Tag Archives: Jhoulys Chacin

Jhoulys Chacin is keeping the ball in the park

Let’s begin with Jhoulys Chacin‘s projections from before the season.

ERA FIP
RW23 3.78 4.21
Steamer 4.58 4.58
ZiPS 4.77 4.74
Actual 3.71 3.92

As you can clearly see, RW23 — my own projection system — has been right on the nose so far when it comes to projecting Chacin, more so than the well-known projections systems of Steamer and ZiPS. And there’s a reason for that. There’s actually a big reason as to why Chacin has been so good in 2018. You can probably guess what that reason is based on the title of this post.That’s right. Chacin has stopped giving up home runs. Well, he’s still technically giving up home runs. He’s given up seven this season, in fact, but he’s been able to keep the ball in the yard better than almost every other starting major league pitcher.Here are the leaders of home-run-to-fly-ball percentage among qualified starters in 2017:

Name HR/FB%
1 Trevor Bauer 5.3%
2 Luis Severino 6.5%
3 Mike Clevinger 6.7%
4 Jhoulys Chacin 6.8%
5 Justin Verlander 7.2%

Only three pitchers with enough innings to qualify have allowed fewer home runs per fly ball than Chacin. The 30-year-old veteran is running his lowest HR/FB% since his last year with the Colorado Rockies in 2013. His ability to keep the ball in the yard is why his ERA and FIP look great, but also why his xFIP — which normalizes home runs based on fly ball rate — sits at a meaty 4.72.We can figure out why hitters aren’t connecting for home runs by simply looking at Chacin’s exit velocity on fly balls. As of July 1, that number is 90.7 mph, meaning the average fly ball hit off Chacin averages 90.7 mph off the bat. Only sixteen starting pitchers have done a better job at limiting hard contact on fly balls.This chart shows Chacin’s exit velocity on fly balls over the last three seasons, along with his HR/FB%.

Year FB Exit Velocity HR/FB%
2016 91.9 mph 11.0%
2017 89.9 mph 11.4%
2018 90.7 mph 6.8%

This season isn’t even Chacin’s best when it comes to fly-ball exit velocity. That feat happened a year ago, though he somehow still managed to give up quite a bit more home runs than he has in 2018 thus far. And he was pitching in notorious pitcher-friendly Petco Park in San Diego! And therein lies the problem. Chacin is due for regression, and it’s quite possible that it will hit hard and hit fast.

As you already know, Chacin’s HR/FB% is the second lowest of his career. That’s good. His fly-ball percentage, though, is the highest of his career save for 2012 when he played at Coors Field. That’s bad. Here are those sentences in picture form.Chacin is allowing more fly balls than ever before, yet he’s giving up the fewest number of long balls of his career. That’s incredibly unsustainable. To make things even more confusing, his home stadium is Miller Park, a haven for home runs. But looking more closely at the numbers, it kind of makes sense in a way. Chacin has pitched a total of 97 innings, with 57.2 of those innings coming on the road. He’s thrown just 39.1 innings in homer-happy Miller Park. That, along with his low exit velocity, could explain why his HR/FB% is so low.

Except it doesn’t.

FB% HR/FB%
Home 37.4% 4.7%
Road 35.9% 8.3%

He’s giving up more fly balls at Miller Park than on the road but fewer home runs. Nothing about Chacin’s season makes sense, which is why what he’s doing won’t be able to last much longer.

Chacin has been a pleasant surprise for the Milwaukee Brewers, and he’s making those who clamored for the team to sign a high-profile pitcher this offseason look foolish. But unless the entire 2018 season is an outlier, Chacin just won’t be able to keep this up. I’m sorry to burst any bubbles, but despite his 3.71 ERA and equally strong 3.92 FIP, Chacin should be one of the reasons why general manager David Stearns should acquire pitching help before the trade deadline.

Projecting Jhoulys Chacin

The Milwaukee Brewers have been relatively quiet this winter. With money to spend and the urge to spend it for the first time in a handful of years, the expectation was that the Brewers would make a big splash in free agency. David Stearns has been rumored to be interested in Jake Arrieta, and it’s no secret the team would be in favor of re-signing Neil Walker. And while there’s still plenty of time for those moves or other noteworthy acquisitions to happen, the Brewers have decided to make plays for under-the-radar and low-cost players.

Their first “significant” offseason move was bringing back an old friend in Yovani Gallardo on a $2 million contract that includes incentives. After two forgettable seasons with Seattle and Baltimore, there’s no guarantee the former Brewers’ ace makes the roster, and even if he does, he’ll probably be used as a long reliever rather than a starter. The acquisition of Gallardo didn’t — for good reason — make much noise around baseball, but a few days later the Brewers made another move that, while not flashy at its base, has the potential to be great.

On Thursday the team announced that it had signed Jhoulys Chacin to a frontloaded two-year contract worth $15.5 million that includes a $1.5 million signing bonus. At face value, Chacin seems like a league-average pitcher. In 2017 he posted a 3.89 ERA and a 4.26 FIP on his way to a 2.3 WAR over 32 starts. His career numbers aren’t nearly as positive, but he provided optimism with the Padres last year. His slider is considered one of the best in the game, and that’s backed up by this fact:

Chacin also forced more swings-and-misses via his slider than Chris Sale. That’s right, Chris Sale. The right-hander threw his slider almost 35 percent of the time last season and limited hitters to a lowly .155 batting average against it. As a result, Chacin finished with the 14th-highest groundball rate (49.1 percent) among qualified pitchers. He’ll need to continue to do that in Miller Park, a stadium known as a hitter’s paradise due to the amount of home runs it allows.

The biggest knock on Chacin is his home/road splits and his difficulty in getting out left-handed hitters. Chase Anderson also suffered from the latter problem until the Brewers altered where he stood on the mound last season, and he just turned in his best year to date. I’m not saying Chacin will automatically dominate lefties if he makes the same adjustment, but it’s definitely a possibility, and there’s absolutely no harm in trying. The home/road splits are more of an issue. Chacin threw in pitcher friendly Petco Park in 2017 and was unbelievably great (1.79 ERA, 3.80 FIP) at home. However, he was very different away from his home stadium (6.53 ERA, 4.85 FIP), and that’s somewhat worrisome going forward. Miller Park is considered a hitter’s park, so it’ll be interesting to see how he adjusts to his new atmosphere. Limiting home runs will be key to his success.

Here’s how RW23 projects Chacin to perform in 2018:

IP ERA FIP xFIP K/9 BB/9 K% BB% HR WHIP BABIP
RW23 161.1 3.78 4.20 4.07 8.08 3.43 21.2% 9.0% 19 1.29 .282