Tag Archives: MLB Trade Deadline

Let’s talk about the Milwaukee Brewers trade deadline

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In July 2018 the Milwaukee Brewers made waves before the MLB trade deadline hit. The Brewers — who were sitting a few percentage points behind the Chicago Cubs with a 63-47 record — added Mike Moustakas, Joakim Soria and Jonathan Schoop in three separate trades. Moustakas and Soria were significant contributors to Milwaukee’s NLCS run, while Schoop (-0.3 in 46 games) failed to make a positive impact. July 2018 was an important month for the Brewers, and it allowed fans to wonder and salivate over what moves were in store for the team this year.

Once again, the Brewers made three trades (Jordan Lyles was acquired from the Pirates on July 29) before the 3:00 p.m. CT deadline arrived, but unlike a year ago, the players acquired were far less remarkable. Here’s what the Brewers cooked up on trade deadline day:

When Robert Murray of The Athletic tweeted the Brewers were sending Dubon to the Giants in a “significant” trade, my heart stopped. For a brief second I thought that both Madison Bumgarner and Will Smith were headed to Milwaukee, until I realized that Murray’s definition of “significant” was drastically different than mine, and well, the rest of the world’s. The only thing significant about Milwaukee’s deadline is that they traded a 2018 All-Star and a fan and clubhouse favorite in Aguilar. The three players the Brewers got back? Not so noteworthy. But let’s talk about them anyway.

Jake Faria

Faria burst onto the scene in 2017 when he finished with a 3.43 ERA, 4.12 FIP and 1.3 WAR in 16 games (14 starts) as a rookie. He looked like a legitimate young rotation pitcher. But then 2018 rolled around and he looked lost, evidenced by his 5.40 ERA and 5.08 FIP. Here’s a quick look at the difference:

Faria’s never been known for his velocity or spin, but he was above average in strikeout rate and did a good job of limiting opponent’s power, although he did give up a fair amount of hard contact. Fast forward to 2018 and he plummeted in all categories. He wasn’t just bad, he was bottom-of-the-barrel terrible. This year’s been better, at least in terms of ERA, and while he’s been able to strikeout over 23 percent of batters, his walk rate is through the roof. And that’s been a constant in Faria’s young career, and something that will limit his success if he can’t fix his control.

Faria recently turned 26, so he’s still young enough to figure things out. And, might I add, he has years of team control left. He’s not eligible for free agency until 2024, which was very appealing to the Brewers. However, he won’t do much to help the Brewers this season and is a wild card for the future, which is why this trade didn’t do much for me. Plus, I think they gave up on Aguilar too quickly.

Drew Pomeranz

In December 2018 I tweeted that Pomeranz was a clear buy-low candidate for the Brewers. It only took them seven months and their fourth-best prospect before they listened. It wasn’t exactly a buy-low, but there’s stuff to like about the lefty.

Let’s first forget about his current ERA of 5.68. Pomeranz will be used as a reliever — not as a starter like he was deployed San Francisco — and so far the results out of the bullpen have been magnificent. His velocity is up a few ticks since the switch and of the 10 batters he’s faced, he’s struck out half of them. It’s a small sample, definitely, but encouraging nonetheless.

Pomeranz is also a lefty, and the Brewers have need a lefty reliever who’s not named Josh Hader and who’s more consistent and strike hitters out more often than Alex Claudio. Pomeranz will definitely help the bullpen, but is he worth Dubon? I’m not so sure. I’m not the biggest Dubon believer in the world, but I believe he could’ve been packaged with other prospects to secure a more dominant and helpful player. It hurts even more knowing that Pomeranz will likely walk in free agency after the season.

Ray Black

Black throws heat. He throws hard and and he throws fast. His fastball — which is capable of reaching over 100 mph — is in the 99th percentile in terms of velocity. Black also uses his velocity to his advantage. In 25.1 major league innings, Black has a strikeout rate of 35.9 percent. If we set the inning parameters to a minimum of 20 innings, Black has the 10th-highest strikeout rate in MLB history. Obviously that doesn’t mean all that much, other than the fact that Black is capable of being filthy.

On the flip side, he walks everyone, even more than Faria. And in those 25.1 aforementioned innings, he owns a 6.04 ERA, albeit a much more friendly 4.15 FIP, thanks to his strikeout ability. His limited control will keep him in the minors — where the Brewers sent him — and keep his potential hidden. But Black has the most upside of all three players, and it’s really not hard to see why.

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The Brewers didn’t have a significant deadline because the moves they made won’t help the 2019 team enough in its playoff push. They also may not help in the future, though that remains to be seen. And that’s the biggest problem I had with Milwaukee’s deadline. It left me wondering, what was the point?

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Jordan Lyles joins the Milwaukee Brewers again

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It’s not the splash fans wanted, but the Milwaukee Brewers traded for a starting pitcher Monday. The Brewers sent RHP Cody Ponce to the Pittsburgh Pirates for RHP Jordan Lyles.

Lyles, as some of you may recall, spent time with the Brewers in 2018 after being picked up off waivers from the San Diego Padres. He was deployed exclusively as a reliever for Milwaukee, pitching 16.1 innings and posting a 3.31 ERA and 2.49 FIP. The 28-year-old hurler ultimately elected free agency after the season and signed a one-year, $2.05 million contract with the Pirates. Some questioned why the Brewers let him walk so easily. Some were more than fine with his departure, citing his less-than-stellar track record as a major league pitcher.

But now Lyles is back in Milwaukee once again, where he hopefully — for the Brewers’ sake — can pitch like he did a year ago. However, that may not be in the cards, as his time in Pittsburgh wasn’t too friendly. Lyles joins the Brewers with the baggage of 5.36 ERA and 4.81 FIP, the former being the ninth-worst mark among starters in baseball (minimum 80 innings pitched). He’s giving up nearly two home runs a game (1.75/9) and currently sits in the 11th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed. So why do the Brewers think he’ll be an upgrade? General manager David Stearns discussed that very question:

The Brewers – like most clubs in 2019 — are looking past the ERA. They believe that he’s been a victim of a bit of bad luck, which is probably true. In fact, did you know that Lyles’ ERA was under 4.00 until the calendar turned to July? And did you know that in July teams have a batting average on balls in play of .556 against him? That’s the highest mark in baseball. A BABIP like that — and the same thing would be said for an incredibly low BABIP — is completely unsustainable. And then there’s the strike outs. Lyles is striking out batters at a career-high clip of 24.9 percent including 27.1 percent in July. He’s just getting severely punished when hitters make contact, kind of like Josh Hader. (No I’m not saying Lyles is like Hader, so please stop.)

Lyles joins a team that is desperate need of arms, both in the rotation and in the bullpen, so it’ll be interesting to see where the Brewers use his talents. The team has already confirmed he’ll start at some point this week, but the best option may be to use him out of the bullpen. He’s already proved he can be a valuable bullpen arm for the Brewers, and his strikeout rate could potentially rise even more if he works just an inning or two. The Brewers should do everything they can to avoid Lyles having to face a lineup multiple times through the order.

Lyles isn’t going to help the Brewers win the World Series, but he might — just maybe — make them better. From the sound of it, Stearns and Co. expect to make more moves before Wednesday’s deadline hits. The question is: will they be significant moves or more Lyles-esque acquisitions?

MLB Trade Deadline: Trade targets for the Milwaukee Brewers

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The Major League Baseball trade deadline is less than a week away, and since there’s only one trade deadline this year, we could be — and hopefully are — in store for a flurry of trades before the clock strikes August 1.

The Milwaukee Brewers — like many teams in the National League — have a tough decision to make. Should they buy? They currently sit in third place in the NL Central with a record of 54-50 record, though they trail the first-place Cubs by just 2.0 games. General manager David Stearns has repeatedly said he’s always on the look out to improve the team, and the trade deadline is the perfect time to do just that. And why wouldn’t he want to make his team better? The Brewers are above .500 and within striking distance of a playoff spot. It makes perfect sense for Stearns to perform his magic and go get one, two or 65 starting pitchers, and no one would fault him for doing so.

But is it the smart, fiscally responsible thing to do? The Brewers have problems nearly everywhere you look. They have a -12 run differential, the third-worst starting rotation in terms of ERA in the National League and an untrustworthy bullpen with a 4.58 ERA. Can Stearns really make enough moves to vault his team into World Series contention?

If the Brewers decide to push all-in — a phrase uttered by Mark Attanasio this offseason — they’ll surely start by fixing the rotation. Saying it needs to be upgraded is an understatement. It desperately needs a rebranding and a complete makeover. With Brandon Woodruff expected to miss at least six weeks, and Jhoulys Chacin — who realistically should have been removed from the rotation weeks ago — headed to the injured list, the need is even more dire.

Here are a few starting pitchers Milwaukee should be targeting:

Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler:

There have been talks that the Brewers are interested in Mets’ starters Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler. Now, Syndergaard will cost an arm and a leg, or maybe two of each. He doesn’t become a free agent until 2022 and isn’t yet making break-the-bank money. In relation to his teammate, Wheeler wouldn’t be as expensive to acquire. He’s scheduled to hit the open market after the season, and his current 4.69 ERA will likely drop his cost. Syndergaard has an equally high ERA, but like Wheeler, his peripherals look much better. Plus we know the talent his possesses. Both arms would aid the Brewers rotation, though it remains to be seen if the Mets sell, and even if they do, prying Syndergaard away will probably be next to impossible, especially with the lack of top-tier prospects in Milwaukee’s system. Keston Hiura would assuredly be part of that deal.

Madison Bumgarner

Despite the fact that Madison Bumgarner doesn’t want any player to have fun playing baseball, he’s been a solid starter in 2019. Due to his decline in velocity, Bumgarner has been throwing fewer baseballs with encouraging results. He owns a 3.66 ERA with an even lower FIP, and his strikeout rate of 24.6 percent and walk rate of 5 percent rank 26th and 9th, respectfully. He’ll be hot commodity at the deadline, though with San Francisco’s recent out-of-this-world hot streak, one wonders if they’ll even sell. They should, but that doesn’t mean they will. The Brewers are on Bumgarner’s no-trade list, but that’s most likely just a leverage play. Parting with two upper-tier prospects for someone of Bumargner’s pedigree makes sense, even if he’s destined to leave via free agency in 2020.

Marcus Stroman

Stroman might be my favorite guy on this list, particularly because I have a thing for ground-ball pitchers. Stroman is second-best in the majors at generating ground balls with a grounder rate of 57.1 percent. Milwaukee’s infield defense — though not the best — is more than capable of gobbling up those grounders for outs. Stroman doesn’t strike many people out, but he’s still managed to post the lowest ERA and second-lowest FIP of his career. Like Syndergaard, though, he’ll come with a hefty price tag (he’s not due to be a free agent until 2021) and is probably destined to end up with a big-market team.

Robbie Ray

Stearns loves players who still have years of team control, and although that means getting rid of more assets, it’s usually the wise move to make when you know you’re limited in the free agency game. If I was Stearns, I’d be all over Ray. He’s under team control until 2021, he’s on a team that — just like every team in the NL — might sell and he strikes out more batters than every other starting pitcher but seven. He has walk issues and sometimes gives up too many home runs, but he’s consistent and you know exactly what he’ll bring every time he steps to the mound. He could be a key piece in Milwaukee’s rotation not just for this year’s playoff run, but also for 2020 as well.

The Brewers — if they truly believe they can make another deep playoff run — will need to improve their bullpen as well. A reunion with Will Smith could be in the cards. Maybe they could even package him with Bumgarner. Toronto’s Ken Giles will likely be moved, and Baltimore’s Mychal Givens and Seattle’s Roenis Elias could be of interest to the Brewers.

If the Brewers push their chips even more into the middle than they already have, the pitchers above should be on top of their wish list, though all will have plenty of suitors. With all that being said, though, I’m not sure I believe the Brewers should make significant trades and gear up for an attempt at the postseason. I just don’t think this year’s team is good enough, even with one or two major upgrades. The Brewers came into 2019 believing they were a better team than their 2018 club, despite gigantic question marks in the rotation. Those question marks have become exclamation points because of just how bad nearly every Brewers starter has turned out to be. Stearns failed to make rotation upgrades in free agency, and now the team is paying for it. Should he really plunder a minor-league system and potentially hurt the future of the franchise for a chance at the playoffs? Maybe it’s best to retool during the winter and focus on 2020. But maybe they think they have another magical late-season run in them.

And perhaps they do. Hopefully they do.

Did David Stearns make a mistake?

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The Milwaukee Brewers (73-59) sit 4.5 games behind the Chicago Cubs and currently lead the Rockies by a game in the race for the second Wild Card spot. Once upon a time, they had a sizable lead in the division, and once upon a time — on July 10 — they were a season-best 18 games over .500. Milwaukee has spent a total of 76 days in first place this season, and they seemed primed for an October appearance, yet since the Major League Baseball trade deadline on July 31, the Brewers are 11-12, all the while losing significant ground on the Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central.

General manager David Stearns — a hero among Brewers fans and the architect of one of the quickest rebuilds in recent memory — was an active participant in the trade market, though the trades he executed were seen by some as confusing and unnecessary. Stearns acquired third baseman Mike Moustakas (106 wRC+) and second baseman Jonathan Schoop (90 wRC+) right before the final buzzer sounded. To the surprise of the masses, the Brewers watched the trade deadline expire without acquiring a starting pitcher. On Tuesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com tweeted the following:

The argument can be made that Milwaukee’s biggest weakness leading up to the deadline was its offense. Not many can disagree with that sentiment. For the season, the Brewers have been shut out 10 times, and have scored two or fewer runs 42 times in the team’s 121 games, for a record of 9-33 in those contests. Their 92 wRC+ as a team in the first half ranked 19th in the majors. The Brewers needed offense, and Stearns attempted to address that need when he acquired Moustakas and Schoop. Though those two haven’t exactly elevated the offense — at least so far — as much as the Brewers had hoped, at least the front office made an attempt to bring more runs to the team.

The same cannot be said for the pitching side of the club, and that’s where Stearns may have made a mistake.

Let’s first look at how Milwaukee’s rotation has performed before and after the trade deadline.

ERA FIP wOBA against
Before 7/31 3.80 4.30 .303
After 7/31 4.58 4.88 .336

Stearns has said over and over that he and his front office value his team’s starting pitching more than the outside world. That’s been the case all season. But it wasn’t hard to see regression was coming as quick as another Avengers movie,  and even Stearns had to know his starters — the best one being Jhoulys Chacin — couldn’t keep this up. No move was made, however, as the Brewers showed interest in the starting pitching market, but failed to pull the trigger on any deal. As a result, Milwaukee’s rotation has been unreliable since July 31.

We can’t judge Stearns’ inaction just by the Brewers’ rotation alone. We must also look at how the starting pitchers who were traded at the deadline have fared since joining their new teams to see if any of them would’ve been a significant upgrade. (Apologies if I left someone out.)

ERA FIP WAR
Chris Archer* 4.91 3.81 0.3
Kevin Gausman* 2.00 3.15 0.6
J.A. Happ 2.37 3.94 0.6
Lance Lynn 3.81 2.04 1.0
Cole Hamels 0.79 2.36 1.2

*does not include their starts on 8/26

Every pitcher on the table above — with the exception of Archer — has been absolutely brilliant (small sample size alert) since switching teams. Gausman seems to be finally reaching his potential, Happ is as reliable as ever, Lynn has figured something out after a miserable short tenure with Minnesota and Hamels thinks it’s 2011 again. The Brewers were rumored to have interest in all of these pitchers, and although I didn’t see anything that linked him to Milwaukee, Mike Fiers — who was traded after the non-waiver deadline — has been lights out with the Athletics, as well. Aside from Archer, acquiring these players came at a relatively low cost, a cost the Brewers could’ve easily managed.

Stearns’ love for the rotation he constructed has cost the Brewers wins, and it has allowed the Brewers to play second fiddle to the Cubs once again. A rotation consisting of Chacin, Junior Guerra, Freddy Peralta, Chase Anderson and Wade Miley — who has the second-largest difference between his ERA (2.32) and FIP (3.99) among starters with at least 50 innings — doesn’t inspire much faith, except, apparently, to Stearns. For a team that has playoff hopes, and for a team who, on paper, has a formidable offensive lineup, the rotation is a sight for sore eyes, and Stearns should be criticized for not improving it.

The Brewers still have the ability to add a starter or two if they claim someone on revocable waivers or work out a deal for a player who went unclaimed. However, the market is rather dry, and there aren’t too many eye-opening arms out there. Milwaukee has shown interest in Nationals’ starter Gio Gonzalez, and although his 2018 performance to date has been disappointing, he could still give the Brewers some quality innings down the stretch.

Stearns said “we’ll find out” when asked if he made a mistake by not acquiring a starting pitcher. Well, I think we can safely say that he did, and while there are other factors involved, it’s a big reason why Milwaukee’s playoff odds have significantly dropped.