Category Archives: Projections

Reviewing the hitter projections for the 2018 Milwaukee Brewers

Phew.

What a season. What an incredible, outta-this-world fun and heart-wrenching season the 2018 campaign turned out to be. When Mike Moustakas swung and missed on a pitch in the dirt from Clayton Kershaw to end the Milwaukee Brewers’ Cinderella story, I was broken, and yet, so thrilled and happy I was able to witness playoff baseball in Miller Park once again.

With that being said, I needed time away from the Brewers and from baseball, which is why this site has been silent for awhile. I needed to process what happened and I needed to decompress. That’s over with now. I’m ready to start thinking and writing about the Milwaukee Brewers again.

So let’s review the season by looking over the preseason projections from The First Out At Third’s own system (RW23), Steamer and ZiPS. In 2017, RW23 was fairly accurate with its hitter projections, while it struggled with pitchers. My computer took a dive just before the season started, so I was unable to project hurlers this year, though I did manage to get my hitter projections out to the world. Let’s see how they stacked up against the powerhouses of Steamer and ZiPs.

***Note: My preseason projections included Jonathan Villar, Eric Sogard, Domingo Santana, Jett Bandy and Stephen Vogt, but because Villar was traded, Sogard, Santana and Bandy barely spent any time with the team and Vogt missed the entire season, I decided not to include them below. If you have issues with this decision, take it up with the league office.

C Manny Pina

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP SB HR
RW23 333 304 .245 .301 .370 .671 .125 .295 23.1% 6.4% .299 1 8
Steamer 231 210 .251 .306 .388 .694 .137 .300 20.5% 6.5% .297 1 5
ZiPS 339 311 .248 .299 .386 .685 .138 .295 19.5% 5.9% .288 2 8
Actual 337 306 .252 .307 .395 .702 .144 .301 18.4% 6.2% .285 2 9

Winner: Steamer

All three projection systems foresaw Pina’s fall back to earth after a career year in 2017. Steamer just happened to be a bit more spot on than RW23 and ZiPS. It remains to be seen if Pina will be Milwaukee’s starting backstop in 2018, though one should expect him to be on the 25-man roster.

1B Eric Thames

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP SB HR
RW23 489 419 .243 .348 .499 .846 .256 .363 30.2% 12.8% .306 4 26
Steamer 508 437 .251 .346 .488 .834 .236 .352 27.2% 11.5% .309 6 26
ZiPS 516 441 .240 .345 .510 .855 .270 .358 30.6% 12.6% .300 7 29
Actual 278 247 .219 .306 .478 .783 .259 .330 34.9% 10.4% .284 7 16

Winner: N/A

Thames lost playing time to Jesus Aguilar soon after the season started, and he proved he wasn’t a reliable option off the bench, highlighted by the fact the Brewers refused to put him on their postseason roster. Thames looked lost at the plate all year, and none of the projection systems saw it coming. There’s no winners here.

3B/2B Travis Shaw

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP SB HR
RW23 595 527 .277 .353 .535 .888 .258 .376 23.2% 10.1% .315 9 33
Steamer 580 516 .249 .323 .454 .777 .205 .328 23.4% 9.3% .286 5 26
ZiPS 573 515 .256 .323 .472 .795 .216 .335 23.2% 8.6% .294 7 26
Actual 587 498 .241 .345 .480 .825 .239 .351 18.4% 13.3% .242 5 32

Winner: ZiPS

Though RW23 was correct in projecting that Shaw was capable of putting up similar — if not better — power numbers to 2017, it was a little too bullish on the Brewers infielder, giving ZiPS its first win. Shaw was the victim of some BABIP bad luck, and I expect his average and OBP to rise in 2019.

SS Orlando Arcia

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP SB HR
RW23 592 544 .278 .331 .431 .762 .152 .326 16.9% 7.0% .312 15 17
Steamer 551 503 .262 .313 .405 .717 .143 .305 17.5% 6.7% .296 14 14
ZiPS 599 554 .256 .305 .401 .706 .144 .299 18.2% 6.3% .292 16 16
Actual 366 348 .236 .268 .307 .576 .072 .253 23.8% 4.1% .305 7 3

Winner: ZiPS

We can just copy what I wrote about Thames and paste it here, because, boy, Arcia was just a bag of off-balanced swings during the regular season. He turned it on in October, but that doesn’t erase his miserable six months prior to that. Once again, RW23 hyped up Arcia, and while Steamer and ZiPS didn’t think he’d be this dreadful, the win goes to the latter.

OF Ryan Braun

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP SB HR
RW23 475 428 .280 .345 .490 .835 .210 .356 18.3% 8.6% .308 7 20
Steamer 475 426 .277 .344 .496 .840 .219 .353 19.3% 8.8% .304 10 22
ZiPS 472 426 .284 .347 .495 .843 .211 .354 18.9% 8.3% .316 12 20
Actual 447 405 .254 .313 .469 .782 .215 .330 19.0% 7.6% .274 11 20

Winner: ZiPS

A .313 on-base percentage for Braun is shocking, though his career-low .274 BABIP explains it a little. I didn’t want to give ZiPS the win here, as all three projection systems missed the mark again, but I guess ZiPS was the closest. I honestly have no idea.

OF Lorenzo Cain

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP SB HR
RW23 610 553 .292 .350 .417 .767 .125 .334 17.6% 7.7% .338 23 14
Steamer 593 533 .283 .344 .437 .781 .154 .335 17.7% 7.6% .324 16 16
ZiPS 579 530 .283 .339 .426 .765 .143 .328 16.6% 7.1% .322 22 14
Actual 620 539 .308 .395 .417 .813 .109 .359 15.2% 11.5% .357 30 10

Winner: RW23

RW23 thought that Cain would be a force at the top of Milwaukee’s batting order, but Cain exceeded expectations in nearly every category, and earned himself a handful of MVP votes. Meanwhile, RW23 finally finds the win column.

OF Christian Yelich

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP SB HR
RW23 672 580 .300 .386 .502 .889 .203 .382 20.2% 11.8% .349 15 26
Steamer 647 560 .296 .381 .491 .871 .195 .371 20.2% 11.4% .348 12 23
ZiPS 682 598 .289 .371 .472 .843 .182 .360 20.8% 11.1% .346 16 21
Actual 651 574 .326 .402 .598 1.000 .272 .422 20.7% 10.4% .373 22 36

Winner: RW23

The first convincing win for RW23, as it projected Yelich’s career year. The Brewers outfielder brought home the National League MVP and displayed a power force he never showed during his time in Miami. It seems rather unlikely Yelich can hit 36 home runs again in 2019, but is it really sane to put expectations on him anymore?

UTIL Hernan Perez

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP SB HR
RW23 355 333 .273 .309 .430 .739 .157 .319 17.0% 5.1% .300 8 12
Steamer 183 172 .258 .293 .398 .691 .141 .295 19.2% 4.5% .298 6 5
ZiPS 474 446 .269 .299 .426 .725 .157 .307 18.1% 4.2% .305 15 13
Actual 334 316 .253 .290 .386 .676 .133 .292 21.3% 5.1% .300 11 9

Winner: Steamer

Perez had a typical Hernan Perez season. No walks and no on-base skills. There’s not much else to say about his season. I gave Steamer the win, despite being off on his playing time numbers.

1B Jesus Aguilar

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP SB HR
RW23 82 74 .249 .314 .450 .764 .201 .330 28.8% 7.7% .311 0 4
Steamer 20 18 .236 .302 .426 .728 .190 .310 26.5% 7.9% .284 0 1
ZiPS 473 428 .243 .307 .428 .734 .185 .312 26.0% 7.8% .293 0 19
Actual 566 492 .274 .352 .539 .890 .264 .374 25.3% 10.2% .309 0 35

Winner: N/A

RW23 and Steamer didn’t think Aguilar would stick on the roster very long, and while ZiPS pegged him for a starting job, it vastly underestimated him as a hitter. Aguilar surprised everyone in baseball with his crushing of pitchers, and though he fell off in the second half, his season of 3.1 WAR was a tremendous success.

Final Results:

ZiPS: 3 wins

Steamer: 2 wins

RW23: 2 wins

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RW23 hitter projections for the 2018 Milwaukee Brewers

Welcome to the second annual edition of the RW23 hitter projections. RW23 — creatively named after Rickie Weeks — was created in 2017 with the help of Mike Podhorzer and his book, “Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance.”

Below you’ll find the RW23 hitter projections for the 2018 Milwaukee Brewers’ roster as of March 25, along with the Steamer and ZiPS projection systems for comparison. In its debut season, RW23’s hitter projections went toe-to-toe with Steamer, while solidly beating ZiPS.

C Manny Pina

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO wOBA K% BB% BABIP SB HR
RW23 333 304 .245 .301 .370 .671 .125 .295 23.1% 6.4% .299 1 8
Steamer 231 210 .251 .306 .388 .694 .137 .300 20.5% 6.5% .297 1 5
ZiPS 339 311 .248 .299 .386 .685 .138 .295 19.5% 5.9% .288 2 8

1B Eric Thames

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO wOBA K% BB% BABIP SB HR
RW23 489 419 .243 .348 .499 .846 .256 .363 30.2% 12.8% .306 4 26
Steamer 508 437 .251 .346 .488 .834 .236 .352 27.2% 11.5% .309 6 26
ZiPS 516 441 .240 .345 .510 .855 .270 .358 30.6% 12.6% .300 7 29

2B Jonathan Villar

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP SB HR
RW23 466 423 .255 .316 .405 .721 .150 .314 28.2% 8.2% .336 27 13
Steamer 489 434 .250 .323 .398 .721 .149 .312 27.0% 9.4% .326 29 13
ZiPS 526 472 .244 .312 .400 .713 .157 .307 28.5% 8.7% .324 34 15

3B Travis Shaw

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP SB HR
RW23 595 527 .277 .353 .535 .888 .258 .376 23.2% 10.1% .315 9 33
Steamer 580 516 .249 .323 .454 .777 .205 .328 23.4% 9.3% .286 5 26
ZiPS 573 515 .256 .323 .472 .795 .216 .335 23.2% 8.6% .294 7 26

SS Orlando Arcia

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP SB HR
RW23 592 544 .278 .331 .431 .762 .152 .326 16.9% 7.0% .312 15 17
Steamer 551 503 .262 .313 .405 .717 .143 .305 17.5% 6.7% .296 14 14
ZiPS 599 554 .256 .305 .401 .706 .144 .299 18.2% 6.3% .292 16 16

OF Ryan Braun

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP SB HR
RW23 475 428 .280 .345 .490 .835 .210 .356 18.3% 8.6% .308 7 20
Steamer 475 426 .277 .344 .496 .840 .219 .353 19.3% 8.8% .304 10 22
ZiPS 472 426 .284 .347 .495 .843 .211 .354 18.9% 8.3% .316 12 20

OF Lorenzo Cain

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP SB HR
RW23 610 553 .292 .350 .417 .767 .125 .334 17.6% 7.7% .338 23 14
Steamer 593 533 .283 .344 .437 .781 .154 .335 17.7% 7.6% .324 16 16
ZiPS 579 530 .283 .339 .426 .765 .143 .328 16.6% 7.1% .322 22 14

OF Christian Yelich

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP SB HR
RW23 672 580 .300 .386 .502 .889 .203 .382 20.2% 11.8% .349 15 26
Steamer 647 560 .296 .381 .491 .871 .195 .371 20.2% 11.4% .348 12 23
ZiPS 682 598 .289 .371 .472 .843 .182 .360 20.8% 11.1% .346 16 21

OF Domingo Santana

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP SB HR
RW23 535 460 .273 .370 .501 .871 .228 .375 28.5% 12.5% .352 13 25
Steamer 573 492 .258 .353 .468 .821 .211 .351 28.3% 12.0% .328 9 26
ZiPS 566 492 .258 .352 .472 .823 .213 .352 30.9% 11.8% .345 10 26

INF Eric Sogard

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP SB HR
RW23 401 357 .259 .336 .326 .662 .067 .298 12.3% 9.3% .293 3 2
Steamer 164 142 .262 .346 .364 .710 .102 .313 14.0% 10.6% .298 3 2
ZiPS 383 335 .257 .344 .349 .693 .093 .308 13.1% 11.0% .291 6 4

INF Hernan Perez

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP SB HR
RW23 355 333 .273 .309 .430 .739 .157 .319 17.0% 5.1% .300 8 12
Steamer 183 172 .258 .293 .398 .691 .141 .295 19.2% 4.5% .298 6 5
ZiPS 474 446 .269 .299 .426 .725 .157 .307 18.1% 4.2% .305 15 13

C Jett Bandy

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP SB HR
RW23 201 181 .228 .298 .392 .690 .164 .302 25.6% 7.3% .275 1 7
Steamer 77 70 .229 .289 .384 .673 .154 .290 22.2% 6.2% .267 1 2
ZiPS 297 266 .222 .291 .398 .689 .177 .297 21.5% 6.1% .247 1 11

C Stephen Vogt

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP SB HR
RW23 244 225 .250 .302 .451 .752 .200 .324 17.9% 6.3% .265 0 11
Steamer 176 159 .257 .318 .441 .759 .183 .322 18.9% 7.9% .283 1 7
ZiPS 405 371 .259 .314 .450 .764 .191 .323 17.3% 7.2% .280 0 15

1B Jesus Aguilar

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP SB HR
RW23 82 74 .249 .314 .450 .764 .201 .330 28.8% 7.7% .311 0 4
Steamer 20 18 .236 .302 .426 .728 .190 .310 26.5% 7.9% .284 0 1
ZiPS 473 428 .243 .307 .428 .734 .185 .312 26.0% 7.8% .293 0 19

Quick take: Projecting Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain

The Milwaukee Brewers are going for it. They’re all in. They almost got a taste of October baseball in last season, and now, in 2018, they want everything. But, unlike in past seasons, they’re building up for long-term success. General manager David Stearns isn’t messing around, and he proved that by executing two high-profile moves almost simultaneously on Thursday night.

The Brewers brought highly coveted Christian Yelich (4.5 WAR in ’17) from the Miami Marlins to Milwaukee in exchange for Lewis Brinson, Monte Harrison, Isan Diaz and Jordan Yamamoto, while also signing free agent outfielder Lorenzo Cain (4.1 WAR) to a five-year, $80 million deal. In an instant, the Brewers lost their top prospect in Brinson while substantially upgrading their outfield, not only offensively, but on the defensive side as well. In fact, they have a chance to own one of baseball’s most improved defensive outfields when it’s all said and done. With Cain’s lightning speed and Yelich’s career 20 defensive runs saved, hitters are going to have a tough time finding gaps in the outfield grass.

Yelich, who just turned 26, is under team control through 2021 with a club option for 2022. He’ll make $7 million in 2018 before seeing his salary rise every year until the end of his deal. He’s coming off back-to-back 4.5 WAR seasons and produced a 115 wRC+ in 695 plate appearances last year. Moving away from Marlins Park to a hitter-friendly stadium in Miller Park should only help his production at the plate, and we could see a huge breakout season from the young left-handed hitter.

Here’s what RW23 projects from Yelich in 2018:

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO wOBA K% BB% BABIP HR
RW23 672 580 .300 .386 .502 .889 .203 .382 20.2% 11.8% .349 26

RW23 absolutely loves Yelich, predicting that he’ll set career marks in numerous categories. This may be a little optimistic — especially considering what I’ve seen from ZiPS — but it’s encouraging nonetheless.

Lorenzo Cain will be in his age-32 season when 2018 commences, and while Yelich figures to be more valuable with the bat, Cain projects to be the better outfielder. He saved five runs in 2017 after posting a 29 DRS in 2015 and 2016 combined. Cain is known for his speed, and even if that skill begins to decline with age, there’s reason to believe it won’t be that big of a problem. He immediately helps the Brewers in every facet of the game, and his $80 million contract is fair shake for both sides.

Here’s what RW23 projects from Cain in 2018:

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO wOBA K% BB% BABIP HR
RW23 610 553 .292 .350 .417 .767 .125 .334 17.6% 7.7% .338 14

Not surprisingly, RW23 is enamored with Cain as well. I didn’t include stolen bases in the table above, but RW23 has pegged Cain for 23 stolen bases, though I see that number being considerably higher.

Now, I’ll have more on these two moves early next week — like where this leaves Domingo Santana and Brett Phillips — but I wanted to at least get RW23’s projections out to the world tonight. And the projections are optimistic as heck, so take them with a grain of salt. But also be excited as Brewers fans.

And the last thing I wanted to say is this: The Brewers aren’t throwing everything into the ring for 2018. No. These two moves are intended to, yes, help the team win this season, but to also set them up for a run of numerous competitive seasons. Stearns knows exactly what he’s doing, and he’s nowhere close to being done yet. Expect them to add a starting pitcher very soon.

Projecting Jhoulys Chacin

The Milwaukee Brewers have been relatively quiet this winter. With money to spend and the urge to spend it for the first time in a handful of years, the expectation was that the Brewers would make a big splash in free agency. David Stearns has been rumored to be interested in Jake Arrieta, and it’s no secret the team would be in favor of re-signing Neil Walker. And while there’s still plenty of time for those moves or other noteworthy acquisitions to happen, the Brewers have decided to make plays for under-the-radar and low-cost players.

Their first “significant” offseason move was bringing back an old friend in Yovani Gallardo on a $2 million contract that includes incentives. After two forgettable seasons with Seattle and Baltimore, there’s no guarantee the former Brewers’ ace makes the roster, and even if he does, he’ll probably be used as a long reliever rather than a starter. The acquisition of Gallardo didn’t — for good reason — make much noise around baseball, but a few days later the Brewers made another move that, while not flashy at its base, has the potential to be great.

On Thursday the team announced that it had signed Jhoulys Chacin to a frontloaded two-year contract worth $15.5 million that includes a $1.5 million signing bonus. At face value, Chacin seems like a league-average pitcher. In 2017 he posted a 3.89 ERA and a 4.26 FIP on his way to a 2.3 WAR over 32 starts. His career numbers aren’t nearly as positive, but he provided optimism with the Padres last year. His slider is considered one of the best in the game, and that’s backed up by this fact:

Chacin also forced more swings-and-misses via his slider than Chris Sale. That’s right, Chris Sale. The right-hander threw his slider almost 35 percent of the time last season and limited hitters to a lowly .155 batting average against it. As a result, Chacin finished with the 14th-highest groundball rate (49.1 percent) among qualified pitchers. He’ll need to continue to do that in Miller Park, a stadium known as a hitter’s paradise due to the amount of home runs it allows.

The biggest knock on Chacin is his home/road splits and his difficulty in getting out left-handed hitters. Chase Anderson also suffered from the latter problem until the Brewers altered where he stood on the mound last season, and he just turned in his best year to date. I’m not saying Chacin will automatically dominate lefties if he makes the same adjustment, but it’s definitely a possibility, and there’s absolutely no harm in trying. The home/road splits are more of an issue. Chacin threw in pitcher friendly Petco Park in 2017 and was unbelievably great (1.79 ERA, 3.80 FIP) at home. However, he was very different away from his home stadium (6.53 ERA, 4.85 FIP), and that’s somewhat worrisome going forward. Miller Park is considered a hitter’s park, so it’ll be interesting to see how he adjusts to his new atmosphere. Limiting home runs will be key to his success.

Here’s how RW23 projects Chacin to perform in 2018:

IP ERA FIP xFIP K/9 BB/9 K% BB% HR WHIP BABIP
RW23 161.1 3.78 4.20 4.07 8.08 3.43 21.2% 9.0% 19 1.29 .282

 

Reviewing the pitcher projections for the 2017 Milwaukee Brewers

The World Series is over (congratulations to World Series champion Mike Fiers) but for fans of the Milwaukee Brewers, the offseason began long ago. The Brewers missed the playoffs by an inch, and although playing in October would’ve been incredible, the season as a whole was a great success. I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again; the future is bright in Milwaukee. I fully believe this team is just a year or two away from being a perennial playoff team, something the Brewers have never really been.

But now that the season has ended, it’s time to revisit the projections by comparing my own system (RW23) that was created with the help of Mike Podhorzer and his book Projecting X 2.0, with popular projection systems Steamer and ZiPS. This was the first year I had ever created projections, and I’m curious to see how they held up.

Below you’ll find every Brewers pitcher I projected just before the season tipped off, along with Steamer and ZiPS projections, compared to said player’s actual 2017 statistical line. If you missed my hitter projection review, you can find it here.

***Note: My preseason projections included Tommy Milone, Jhan Marinez, Neftali Feliz and Taylor Jungmann, but because they were on the major league roster for such a short time, I chose not to include them below.

Junior Guerra

IP HR WHIP BABIP K/9 BB/9 K% BB% ERA FIP XFIP
RW23 162 17 1.27 .281 7.48 3.25 19.8% 8.6% 3.61 3.99 4.35
Steamer 192 25 1.39 .303 8.24 3.47 21.0% 8.9% 4.43 4.29 4.25
ZiPS 123 18 1.35 .294 8.20 3.66 20.9% 9.3% 4.24 4.54 N/A
Actual 70.1 18 1.48 .236 8.57 5.50 21.3% 13.7% 5.12 6.58 5.43

Winner: Steamer

All three projection systems — especially RW23 — missed on Guerra’s meltdown in 2017, and while Steamer and ZiPS were equally accurate, neither really deserve a win here. Yet, I’m giving it to Steamer. Guerra will be 33 by the beginning of next season, and it seems like his time with Milwaukee is most likely finished. But at least we have his 2016 brilliance as a nice memory.

Zach Davies

IP HR WHIP BABIP K/9 BB/9 K% BB% ERA FIP XFIP
RW23 168 22 1.32 .305 7.75 2.61 20.2% 6.8% 4.13 4.14 3.95
Steamer 174 23 1.36 .306 7.67 2.82 19.7% 7.3% 4.35 4.19 4.11
ZiPS 169 20 1.27 .307 7.76 2.55 20.2% 6.6% 3.99 3.91 N/A
Actual 191.1 20 1.35 .302 5.83 2.59 15.2% 6.7% 3.90 4.22 4.42

Winner: Steamer

RW23 should definitely get its props for being accurate, but Steamer still managed to edge out the win by just a hair. Once again, Davies outperformed his peripherals, while also finishing with the exact same BABIP and home runs allowed as he did in 2016. The 24 year old has proved he deserves to be in a major league rotation, even if most of his outs come in other ways than the strike out.

Jimmy Nelson

IP HR WHIP BABIP K/9 BB/9 K% BB% ERA FIP XFIP
RW23 181 21 1.35 .296 7.83 3.47 20.1% 8.9% 4.02 4.27 4.16
Steamer 120 15 1.46 .308 7.39 3.64 18.5% 9.1% 4.80 4.57 4.48
ZiPS 170 21 1.38 .307 7.57 3.39 19.2% 8.6% 4.34 4.45 N/A
Actual 175.1 16 1.25 .340 10.21 2.46 27.3% 6.6% 3.49 3.05 3.15

Winner: RW23

Neither of the three systems were particularly close when it came to projecting Nelson, but RW23 was closer to predicting his success relative to Steamer and ZiPS. Nelson broke out in 2017, and despite a crazy .340 BABIP, posted the lowest ERA, FIP and xFIP of his career. It’s really a shame he’ll miss a significant amount of time next season.

Matt Garza

IP HR WHIP BABIP K/9 BB/9 K% BB% ERA FIP XFIP
RW23 96 11 1.44 .303 6.05 3.18 15.4% 8.1% 4.45 4.46 4.53
Steamer 128 19 1.46 .308 6.54 3.06 16.5% 7.7% 4.89 4.71 4.57
ZiPS 122 18 1.43 .309 6.30 3.04 15.8% 7.6% 5.04 4.76 N/A
Actual 114.2 17 1.45 .287 6.20 3.53 15.7% 8.9% 4.94 4.91 5.12

Winner: ZiPS

ZiPS and Steamer were neck-and-neck, but I’m giving the slight edge to the former. Garza was dreadful once again, and his contract will go down as the worst free agent contract in Milwaukee Brewers franchise history. He’s now a free agent, but seeing how his last few seasons went, his career might be over. If so, he finishes a 12-year career with 23 WAR.

Wily Peralta

IP HR WHIP BABIP K/9 BB/9 K% BB% ERA FIP XFIP
RW23 125 16 1.42 .310 6.66 2.94 17.0% 7.5% 4.49 4.37 4.09
Steamer 140 18 1.45 .312 6.93 3.12 17.5% 7.9% 4.64 4.43 4.26
ZiPS 149 22 1.43 .312 6.67 3.07 16.7% 7.7% 4.81 4.70 N/A
Actual 57.1 10 1.83 .362 8.16 5.02 19.3% 11.9% 7.85 5.34 4.96

Winner: N/A

Peralta was terrible in 2017. So much so that he was optioned to the minors and subsequently designated for assignment. There are no winners here.

Chase Anderson

IP HR WHIP BABIP K/9 BB/9 K% BB% ERA FIP XFIP
RW23 138 25 1.40 .295 7.37 3.12 18.9% 8.0% 4.82 5.03 4.51
Steamer 133 18 1.37 .301 7.81 2.83 20.0% 7.2% 4.72 4.56 4.43
ZiPS 139 22 1.38 .308 7.28 2.96 18.5% 7.5% 4.64 4.67 N/A
Actual 141.1 14 1.09 .265 8.47 2.61 23.4% 7.2% 2.74 3.58 4.33

Winner: Steamer

So far the projections haven’t been able to figure out Brewers pitchers in 2017, but once again, Steamer was the closest on Anderson, particularly regarding his peripherals. Anderson posted a sub-3.00 ERA that no one saw coming, and he heads into next season as the Brewers top pitcher.

Jacob Barnes

IP HR WHIP BABIP K/9 BB/9 K% BB% ERA FIP XFIP
RW23 52 4 1.20 .293 9.09 3.12 24.5% 8.4% 3.10 3.18 3.54
Steamer 35 4 1.32 .304 8.98 3.28 23.3% 8.5% 3.94 3.84 3.88
ZiPS 53 5 1.27 .313 9.56 3.35 24.9% 8.7% 3.52 3.46 N/A
Actual 72 8 1.25 .272 10.00 4.13 26.3% 10.9% 4.00 3.88 3.67

Winner: Steamer

ZiPS had more of Barnes’ peripheral stats correct, but Steamer takes the cake with its ERA/FIP/xFIP projections. Barnes was wild and didn’t command the strike zone as well as RW23 thought he would. However, his strikeout numbers are great, and he should once again be in the back end of the bullpen and used in high-leverage situations next season.

Corey Knebel

IP HR WHIP BABIP K/9 BB/9 K% BB% ERA FIP XFIP
RW23 63 6 1.22 .297 10.32 3.48 27.6% 9.3% 3.24 3.29 3.43
Steamer 65 7 1.28 .302 10.66 3.77 27.9% 9.9% 3.56 3.49 3.56
ZiPS 54 7 1.27 .316 11.28 3.81 29.3% 9.9% 3.65 3.68 N/A
Actual 76 6 1.16 .311 14.92 4.74 40.8% 12.9% 1.78 2.53 2.97

Winner: ZiPS

I could’ve given the win to RW23, but once again, ZiPS was more consistent throughout. Knebel put together his best season of his professional career and finished with the fourth-highest strikeout rate among qualified relievers.

Carlos Torres

IP HR WHIP BABIP K/9 BB/9 K% BB% ERA FIP XFIP
RW23 73 9 1.28 .285 8.16 3.26 21.5% 8.6% 3.76 4.10 4.08
Steamer 55 7 1.36 .304 8.58 3.33 22.0% 8.6% 4.17 4.09 4.09
ZiPS 80 11 1.33 .301 8.74 3.59 22.4% 9.2% 3.92 4.29 N/A
Actual 72.2 10 1.53 .309 6.94 4.09 17.4% 10.3% 4.21 4.89 4.96

Winner: Steamer

All three systems missed the target on Torres, as his ERA rose by almost 1.5 runs from 2016. He was ourighted by Milwaukee a few weeks ago.

Jared Hughes

IP HR WHIP BABIP K/9 BB/9 K% BB% ERA FIP XFIP
RW23 62 5 1.38 .292 5.11 2.95 13.0% 7.5% 3.99 4.39 4.43
Steamer 10 1 1.46 .308 6.06 3.41 15.3% 8.6% 4.34 4.40 4.46
ZiPS 63 6 1.41 .303 5.12 2.98 N/A N/A 3.69 4.52 N/A
Actual 59.2 4 1.22 .278 7.24 3.62 19.7% 9.8% 3.02 3.93 3.98

Winner: RW23

At the time I published my original projections post, Steamer hadn’t updated Hughes’ projection. Same with ZiPS for K% and BB%. So I guess by default, RW23 is the winner. Hughes — who was another quality under-the-radar pickup by David Stearns — was an extremely valuable asset in Milwaukee’s bullpen, and the 32 year old should have a similar role in 2018.

Final Results

Steamer: 5 wins

ZiPS: 2 wins

RW23: 2 wins

Reviewing the hitter projections for the 2017 Milwaukee Brewers

The World Series is over (congratulations to World Series champion Mike Fiers) but for fans of the Milwaukee Brewers, the offseason began long ago. The Brewers missed the playoffs by an inch, and although playing in October would’ve been incredible, the season as a whole was a great success. I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again; the future is bright in Milwaukee. I fully believe this team is just a year or two away from being a perennial playoff team, something the Brewers have never really been.

But now that the season is over, it’s time to revisit the projections by comparing my own system (RW23) that was created with the help of Mike Podhorzer and his book Projecting X 2.0, with popular projection systems Steamer and ZiPS. This was the first year I had ever created projections, and I’m curious to see how they held up.

Below you’ll find every Brewers hitter I projected in the preseason, along with Steamer and ZiPS projections, compared to said player’s actual 2017 statistical line. Pitcher projection results will soon follow the publication of this article.

Manny Pina

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP HR
RW23 360 330 .246 .302 .356 .658 .110 .290 16.1% 7.0% .275 8
Steamer 109 99 .250 .305 .384 .689 .135 .298 17.2% 6.6% .282 3
ZiPS 304 278 .241 .291 .371 .662 .129 .286 16.4% 5.9% .271 6
Actual 359 330 .279 .327 .424 .751 .145 .323 22.0% 5.6% .339 9

Winner: Steamer

Even though Steamer vastly miscalculated Pina’s playing time while RW23 was dead accurate, Steamer’s projections were consistently more spot on, giving it the win. Neither of the three thought Pina would have the offensive season he mustered. Kudos to him.

Eric Thames

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP HR
RW23 535 478 .265 .334 .517 .851 .252 .360 26.4% 9.3% .308 31
Steamer 534 470 .272 .350 .515 .864 .243 .364 24.2% 9.6% .313 29
ZiPS 507 450 .247 .321 .493 .815 .247 .343 28.2% 8.7% .297 26
Actual 551 469 .247 .359 .518 .877 .271 .369 29.6% 13.6% .309 31

Winner: RW23

Another close one with Steamer, but RW23 earns its first win. It correctly predicted Thames’ home run total and was just a point off in slugging and BABIP. Thames produced an excellent season for the Brewers and was definitely a major upgrade over Chris Carter. ZiPS, meanwhile, is still looking to get on the scoreboard.

Jonathan Villar

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP HR
RW23 625 545 .260 .348 .398 .746 .137 .326 24.9% 11.8% .336 15
Steamer 641 563 .255 .333 .397 .731 .142 .318 25.3% 10.0% .329 15
ZiPS 584 515 .256 .332 .410 .742 .153 .322 26.9% 9.8% .338 15
Actual 436 403 .241 .293 .372 .665 .132 .287 30.3% 6.9% .330 11

Winner: N/A

Jonathan Villar was awful in 2017. While each system projected regression from his phenomenal and unsustainable 2016 campaign, none had him falling off the face of the earth. He eventually lost his starting job to Eric Sogard and Neil Walker, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he finds himself displaced from the roster next year.

Travis Shaw

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP HR
RW23 541 485 .254 .322 .439 .761 .185 .330 24.4% 8.7% .301 22
Steamer 388 347 .245 .314 .431 .745 .186 .319 23.3% 8.6% .286 15
ZiPS 542 492 .246 .308 .433 .741 .187 .316 22.9% 7.9% .287 20
Actual 606 538 .273 .349 .513 .862 .240 .361 23.1% 9.9% .312 31

Winner: RW23

RW23 was a little more bullish than Steamer and ZiPS, though Shaw still managed to exceed all projections and expectations. He set a career high with 31 home runs and had his best season of his career. Not the most accurate projection by RW23, but it somewhat projected his breakout.

Orlando Arcia

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP HR
RW23 580 537 .255 .304 .383 .688 .129 .300 17.5% 6.5% .293 12
Steamer 538 497 .246 .292 .375 .667 .129 .288 18.3% 5.8% .286 10
ZiPS 635 593 .245 .289 .379 .669 .135 .288 20.2% 5.5% .291 13
Actual 548 506 .277 .324 .407 .731 .130 .309 18.2% 6.6% .317 15

Winner: RW23

Once again, RW23 was overall just more consistent. Arcia managed to outperform the projections and turned out to be somewhat of a better hitter than people expected. He still only finished with an 85 wRC+, so there’s room for improvement from the 23 year old.

Ryan Braun

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP HR
RW23 555 496 .291 .355 .495 .850 .204 .362 18.6% 8.6% .320 24
Steamer 544 487 .280 .346 .492 .838 .212 .353 19.3% 8.7% .310 24
ZiPS 548 497 .282 .343 .477 .820 .195 .347 18.4% 8.0% .313 22
Actual 425 380 .268 .336 .487 .823 .218 .347 17.9% 8.9% .292 17

Winner: ZiPS

ZiPS earns its first win, as it accurately predicted Braun’s wOBA and was just a couple points off of his OPS. Braun’s home run power disappeared in 2017, and he just didn’t look like the player he used to be. With the crop of young outfielders the Brewers are ready to employ, Braun’s future is a little up in the air.

Keon Broxton

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP HR
RW23 522 456 .242 .331 .413 .743 .170 .325 31.0% 11.4% .337 15
Steamer 530 466 .222 .304 .378 .683 .156 .298 32.9% 10.2% .315 15
ZiPS 469 417 .216 .297 .408 .705 .192 .304 37.3% 10.0% .325 16
Actual 463 414 .220 .299 .420 .819 .200 .308 37.8% 8.6% .323 20

Winner: ZiPS

Keon Broxton led MLB in strikeout rate (minimum 400 PA), and ZiPS nailed it on the head with that one. ZiPS was scary accurate throughout Broxton’s projection, while RW23 turned out to be way too optimistic. The centerfielder was, however, able to knock out 20 home runs, but his 84 wRC+ left a lot to be desired.

Domingo Santana

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP HR
RW23 515 441 .256 .354 .490 .843 .234 .362 31.0% 12.3% .341 23
Steamer 517 448 .253 .343 .449 .792 .197 .342 28.8% 11.4% .327 21
ZiPS 466 408 .243 .333 .441 .774 .199 .334 32.6% 11.2% .335 19
Actual 607 525 .278 .371 .505 .875 .227 .372 29.3% 12.0% .363 30

Winner: RW23

This one wasn’t all that close. RW23 correctly predicted Santana’s breakout, particularly when it came to his power numbers. Personally, I’ve been a die-hard believer in Santana as a prospect and a player, and it’s nice to see him perform at such at high level in his 25-age season. He led the Brewers in wRC+ and while 30 home runs might be his peak, expect his OBP numbers to increase as he continues to get a better feel for the strike zone.

Hernan Perez

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP HR
RW23 315 296 .261 .296 .383 .679 .122 .295 21.6% 4.7% .314 7
Steamer 402 379 .261 .294 .385 .679 .124 .292 19.6% 4.2% .308 8
ZiPS 486 458 .266 .293 .400 .693 .133 .296 18.1% 3.7% .308 10
Actual 458 432 .259 .289 .414 .704 .155 .298 17.2% 4.4% .286 14

Winner: ZiPS

ZiPS believed Perez would get more playing than a typical utility player, and it was right. For the second straight year, Perez set a career high in home runs and is destined to play a similar role for the Brewers in 2018.

Jett Bandy

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP HR
RW23 300 280 .267 .304 .457 .761 .190 .326 17.8% 3.9% .282 14
Steamer 218 199 .237 .288 .393 .681 .156 .294 19.7% 4.9% .267 7
ZiPS 337 307 .225 .278 .378 .655 .153 .284 22.8% 4.2% .260 11
Actual 188 169 .207 .287 .349 .636 .142 .280 27.1% 8.0% .259 6

Winner: ZiPS

Bandy started out hot to begin the year, but the catcher eventually cooled and was optioned to the minors. He has raw power and RW23 expected to see that in 2017. It’s hard to envision Bandy making the Opening Day roster in 2018 with Manny Pina and Stephen Vogt still on the roster, but a eye-opening spring could keep him in Milwaukee’s plans.

Jesus Aguilar

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO WOBA K% BB% BABIP HR
RW23 145 134 .231 .283 .334 .617 .103 .273 22.3% 6.5% .280 3
Steamer 99 90 .238 .303 .411 .714 .174 .306 23.0% 7.9% .276 4
ZiPS 568 516 .250 .310 .448 .758 .198 .322 23.1% 7.6% .283 26
Actual 311 279 .265 .331 .505 .837 .240 .351 30.2% 8.0% .337 16

Winner: ZiPS

Aguilar is arguably the biggest surprise of the 2017 campaign. He’s a relatively unknown player who just happened to post a 112 wRC+ off the bench in his first full season in MLB. RW23 and Steamer didn’t believe in him at all. Sure, he had a fantastic spring training, but spring training stats are relatively meaningless. It will be interesting to see what the projections look like for Aguilar next year.

Final Results

ZiPS: 5 wins

RW23: 4 wins

Steamer: 1 win

Projecting Stephen Vogt

With the Brewers making another move to its 25-man roster, it’s time for another projection post. But don’t worry. I have a Matt Garza article scheduled for later this week, so make sure to stop by again. I mean, who doesn’t want to read about Matt Garza?

Jett Bandy — the owner of a 72 wRC+ — was optioned to Triple-A to make room for Stephen Vogt, who the Brewers claimed off waivers from the Oakland Athletics in another low-risk and cheap move by David Stearns. The former two-time All-Star Vogt will share time with incumbent Manny Pina behind the plate, but Pina figures to see most of the playing time. Vogt has earned a 94 wRC+ over his last 1.217 plate appearances but has been substantially underwhelming in 2017. He’s batting just .217 with an OBP under .300, but with a walk rate of 9.2 percent, his batted ball average of just .244 is the main culprit. His hard-hit rate is actually up compared to the last two seasons, so expect some positive regression in the second half.

Now, Vogt is 32, so by no means do the Brewers view him as a long-term option. They still believe in Bandy, and they sent him down in order to get consistent at-bats and to see if he can rediscover his confidence. Vogt and Pina make a fairly decent catching tandem, though, and RW23 projects the former as a serviceable catcher.

PA AB AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO wOBA K% BB% BABIP HR
RW23 180 163 .257 .321 .401 .722 .145 .316 16.5% 8.3% .286 5

RW23 still believes Bandy is the better option, although it’s extremely close. Bandy has more power, but Vogt is the better OBP player. He makes consistent contact and will walk a smidge more often. Hopefully, Bandy hits AAA pitching, and his demotion is short-lived. But for now, we’ll see what Vogt can do on a first-place team.