Tag Archives: Christian Yelich

Random stats and the Milwaukee Brewers

We are over two months into the 2019 Major League Baseball season, and we’ve already been witness to some weird and funky things, not just with the Milwaukee Brewers, but around the league as a whole. Derek Dietrich and Tommy La Stella have both turned into Barry Bonds. Hunter Pence thinks it’s 2011. And Joey Gallo has a .395 BABIP (ban the shift though, right?).

The Brewers also have had their fair share of interesting stories. Some good and some bad. I thought it’d be fun to take a look at a few stats you don’t normally come across. Below I’ve highlighted a few Brewers players whom I’ve found fascinating so far this season. Some of these statistics mean something. Some of these don’t.

Christian Yelich posted a a 213 wRC+ in March/April. In May, his wRC+ sits at 136, which is still great, but definitely not MVP-caliber. His strikeout rate has risen over three percent, while his groundball rate has also gone up.

Jesus Aguilar is striking out less, he’s making nearly the same amount of contact and has an identical exit velocity as he did in 2018. The issue, it would seem, is how he’s hitting the ball. Aguilar’s launch angle has gone from 16.2 degrees to 12.9 degrees. That’s a considerable drop, and it’s the main culprit for his increased groundball rate (up eight percent) and decreased fly-ball rate (down five percent).

Yasmani Grandal has two triples. The Miami Marlins have just one triple. Grandal is in the 12th percentile in sprint speed, making this even more hilarious and more embarrassing for the already laughable Marlins.

Alex Claudio has allowed a .250 wOBA versus lefties and a .450 wOBA against righties. Right-handed hitters are slashing .342/.405/.684 against Claudio, so maybe it’s time to use Claudio as a specialist.

Brandon Woodruff has a 1.36 ERA and a 2.70 FIP over his last five starts. He’s struck out 31.9 percent of batters during that span. No wonder teams were trying to pry him away from the Brewers during last year’s trade deadline.

Lorenzo Cain currently has a career-low batting average on balls in play of .292. He owns a career BABIP mark of .342, so one could expect Cain’s production to skyrocket once the positive regression bug bites him. His exit velocity is down a bit, but not enough to explain a below-league average BABIP.

Corbin Burnes has the 13th-highest strikeout rate (30.3 percent) in baseball among pitchers with at least 30 innings pitched. His other stats all look atrocious, but it’s clear the talent is there. Be patient with the man.

Josh Hader has the highest strikeout rate of 51.5 percent among qualified relievers. That’s good. But he’s also getting mashed when hitters make contact with his pitchers. That’s not good. Hader has allowed an exit velocity of 91.9 mph, which is in the third percentile. Only 13 pitchers have allowed harder contact. Ouch.

Eric Thames hasn’t homered since April 24, despite getting the bulk of the playing time. Thames has still managed to be a productive hitter even without his Hulk power. He’s getting on base at a .365 clip and has an above-league average wRC+ of 109.

Christian Yelich or Javier Baez for National League MVP?

The talk around Major League Baseball over the last few days has centered around the National League MVP discussion, with Christian Yelich of the Milwaukee Brewers and Javier Baez of the Chicago Cubs at the forefront of the discussion. The aforementioned players should be considered the favorites to take home the award, no matter what Odds Shark criminally says. And that’s what this article is about, yet for those who read this site regularly (thank you so much), this will be a little different than usual. While there will still be some analytics dripped in, this post will mostly consist of a rant that Ryen Russillo would be proud of, because frankly, I’m a little annoyed about this MVP discussion, and I think I deserve to speak my mind. So I’m just going to start typing and see where the keyboard leads me.

***Side note: Before Cardinals’ fans get all up on their perch and start tweeting me that Matt Carpenter should be involved in this discussion, let me just say that I wholeheartedly agree. He’s been more valuable than Baez, in my opinion.

But back to the Yelich vs. Baez debate. My frustration started with Dan Patrick.

On Tuesday, Dan Patrick of The Dan Patrick Show aired his usual “Play of the Day” segment, and for the first time in probably the show’s history, a Milwaukee Brewers’ play was featured. The play just so happened to be Yelich hitting for his second cycle of the season. That’s great! Finally, a small-market team getting some love and publicity on a national radio show. Ahhh, life is good. But then Patrick starts talking about Yelich and pronounces Yelich’s last name as “Yelick”. He does this not once, but twice. Now, I know Patrick isn’t that in-tune with baseball, because he still thinks pitcher wins and RBIs matter and are a good judge of skill, but he’s still a relatively smart guy when it comes to sports. He should, at the very least, know an MVP candidate’s name, even if the candidate plays a sport The Dan Patrick Show never touches on. But because Yelich plays for the Brewers and not the Cubs, Yankees or Red Sox, Patrick butchers the name because, in all honestly, he probably couldn’t pick Yelich out of a lineup. It’s sad, but true, kind of like my love life.

So that happened. And then this was tweeted:

Bleacher Nation is a popular Chicago Cubs blog that tweets to nearly 80,000 followers (follow him here, he needs more followers). The First Out At Third — you know, the thing you’re currently reading — is a Milwaukee Brewers blog that tweets to 560 followers. And yet, in this case, the popular guy is dead wrong. Raise your hand if you’re shocked. Let’s dissect Bleacher Nation’s tweet starting with the fact he (Bleacher Nation) thinks that Baez is an equal hitter to Yelich. *Insert laughing crying emoji*

Here’s a table that shows that is unequivocally untrue.

Yelich .319 .385 .569 .954 .404 154
Baez .294 .329 .569 .897 .372 134

You see those numbers up there that are in bold? Those are the categories in which Yelich leads Baez, and it’s really not all that close either. Try again, Nation. Besides, do we really want to give the MVP to someone who has a .329 on-base percentage? Hell, I have a higher OBP than that.

Bleacher Nation also states that Baez plays incredible defense at multiple infield positions. It’s true that Baez plays solid defense at more than one position, but to color it incredible? I don’t think so. Baez has posted 5 defensive runs saved at shortstop, 2 DRS at second base and 2 DRS at shortstop this season. League average is zero for those new to the Defensive Run Statistic. Baez has good range and a strong arm, but the word “incredible” should be saved for those who deserve it, like Andrelton Simmons. Yelich, on the other hand, has won a Gold Glove in the past as an outfielder and is capable of manning multiple outfield positions. While his DRS numbers (3 DRS in right field) are down a smidge in 2018, he’s still considered a top-notch defender, and definitely not an inferior glovesman to Baez. Next argument, Nation.

Baez runs the bases as well as anyone in baseball, or so Bleacher Nation would have you believe. Let’s take a gander down the road of baserunning statistics! Buckle up, Cubs’ fans, because it’s going to be a bumpy ride.

If you go to FanGraphs and click on its baserunning statistic, you’ll see both Yelich and Baez on the first page of the leaderboard. But like the United States Olympic Men’s Hockey team in 1980, Yelich is the winner over Baez. (Yes, I did in fact compare Yelich to the gold-medal winning 1980 Olympic hockey team). Yelich has been worth 5.3 BsR — the 11th-highest total in MLB. Baez sits all the way down at 26th with a 3.8 BsR. To sum up like Inigo Montoya in The Princess Bride, Baez is truthfully — I know it’s sometimes hard for Cubs’ fans to tell the truth — not one of the best baserunners in all of baseball. But Yelich sure is.

Now, I honestly didn’t mean to call out Bleacher Nation as much as I did, but I like dealing with facts when it comes to baseball talk. The facts speak for themselves, even though I just wrote them down for you all in case you didn’t hear them the first time.

You can probably tell by now that I’m a Brewers’ fan, and that of course I’m going to side with Yelich over Baez. While the former is true, readers of this site should know I’m not a biased fan. Go through my archives. Look at my most recent article in which I called out Brewers general manager David Stearns. While I’m not biased, that doesn’t mean I don’t get to side with the Brewers from time to time, which is why I have no qualms saying Yelich should be the National League MVP, and there’s one more argument I have to bolster my case.

According to FanGraphs’ WAR, Yelich has been the most valuable player in the National League this season with 6.1 WAR. Lorenzo Cain — Yelich’s teammate — is second on the leaderboard, with Baez tied with Anthony Rendon at 5.3 WAR for third place. WAR isn’t the end-all and be-all statistic, but it’s pretty damn telling, and it’s telling us that Yelich deserves the MVP.

And here’s the final killshot: Without Javier Baez, the Chicago Cubs would still be a playoff team. Without Christian Yelich, the Brewers wouldn’t even be sniffing a Wild Card berth.

You’re right, Bleacher Nation, this isn’t a difficult MVP decision.

Quick take: Projecting Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain

The Milwaukee Brewers are going for it. They’re all in. They almost got a taste of October baseball in last season, and now, in 2018, they want everything. But, unlike in past seasons, they’re building up for long-term success. General manager David Stearns isn’t messing around, and he proved that by executing two high-profile moves almost simultaneously on Thursday night.

The Brewers brought highly coveted Christian Yelich (4.5 WAR in ’17) from the Miami Marlins to Milwaukee in exchange for Lewis Brinson, Monte Harrison, Isan Diaz and Jordan Yamamoto, while also signing free agent outfielder Lorenzo Cain (4.1 WAR) to a five-year, $80 million deal. In an instant, the Brewers lost their top prospect in Brinson while substantially upgrading their outfield, not only offensively, but on the defensive side as well. In fact, they have a chance to own one of baseball’s most improved defensive outfields when it’s all said and done. With Cain’s lightning speed and Yelich’s career 20 defensive runs saved, hitters are going to have a tough time finding gaps in the outfield grass.

Yelich, who just turned 26, is under team control through 2021 with a club option for 2022. He’ll make $7 million in 2018 before seeing his salary rise every year until the end of his deal. He’s coming off back-to-back 4.5 WAR seasons and produced a 115 wRC+ in 695 plate appearances last year. Moving away from Marlins Park to a hitter-friendly stadium in Miller Park should only help his production at the plate, and we could see a huge breakout season from the young left-handed hitter.

Here’s what RW23 projects from Yelich in 2018:

RW23 672 580 .300 .386 .502 .889 .203 .382 20.2% 11.8% .349 26

RW23 absolutely loves Yelich, predicting that he’ll set career marks in numerous categories. This may be a little optimistic — especially considering what I’ve seen from ZiPS — but it’s encouraging nonetheless.

Lorenzo Cain will be in his age-32 season when 2018 commences, and while Yelich figures to be more valuable with the bat, Cain projects to be the better outfielder. He saved five runs in 2017 after posting a 29 DRS in 2015 and 2016 combined. Cain is known for his speed, and even if that skill begins to decline with age, there’s reason to believe it won’t be that big of a problem. He immediately helps the Brewers in every facet of the game, and his $80 million contract is fair shake for both sides.

Here’s what RW23 projects from Cain in 2018:

RW23 610 553 .292 .350 .417 .767 .125 .334 17.6% 7.7% .338 14

Not surprisingly, RW23 is enamored with Cain as well. I didn’t include stolen bases in the table above, but RW23 has pegged Cain for 23 stolen bases, though I see that number being considerably higher.

Now, I’ll have more on these two moves early next week — like where this leaves Domingo Santana and Brett Phillips — but I wanted to at least get RW23’s projections out to the world tonight. And the projections are optimistic as heck, so take them with a grain of salt. But also be excited as Brewers fans.

And the last thing I wanted to say is this: The Brewers aren’t throwing everything into the ring for 2018. No. These two moves are intended to, yes, help the team win this season, but to also set them up for a run of numerous competitive seasons. Stearns knows exactly what he’s doing, and he’s nowhere close to being done yet. Expect them to add a starting pitcher very soon.