Tag Archives: Eric Thames

One stat that explains why Eric Thames is for real

Eric Thames is in the MVP conversation. He may not be leading the charge, but he’s definitely among consideration. In the National League, the strongest man alive (probably) ranks sixth in WAR (1.8), fourth in wRC+ (183) and is tied for second with 13 home runs. He’s also a big reason as to why the Brewers are over .500 and in first place of the NL Central — which is just as astounding as Kim Kardashian’s level of fame. So yes, he’s right up there with Bryce Harper for MVP votes.

The critics, pundits and idiots — hi, John Lackey — choose to believe Thames is on performance-enhancing drugs, because, of course, that’s the only explanation for Lackey not being good. But that’s a silly statement, and one that’s been denied time and time again by the numerous negative samples Thames has produced for Major League Baseball thus far. We won’t spend anymore time on these lunatics.

The truth is that Thames is refusing to swing at bad pitches and is crushing the good ones. It’s really as simple as that. He’s always had power. But now that his eye at the plate is superior, so is his performance. And there’s a new statistic that leads us to believe his performance is the real deal.

A few weeks ago, Statcast rolled out  new stat called xwOBA or expected weighted on-base average. I’ll let the folks at Statcast give you the definition.

Expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) is formulated using exit velocity and launch angle, two metrics measured by Statcast.

In the same way that each batted ball is assigned a Hit Probability, every batted ball has been given a single, double, triple and home run probability based on the results of comparable batted balls — in terms of exit velocity and launch angle — since Statcast was implemented Major League wide in 2015

To sum up,  xwOBA is what a player’s wOBA is expected to be based on exit velocity and launch angle. Simple enough. For example, Freddie Freeman has the highest xwOBA in MLB with a mark of .463 (minimum of 100 plate appearances), while his actual wOBA is .491, which is behind only Harper and Ryan Zimmerman. Freeman has been absolutely demolishing the ball and both his xwOBA and wOBA portray that.

This is where Thames comes in.

Thames has a .396 xwOBA — the 23rd-highest mark in baseball. That’s better than Justin Upton, Robinson Cano and Manny Machado. His actual wOBA, however, is .464. That’s a pretty large difference, and at this point you may be confused about the title of this post. If he’s outperforming expectations, why do I believe he’s still for real?

Well, because Freddie Freeman isn’t going to finish with a .491 wOBA. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if his final wOBA fell beneath .400. Last season, only six players finished with a wOBA of .400 or higher, and one of them was the greatest player on earth. In 2015, only five players completed that feat. In other words, it’s not easy to do. If Thames finishes with his xwOBA of .396, that’ll probably be among the top 10. Kris Bryant had a .396 wOBA in 2016, and he won MVP.

RW23 projected Thames for 31 home runs and a .360 wOBA. Odds are he exceeds both. I don’t know if he’ll still be in the MVP conversation in August or September, but it’s May, and he’s still smack dab in the middle of it, and according to his xwOBA, he’s for real. Thames will come down to earth, and he won’t hit 11 home runs every month. But his performance isn’t Chris Shelton-esque (if you don’t remember him, look him up). He made real changes in Korea and has translated those changes to MLB.

But it must be the steroids, right?

Bold predictions for the 2017 Milwaukee Brewers

I’ve never published bold predictions on here before. In large part I’ve focused on providing analysis and staying away from clickbait articles, especially when my site was in its infancy. But this year I wanted to try it. Plus, when the season wraps up, you can all laugh at me and tell me how stupid I am. That’s what the internet’s for, right?

Here are my five bold predictions for the 2017 Milwaukee Brewers:

1. Eric Thames will lead the Brewers in home runs

Thames is coming back to the major leagues after a three-year hiatus in Korea where he played like Barry Bonds. He launched 147 home runs in the KBO league and earned a three-year, $16 million deal from the Brewers, which could ultimately be the steal of the offseason.

RW23 thinks he’ll finish with 31 home runs this season, besting Ryan Braun and Domingo Santana for the lead. With the power he showed in Korea and his perceived plate discipline improvement, it comes as little surprise that other projection models are spitting out similar numbers.

2. Domingo Santana will be Milwaukee’s best hitter

I’ve been driving Domingo’s bandwagon since he was acquired from Houston, and I went more in depth about my love for him in an article a few weeks ago. But to sum up, I think he’ll produce the highest wRC+ on the Brewers.

Santana hits the ball hard (he had one of the highest increases in exit velocity from 2015 to 2016), which should lead to more home runs and better production in 2017. His plate discipline is tremendous, but he’ll flourish even more if he becomes just a little more aggressive. He took too many called strikes in 2016 and will need to take the bat off his shoulder if my prediction has a chance to come through. He has a real chance to be an All-Star.

3. Kirk Nieuwenhuis will not make the Opening Day roster

This maybe shouldn’t be classified as a “bold” prediction, but I’m putting it on here nonetheless. The Brewers have a plethora of young, highly regarded outfielders who will eventually need playing time. Therefore, Nieuwenhuis could be the odd-man out, despite hitting 13 home runs in limited playing time a season ago.

Nieuwenhuis is a useful bat off the bench, but at this point of his career, he is what he is. He’s produced just one season as an above-average hitter and will never get on base at a consistent clip. I believe Michael Reed — who has more upside — will take his spot on the 25-man roster, as Nieuwenhuis is owed just $900,000 this season. Cutting him loose will be easy.

4. Jacob Barnes will take over the closer’s role at some point

Barnes is really good. Like really, really good. RW23 absolutely adores him, and with his high strikeout rate and exceptional command that he showed throughout the minors and last year during his rookie debut, I think he’ll eventually supplant Neftali Feliz as closer, who will struggle a bit for the Brewers. He struck out 24 percent of batters faced and allowed just one home run in 26.2 innings last season, along with a 2.70 ERA and an even better 2.36 FIP.

If Feliz doesn’t adapt well in Milwaukee, Corey Knebel might get the first shot to replace him, but Barnes has the stuff to be a lockdown late-inning guy.

5. Ryan Braun doesn’t get traded

I thought for sure he’d be gone by now. After a 133 wRC+ season, Braun’s value is the highest its been since 2012, and I was convinced David Stearns would take advantage of that. But spring training games have started, and Braun remains a Brewer. I now believe he’ll remain one for the duration of the season.

However, I do think he’ll be traded this winter, especially if he produces at a high level again. But if he were to take a step back, Stearns may be kicking himself for not finding a trade partner sooner.