s own system (RW23), Steamer and ZiPS. In 2017, RW23 was fairly accurate with its hitter projections, while it struggled with pitchers. My computer took a dive just before the season started, so I was unable to project hurlers this year, though I did manage to get my hitter projections out to the world. Let’s see how they stacked up against the powerhouses of Steamer and ZiPs.

***Note: My preseason projections included Jonathan Villar, Eric Sogard, Domingo Santana, Jett Bandy and Stephen Vogt, but because Villar was traded, Sogard, Santana and Bandy barely spent any time with the team and Vogt missed the entire season, I decided not to include them below. If you have issues with this decision, take it up with the league office.

C Manny Pina

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP SB HR
RW23 333 304 .245 .301 .370 .671 .125 .295 23.1% 6.4% .299 1 8
Steamer 231 210 .251 .306 .388 .694 .137 .300 20.5% 6.5% .297 1 5
ZiPS 339 311 .248 .299 .386 .685 .138 .295 19.5% 5.9% .288 2 8
Actual 337 306 .252 .307 .395 .702 .144 .301 18.4% 6.2% .285 2 9

Winner: Steamer

All three projection systems foresaw Pina’s fall back to earth after a career year in 2017. Steamer just happened to be a bit more spot on than RW23 and ZiPS. It remains to be seen if Pina will be Milwaukee’s starting backstop in 2018, though one should expect him to be on the 25-man roster.

1B Eric Thames

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP SB HR
RW23 489 419 .243 .348 .499 .846 .256 .363 30.2% 12.8% .306 4 26
Steamer 508 437 .251 .346 .488 .834 .236 .352 27.2% 11.5% .309 6 26
ZiPS 516 441 .240 .345 .510 .855 .270 .358 30.6% 12.6% .300 7 29
Actual 278 247 .219 .306 .478 .783 .259 .330 34.9% 10.4% .284 7 16

Winner: N/A

Thames lost playing time to Jesus Aguilar soon after the season started, and he proved he wasn’t a reliable option off the bench, highlighted by the fact the Brewers refused to put him on their postseason roster. Thames looked lost at the plate all year, and none of the projection systems saw it coming. There’s no winners here.

3B/2B Travis Shaw

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP SB HR
RW23 595 527 .277 .353 .535 .888 .258 .376 23.2% 10.1% .315 9 33
Steamer 580 516 .249 .323 .454 .777 .205 .328 23.4% 9.3% .286 5 26
ZiPS 573 515 .256 .323 .472 .795 .216 .335 23.2% 8.6% .294 7 26
Actual 587 498 .241 .345 .480 .825 .239 .351 18.4% 13.3% .242 5 32

Winner: ZiPS

Though RW23 was correct in projecting that Shaw was capable of putting up similar — if not better — power numbers to 2017, it was a little too bullish on the Brewers infielder, giving ZiPS its first win. Shaw was the victim of some BABIP bad luck, and I expect his average and OBP to rise in 2019.

SS Orlando Arcia

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP SB HR
RW23 592 544 .278 .331 .431 .762 .152 .326 16.9% 7.0% .312 15 17
Steamer 551 503 .262 .313 .405 .717 .143 .305 17.5% 6.7% .296 14 14
ZiPS 599 554 .256 .305 .401 .706 .144 .299 18.2% 6.3% .292 16 16
Actual 366 348 .236 .268 .307 .576 .072 .253 23.8% 4.1% .305 7 3

Winner: ZiPS

We can just copy what I wrote about Thames and paste it here, because, boy, Arcia was just a bag of off-balanced swings during the regular season. He turned it on in October, but that doesn’t erase his miserable six months prior to that. Once again, RW23 hyped up Arcia, and while Steamer and ZiPS didn’t think he’d be this dreadful, the win goes to the latter.

OF Ryan Braun

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP SB HR
RW23 475 428 .280 .345 .490 .835 .210 .356 18.3% 8.6% .308 7 20
Steamer 475 426 .277 .344 .496 .840 .219 .353 19.3% 8.8% .304 10 22
ZiPS 472 426 .284 .347 .495 .843 .211 .354 18.9% 8.3% .316 12 20
Actual 447 405 .254 .313 .469 .782 .215 .330 19.0% 7.6% .274 11 20

Winner: ZiPS

A .313 on-base percentage for Braun is shocking, though his career-low .274 BABIP explains it a little. I didn’t want to give ZiPS the win here, as all three projection systems missed the mark again, but I guess ZiPS was the closest. I honestly have no idea.

OF Lorenzo Cain

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP SB HR
RW23 610 553 .292 .350 .417 .767 .125 .334 17.6% 7.7% .338 23 14
Steamer 593 533 .283 .344 .437 .781 .154 .335 17.7% 7.6% .324 16 16
ZiPS 579 530 .283 .339 .426 .765 .143 .328 16.6% 7.1% .322 22 14
Actual 620 539 .308 .395 .417 .813 .109 .359 15.2% 11.5% .357 30 10

Winner: RW23

RW23 thought that Cain would be a force at the top of Milwaukee’s batting order, but Cain exceeded expectations in nearly every category, and earned himself a handful of MVP votes. Meanwhile, RW23 finally finds the win column.

OF Christian Yelich

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP SB HR
RW23 672 580 .300 .386 .502 .889 .203 .382 20.2% 11.8% .349 15 26
Steamer 647 560 .296 .381 .491 .871 .195 .371 20.2% 11.4% .348 12 23
ZiPS 682 598 .289 .371 .472 .843 .182 .360 20.8% 11.1% .346 16 21
Actual 651 574 .326 .402 .598 1.000 .272 .422 20.7% 10.4% .373 22 36

Winner: RW23

The first convincing win for RW23, as it projected Yelich’s career year. The Brewers outfielder brought home the National League MVP and displayed a power force he never showed during his time in Miami. It seems rather unlikely Yelich can hit 36 home runs again in 2019, but is it really sane to put expectations on him anymore?

UTIL Hernan Perez

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP SB HR
RW23 355 333 .273 .309 .430 .739 .157 .319 17.0% 5.1% .300 8 12
Steamer 183 172 .258 .293 .398 .691 .141 .295 19.2% 4.5% .298 6 5
ZiPS 474 446 .269 .299 .426 .725 .157 .307 18.1% 4.2% .305 15 13
Actual 334 316 .253 .290 .386 .676 .133 .292 21.3% 5.1% .300 11 9

Winner: Steamer

Perez had a typical Hernan Perez season. No walks and no on-base skills. There’s not much else to say about his season. I gave Steamer the win, despite being off on his playing time numbers.

1B Jesus Aguilar

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP SB HR
RW23 82 74 .249 .314 .450 .764 .201 .330 28.8% 7.7% .311 0 4
Steamer 20 18 .236 .302 .426 .728 .190 .310 26.5% 7.9% .284 0 1
ZiPS 473 428 .243 .307 .428 .734 .185 .312 26.0% 7.8% .293 0 19
Actual 566 492 .274 .352 .539 .890 .264 .374 25.3% 10.2% .309 0 35

Winner: N/A

RW23 and Steamer didn’t think Aguilar would stick on the roster very long, and while ZiPS pegged him for a starting job, it vastly underestimated him as a hitter. Aguilar surprised everyone in baseball with his crushing of pitchers, and though he fell off in the second half, his season of 3.1 WAR was a tremendous success.

Final Results:

ZiPS: 3 wins

Steamer: 2 wins

RW23: 2 wins

RW23 hitter projections for the 2018 Milwaukee Brewers

Welcome to the second annual edition of the RW23 hitter projections. RW23 — creatively named after Rickie Weeks — was created in 2017 with the help of Mike Podhorzer and his book, “Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance.”

Below you’ll find the RW23 hitter projections for the 2018 Milwaukee Brewers’ roster as of March 25, along with the Steamer and ZiPS projection systems for comparison. In its debut season, RW23’s hitter projections went toe-to-toe with Steamer, while solidly beating ZiPS.

C Manny Pina

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO wOBA K% BB% BABIP SB HR
RW23 333 304 .245 .301 .370 .671 .125 .295 23.1% 6.4% .299 1 8
Steamer 231 210 .251 .306 .388 .694 .137 .300 20.5% 6.5% .297 1 5
ZiPS 339 311 .248 .299 .386 .685 .138 .295 19.5% 5.9% .288 2 8

1B Eric Thames

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO wOBA K% BB% BABIP SB HR
RW23 489 419 .243 .348 .499 .846 .256 .363 30.2% 12.8% .306 4 26
Steamer 508 437 .251 .346 .488 .834 .236 .352 27.2% 11.5% .309 6 26
ZiPS 516 441 .240 .345 .510 .855 .270 .358 30.6% 12.6% .300 7 29

2B Jonathan Villar

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP SB HR
RW23 466 423 .255 .316 .405 .721 .150 .314 28.2% 8.2% .336 27 13
Steamer 489 434 .250 .323 .398 .721 .149 .312 27.0% 9.4% .326 29 13
ZiPS 526 472 .244 .312 .400 .713 .157 .307 28.5% 8.7% .324 34 15

3B Travis Shaw

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP SB HR
RW23 595 527 .277 .353 .535 .888 .258 .376 23.2% 10.1% .315 9 33
Steamer 580 516 .249 .323 .454 .777 .205 .328 23.4% 9.3% .286 5 26
ZiPS 573 515 .256 .323 .472 .795 .216 .335 23.2% 8.6% .294 7 26

SS Orlando Arcia

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP SB HR
RW23 592 544 .278 .331 .431 .762 .152 .326 16.9% 7.0% .312 15 17
Steamer 551 503 .262 .313 .405 .717 .143 .305 17.5% 6.7% .296 14 14
ZiPS 599 554 .256 .305 .401 .706 .144 .299 18.2% 6.3% .292 16 16

OF Ryan Braun

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP SB HR
RW23 475 428 .280 .345 .490 .835 .210 .356 18.3% 8.6% .308 7 20
Steamer 475 426 .277 .344 .496 .840 .219 .353 19.3% 8.8% .304 10 22
ZiPS 472 426 .284 .347 .495 .843 .211 .354 18.9% 8.3% .316 12 20

OF Lorenzo Cain

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP SB HR
RW23 610 553 .292 .350 .417 .767 .125 .334 17.6% 7.7% .338 23 14
Steamer 593 533 .283 .344 .437 .781 .154 .335 17.7% 7.6% .324 16 16
ZiPS 579 530 .283 .339 .426 .765 .143 .328 16.6% 7.1% .322 22 14

OF Christian Yelich

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP SB HR
RW23 672 580 .300 .386 .502 .889 .203 .382 20.2% 11.8% .349 15 26
Steamer 647 560 .296 .381 .491 .871 .195 .371 20.2% 11.4% .348 12 23
ZiPS 682 598 .289 .371 .472 .843 .182 .360 20.8% 11.1% .346 16 21

OF Domingo Santana

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP SB HR
RW23 535 460 .273 .370 .501 .871 .228 .375 28.5% 12.5% .352 13 25
Steamer 573 492 .258 .353 .468 .821 .211 .351 28.3% 12.0% .328 9 26
ZiPS 566 492 .258 .352 .472 .823 .213 .352 30.9% 11.8% .345 10 26

INF Eric Sogard

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP SB HR
RW23 401 357 .259 .336 .326 .662 .067 .298 12.3% 9.3% .293 3 2
Steamer 164 142 .262 .346 .364 .710 .102 .313 14.0% 10.6% .298 3 2
ZiPS 383 335 .257 .344 .349 .693 .093 .308 13.1% 11.0% .291 6 4

INF Hernan Perez

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP SB HR
RW23 355 333 .273 .309 .430 .739 .157 .319 17.0% 5.1% .300 8 12
Steamer 183 172 .258 .293 .398 .691 .141 .295 19.2% 4.5% .298 6 5
ZiPS 474 446 .269 .299 .426 .725 .157 .307 18.1% 4.2% .305 15 13

C Jett Bandy

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP SB HR
RW23 201 181 .228 .298 .392 .690 .164 .302 25.6% 7.3% .275 1 7
Steamer 77 70 .229 .289 .384 .673 .154 .290 22.2% 6.2% .267 1 2
ZiPS 297 266 .222 .291 .398 .689 .177 .297 21.5% 6.1% .247 1 11

C Stephen Vogt

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP SB HR
RW23 244 225 .250 .302 .451 .752 .200 .324 17.9% 6.3% .265 0 11
Steamer 176 159 .257 .318 .441 .759 .183 .322 18.9% 7.9% .283 1 7
ZiPS 405 371 .259 .314 .450 .764 .191 .323 17.3% 7.2% .280 0 15

1B Jesus Aguilar

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP SB HR
RW23 82 74 .249 .314 .450 .764 .201 .330 28.8% 7.7% .311 0 4
Steamer 20 18 .236 .302 .426 .728 .190 .310 26.5% 7.9% .284 0 1
ZiPS 473 428 .243 .307 .428 .734 .185 .312 26.0% 7.8% .293 0 19

Reviewing the pitcher projections for the 2017 Milwaukee Brewers

The World Series is over (congratulations to World Series champion Mike Fiers) but for fans of the Milwaukee Brewers, the offseason began long ago. The Brewers missed the playoffs by an inch, and although playing in October would’ve been incredible, the season as a whole was a great success. I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again; the future is bright in Milwaukee. I fully believe this team is just a year or two away from being a perennial playoff team, something the Brewers have never really been.

But now that the season has ended, it’s time to revisit the projections by comparing my own system (RW23) that was created with the help of Mike Podhorzer and his book Projecting X 2.0, with popular projection systems Steamer and ZiPS. This was the first year I had ever created projections, and I’m curious to see how they held up.

Below you’ll find every Brewers pitcher I projected just before the season tipped off, along with Steamer and ZiPS projections, compared to said player’s actual 2017 statistical line. If you missed my hitter projection review, you can find it here.

***Note: My preseason projections included Tommy Milone, Jhan Marinez, Neftali Feliz and Taylor Jungmann, but because they were on the major league roster for such a short time, I chose not to include them below.

Junior Guerra

IP HR WHIP BABIP K/9 BB/9 K% BB% ERA FIP XFIP
RW23 162 17 1.27 .281 7.48 3.25 19.8% 8.6% 3.61 3.99 4.35
Steamer 192 25 1.39 .303 8.24 3.47 21.0% 8.9% 4.43 4.29 4.25
ZiPS 123 18 1.35 .294 8.20 3.66 20.9% 9.3% 4.24 4.54 N/A
Actual 70.1 18 1.48 .236 8.57 5.50 21.3% 13.7% 5.12 6.58 5.43

Winner: Steamer

All three projection systems — especially RW23 — missed on Guerra’s meltdown in 2017, and while Steamer and ZiPS were equally accurate, neither really deserve a win here. Yet, I’m giving it to Steamer. Guerra will be 33 by the beginning of next season, and it seems like his time with Milwaukee is most likely finished. But at least we have his 2016 brilliance as a nice memory.

Zach Davies

IP HR WHIP BABIP K/9 BB/9 K% BB% ERA FIP XFIP
RW23 168 22 1.32 .305 7.75 2.61 20.2% 6.8% 4.13 4.14 3.95
Steamer 174 23 1.36 .306 7.67 2.82 19.7% 7.3% 4.35 4.19 4.11
ZiPS 169 20 1.27 .307 7.76 2.55 20.2% 6.6% 3.99 3.91 N/A
Actual 191.1 20 1.35 .302 5.83 2.59 15.2% 6.7% 3.90 4.22 4.42

Winner: Steamer

RW23 should definitely get its props for being accurate, but Steamer still managed to edge out the win by just a hair. Once again, Davies outperformed his peripherals, while also finishing with the exact same BABIP and home runs allowed as he did in 2016. The 24 year old has proved he deserves to be in a major league rotation, even if most of his outs come in other ways than the strike out.

Jimmy Nelson

IP HR WHIP BABIP K/9 BB/9 K% BB% ERA FIP XFIP
RW23 181 21 1.35 .296 7.83 3.47 20.1% 8.9% 4.02 4.27 4.16
Steamer 120 15 1.46 .308 7.39 3.64 18.5% 9.1% 4.80 4.57 4.48
ZiPS 170 21 1.38 .307 7.57 3.39 19.2% 8.6% 4.34 4.45 N/A
Actual 175.1 16 1.25 .340 10.21 2.46 27.3% 6.6% 3.49 3.05 3.15

Winner: RW23

Neither of the three systems were particularly close when it came to projecting Nelson, but RW23 was closer to predicting his success relative to Steamer and ZiPS. Nelson broke out in 2017, and despite a crazy .340 BABIP, posted the lowest ERA, FIP and xFIP of his career. It’s really a shame he’ll miss a significant amount of time next season.

Matt Garza

IP HR WHIP BABIP K/9 BB/9 K% BB% ERA FIP XFIP
RW23 96 11 1.44 .303 6.05 3.18 15.4% 8.1% 4.45 4.46 4.53
Steamer 128 19 1.46 .308 6.54 3.06 16.5% 7.7% 4.89 4.71 4.57
ZiPS 122 18 1.43 .309 6.30 3.04 15.8% 7.6% 5.04 4.76 N/A
Actual 114.2 17 1.45 .287 6.20 3.53 15.7% 8.9% 4.94 4.91 5.12

Winner: ZiPS

ZiPS and Steamer were neck-and-neck, but I’m giving the slight edge to the former. Garza was dreadful once again, and his contract will go down as the worst free agent contract in Milwaukee Brewers franchise history. He’s now a free agent, but seeing how his last few seasons went, his career might be over. If so, he finishes a 12-year career with 23 WAR.

Wily Peralta

IP HR WHIP BABIP K/9 BB/9 K% BB% ERA FIP XFIP
RW23 125 16 1.42 .310 6.66 2.94 17.0% 7.5% 4.49 4.37 4.09
Steamer 140 18 1.45 .312 6.93 3.12 17.5% 7.9% 4.64 4.43 4.26
ZiPS 149 22 1.43 .312 6.67 3.07 16.7% 7.7% 4.81 4.70 N/A
Actual 57.1 10 1.83 .362 8.16 5.02 19.3% 11.9% 7.85 5.34 4.96

Winner: N/A

Peralta was terrible in 2017. So much so that he was optioned to the minors and subsequently designated for assignment. There are no winners here.

Chase Anderson

IP HR WHIP BABIP K/9 BB/9 K% BB% ERA FIP XFIP
RW23 138 25 1.40 .295 7.37 3.12 18.9% 8.0% 4.82 5.03 4.51
Steamer 133 18 1.37 .301 7.81 2.83 20.0% 7.2% 4.72 4.56 4.43
ZiPS 139 22 1.38 .308 7.28 2.96 18.5% 7.5% 4.64 4.67 N/A
Actual 141.1 14 1.09 .265 8.47 2.61 23.4% 7.2% 2.74 3.58 4.33

Winner: Steamer

So far the projections haven’t been able to figure out Brewers pitchers in 2017, but once again, Steamer was the closest on Anderson, particularly regarding his peripherals. Anderson posted a sub-3.00 ERA that no one saw coming, and he heads into next season as the Brewers top pitcher.

Jacob Barnes

IP HR WHIP BABIP K/9 BB/9 K% BB% ERA FIP XFIP
RW23 52 4 1.20 .293 9.09 3.12 24.5% 8.4% 3.10 3.18 3.54
Steamer 35 4 1.32 .304 8.98 3.28 23.3% 8.5% 3.94 3.84 3.88
ZiPS 53 5 1.27 .313 9.56 3.35 24.9% 8.7% 3.52 3.46 N/A
Actual 72 8 1.25 .272 10.00 4.13 26.3% 10.9% 4.00 3.88 3.67

Winner: Steamer

ZiPS had more of Barnes’ peripheral stats correct, but Steamer takes the cake with its ERA/FIP/xFIP projections. Barnes was wild and didn’t command the strike zone as well as RW23 thought he would. However, his strikeout numbers are great, and he should once again be in the back end of the bullpen and used in high-leverage situations next season.

Corey Knebel

IP HR WHIP BABIP K/9 BB/9 K% BB% ERA FIP XFIP
RW23 63 6 1.22 .297 10.32 3.48 27.6% 9.3% 3.24 3.29 3.43
Steamer 65 7 1.28 .302 10.66 3.77 27.9% 9.9% 3.56 3.49 3.56
ZiPS 54 7 1.27 .316 11.28 3.81 29.3% 9.9% 3.65 3.68 N/A
Actual 76 6 1.16 .311 14.92 4.74 40.8% 12.9% 1.78 2.53 2.97

Winner: ZiPS

I could’ve given the win to RW23, but once again, ZiPS was more consistent throughout. Knebel put together his best season of his professional career and finished with the fourth-highest strikeout rate among qualified relievers.

Carlos Torres

IP HR WHIP BABIP K/9 BB/9 K% BB% ERA FIP XFIP
RW23 73 9 1.28 .285 8.16 3.26 21.5% 8.6% 3.76 4.10 4.08
Steamer 55 7 1.36 .304 8.58 3.33 22.0% 8.6% 4.17 4.09 4.09
ZiPS 80 11 1.33 .301 8.74 3.59 22.4% 9.2% 3.92 4.29 N/A
Actual 72.2 10 1.53 .309 6.94 4.09 17.4% 10.3% 4.21 4.89 4.96

Winner: Steamer

All three systems missed the target on Torres, as his ERA rose by almost 1.5 runs from 2016. He was ourighted by Milwaukee a few weeks ago.

Jared Hughes

IP HR WHIP BABIP K/9 BB/9 K% BB% ERA FIP XFIP
RW23 62 5 1.38 .292 5.11 2.95 13.0% 7.5% 3.99 4.39 4.43
Steamer 10 1 1.46 .308 6.06 3.41 15.3% 8.6% 4.34 4.40 4.46
ZiPS 63 6 1.41 .303 5.12 2.98 N/A N/A 3.69 4.52 N/A
Actual 59.2 4 1.22 .278 7.24 3.62 19.7% 9.8% 3.02 3.93 3.98

Winner: RW23

At the time I published my original projections post, Steamer hadn’t updated Hughes’ projection. Same with ZiPS for K% and BB%. So I guess by default, RW23 is the winner. Hughes — who was another quality under-the-radar pickup by David Stearns — was an extremely valuable asset in Milwaukee’s bullpen, and the 32 year old should have a similar role in 2018.

Final Results

Steamer: 5 wins

ZiPS: 2 wins

RW23: 2 wins

Reviewing the hitter projections for the 2017 Milwaukee Brewers

The World Series is over (congratulations to World Series champion Mike Fiers) but for fans of the Milwaukee Brewers, the offseason began long ago. The Brewers missed the playoffs by an inch, and although playing in October would’ve been incredible, the season as a whole was a great success. I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again; the future is bright in Milwaukee. I fully believe this team is just a year or two away from being a perennial playoff team, something the Brewers have never really been.

But now that the season is over, it’s time to revisit the projections by comparing my own system (RW23) that was created with the help of Mike Podhorzer and his book Projecting X 2.0, with popular projection systems Steamer and ZiPS. This was the first year I had ever created projections, and I’m curious to see how they held up.

Below you’ll find every Brewers hitter I projected in the preseason, along with Steamer and ZiPS projections, compared to said player’s actual 2017 statistical line. Pitcher projection results will soon follow the publication of this article.

Manny Pina

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP HR
RW23 360 330 .246 .302 .356 .658 .110 .290 16.1% 7.0% .275 8
Steamer 109 99 .250 .305 .384 .689 .135 .298 17.2% 6.6% .282 3
ZiPS 304 278 .241 .291 .371 .662 .129 .286 16.4% 5.9% .271 6
Actual 359 330 .279 .327 .424 .751 .145 .323 22.0% 5.6% .339 9

Winner: Steamer

Even though Steamer vastly miscalculated Pina’s playing time while RW23 was dead accurate, Steamer’s projections were consistently more spot on, giving it the win. Neither of the three thought Pina would have the offensive season he mustered. Kudos to him.

Eric Thames

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP HR
RW23 535 478 .265 .334 .517 .851 .252 .360 26.4% 9.3% .308 31
Steamer 534 470 .272 .350 .515 .864 .243 .364 24.2% 9.6% .313 29
ZiPS 507 450 .247 .321 .493 .815 .247 .343 28.2% 8.7% .297 26
Actual 551 469 .247 .359 .518 .877 .271 .369 29.6% 13.6% .309 31

Winner: RW23

Another close one with Steamer, but RW23 earns its first win. It correctly predicted Thames’ home run total and was just a point off in slugging and BABIP. Thames produced an excellent season for the Brewers and was definitely a major upgrade over Chris Carter. ZiPS, meanwhile, is still looking to get on the scoreboard.

Jonathan Villar

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP HR
RW23 625 545 .260 .348 .398 .746 .137 .326 24.9% 11.8% .336 15
Steamer 641 563 .255 .333 .397 .731 .142 .318 25.3% 10.0% .329 15
ZiPS 584 515 .256 .332 .410 .742 .153 .322 26.9% 9.8% .338 15
Actual 436 403 .241 .293 .372 .665 .132 .287 30.3% 6.9% .330 11

Winner: N/A

Jonathan Villar was awful in 2017. While each system projected regression from his phenomenal and unsustainable 2016 campaign, none had him falling off the face of the earth. He eventually lost his starting job to Eric Sogard and Neil Walker, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he finds himself displaced from the roster next year.

Travis Shaw

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP HR
RW23 541 485 .254 .322 .439 .761 .185 .330 24.4% 8.7% .301 22
Steamer 388 347 .245 .314 .431 .745 .186 .319 23.3% 8.6% .286 15
ZiPS 542 492 .246 .308 .433 .741 .187 .316 22.9% 7.9% .287 20
Actual 606 538 .273 .349 .513 .862 .240 .361 23.1% 9.9% .312 31

Winner: RW23

RW23 was a little more bullish than Steamer and ZiPS, though Shaw still managed to exceed all projections and expectations. He set a career high with 31 home runs and had his best season of his career. Not the most accurate projection by RW23, but it somewhat projected his breakout.

Orlando Arcia

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP HR
RW23 580 537 .255 .304 .383 .688 .129 .300 17.5% 6.5% .293 12
Steamer 538 497 .246 .292 .375 .667 .129 .288 18.3% 5.8% .286 10
ZiPS 635 593 .245 .289 .379 .669 .135 .288 20.2% 5.5% .291 13
Actual 548 506 .277 .324 .407 .731 .130 .309 18.2% 6.6% .317 15

Winner: RW23

Once again, RW23 was overall just more consistent. Arcia managed to outperform the projections and turned out to be somewhat of a better hitter than people expected. He still only finished with an 85 wRC+, so there’s room for improvement from the 23 year old.

Ryan Braun

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP HR
RW23 555 496 .291 .355 .495 .850 .204 .362 18.6% 8.6% .320 24
Steamer 544 487 .280 .346 .492 .838 .212 .353 19.3% 8.7% .310 24
ZiPS 548 497 .282 .343 .477 .820 .195 .347 18.4% 8.0% .313 22
Actual 425 380 .268 .336 .487 .823 .218 .347 17.9% 8.9% .292 17

Winner: ZiPS

ZiPS earns its first win, as it accurately predicted Braun’s wOBA and was just a couple points off of his OPS. Braun’s home run power disappeared in 2017, and he just didn’t look like the player he used to be. With the crop of young outfielders the Brewers are ready to employ, Braun’s future is a little up in the air.

Keon Broxton

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP HR
RW23 522 456 .242 .331 .413 .743 .170 .325 31.0% 11.4% .337 15
Steamer 530 466 .222 .304 .378 .683 .156 .298 32.9% 10.2% .315 15
ZiPS 469 417 .216 .297 .408 .705 .192 .304 37.3% 10.0% .325 16
Actual 463 414 .220 .299 .420 .819 .200 .308 37.8% 8.6% .323 20

Winner: ZiPS

Keon Broxton led MLB in strikeout rate (minimum 400 PA), and ZiPS nailed it on the head with that one. ZiPS was scary accurate throughout Broxton’s projection, while RW23 turned out to be way too optimistic. The centerfielder was, however, able to knock out 20 home runs, but his 84 wRC+ left a lot to be desired.

Domingo Santana

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP HR
RW23 515 441 .256 .354 .490 .843 .234 .362 31.0% 12.3% .341 23
Steamer 517 448 .253 .343 .449 .792 .197 .342 28.8% 11.4% .327 21
ZiPS 466 408 .243 .333 .441 .774 .199 .334 32.6% 11.2% .335 19
Actual 607 525 .278 .371 .505 .875 .227 .372 29.3% 12.0% .363 30

Winner: RW23

This one wasn’t all that close. RW23 correctly predicted Santana’s breakout, particularly when it came to his power numbers. Personally, I’ve been a die-hard believer in Santana as a prospect and a player, and it’s nice to see him perform at such at high level in his 25-age season. He led the Brewers in wRC+ and while 30 home runs might be his peak, expect his OBP numbers to increase as he continues to get a better feel for the strike zone.

Hernan Perez

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP HR
RW23 315 296 .261 .296 .383 .679 .122 .295 21.6% 4.7% .314 7
Steamer 402 379 .261 .294 .385 .679 .124 .292 19.6% 4.2% .308 8
ZiPS 486 458 .266 .293 .400 .693 .133 .296 18.1% 3.7% .308 10
Actual 458 432 .259 .289 .414 .704 .155 .298 17.2% 4.4% .286 14

Winner: ZiPS

ZiPS believed Perez would get more playing than a typical utility player, and it was right. For the second straight year, Perez set a career high in home runs and is destined to play a similar role for the Brewers in 2018.

Jett Bandy

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP HR
RW23 300 280 .267 .304 .457 .761 .190 .326 17.8% 3.9% .282 14
Steamer 218 199 .237 .288 .393 .681 .156 .294 19.7% 4.9% .267 7
ZiPS 337 307 .225 .278 .378 .655 .153 .284 22.8% 4.2% .260 11
Actual 188 169 .207 .287 .349 .636 .142 .280 27.1% 8.0% .259 6

Winner: ZiPS

Bandy started out hot to begin the year, but the catcher eventually cooled and was optioned to the minors. He has raw power and RW23 expected to see that in 2017. It’s hard to envision Bandy making the Opening Day roster in 2018 with Manny Pina and Stephen Vogt still on the roster, but a eye-opening spring could keep him in Milwaukee’s plans.

Jesus Aguilar

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP HR
RW23 145 134 .231 .283 .334 .617 .103 .273 22.3% 6.5% .280 3
Steamer 99 90 .238 .303 .411 .714 .174 .306 23.0% 7.9% .276 4
ZiPS 568 516 .250 .310 .448 .758 .198 .322 23.1% 7.6% .283 26
Actual 311 279 .265 .331 .505 .837 .240 .351 30.2% 8.0% .337 16

Winner: ZiPS

Aguilar is arguably the biggest surprise of the 2017 campaign. He’s a relatively unknown player who just happened to post a 112 wRC+ off the bench in his first full season in MLB. RW23 and Steamer didn’t believe in him at all. Sure, he had a fantastic spring training, but spring training stats are relatively meaningless. It will be interesting to see what the projections look like for Aguilar next year.

Final Results

ZiPS: 5 wins

RW23: 4 wins

Steamer: 1 win