Category Archives: Free Agent Chatter

The Milwaukee Brewers should sign Collin McHugh

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The Milwaukee Brewers and Collin McHugh are a perfect fit. There’s really no feasible explanation why this pairing hasn’t happened yet. It makes complete sense. It makes less sense that McHugh is still sitting on the free agent market. Yes, there are a few warning signs that might be keeping teams away from him, from his elbow problems to his forgettable 2019 season, and while McHugh definitely carries a bit of risk, the potential greatly outweighs it. And the Brewers are all about acquiring high-potential players.

McHugh is coming off a frustrating season, a season which ended in September when he was shut down by the Houston Astros with continued pain in his elbow. He began the season as a starter, but was quickly relegated to the bullpen. In all, he pitched 74.2 innings (eight starts) and posted a 4.70 ERA, 4.43 FIP and 4.34 xFIP. It was a tremendously disappointing campaign for McHugh, but really it was his first poor season since 2013.

IP GS ERA FIP xFIP WAR
2014 154.2 25 2.73 3.11 3.11 3.0
2015 203.2 32 3.89 3.58 3.91 3.5
2016 184.2 33 4.34 3.95 4.09 2.7
2017 63.1 12 3.55 3.82 4.66 1.1
2018 72.1 0 1.99 2.72 3.26 1.4
2019 74.2 8 4.70 4.43 4.34 0.5

The Astros moved McHugh to the bullpen beginning in 2017 due to a plethora of quality starting pitchers. He just happened to be the odd man out. McHugh proved just as reliable as a reliever as he was as a starter and was one of the best relievers in baseball in 2018. And as noted earlier, McHugh earned a rotation spot for the 2019 season but gave up 29 earned runs in just 41 innings (6.37 ERA) in eight starts. Once he was back in the bullpen, though, he flourished — when he was healthy that is. In 33.2 innings as a reliever, McHugh posted a 2.67 ERA and struck out 40 batters (28.2% K%).

Not only does McHugh have a a strong track record of success in both the bullpen and as a starter, his fastball spin, curveball spin and his ability to limit hard contact are among the elite. Take a look at his 2019 Statcast marks.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now look at 2018.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There has been 63 pitchers who have accumulated 750 or more innings since 2014. McHugh ranks 19th in strikeout rate 23rd in FIP over that time period. I would make the argument that McHugh is close to an elite pitcher who has not received the respect he deserves.

McHugh made $5.8 million during his final arbitration year as an Astro, and FanGraphs’ Crowd Source predicted he’d sign a two-year, $10 million deal this offseason. McHugh is likely asking for a higher AAV — and he deserves it — but pitchers and catchers are about to report for spring training, and he might not have the leverage he once did. He’ll likely sign a one-year, prove it deal, also known as the Milwaukee Brewers special. The Brewers are in love with one-year contracts, which is another reason why McHugh and Milwaukee are a perfect match.

It seems like the Brewers are always in need of pitchers, and 2020 is no different. The Brewers need an arm like McHugh, whether that’s as a reliever, as a starter or as both. General manager David Stearns targets and focuses on versatile players when he makes acquisitions, so McHugh should be on high on his wish list. It’s curious to me why McHugh hasn’t signed with Milwaukee — or any other team for that matter — yet. Maybe his elbow isn’t healthy. Maybe he’s demanding too much. But the fact of the matter remains, McHugh has consistently shown he’s a dominant pitcher and teams should be lining up for his services.

And the Brewers should be first in line.

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Breaking down the offseason acquisitions of the Milwaukee Brewers

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The Milwaukee Brewers have been busy.

The Brewers — in need of a roster rebuild after a plethora of free agents and non-tendered players moved on — have signed six free agents to major-league contracts (three to minor-league deals), made three (two significant) trades and claimed two players off waivers so far this offseason. And there’s still plenty of time for more moves to happen.

However, as per usual, Milwaukee Brewers fans are complaining that general manager David Stearns hasn’t done enough to improve the team. The free agents they’ve signed aren’t the type to make the team a playoff contender, they say.  Fans, by nature, are unhappy and restless and want fast results. But the moves Stearns has made so far are his typical under-the-radar deals that could pay off in a huge way in the end.

The Brewers non-tendered a couple of interesting, bounce-back candidate players (I’ll never get over letting Travis Shaw walk), freeing up a considerable amount of money. As the roster stands now, FanGraphs projects the Brewers to carry a payroll of $107 million. The team’s payroll was around $134 million in 2019, meaning the Brewers have the capacity to spend more and sign/trade players while taking on more money. Whether they do that remains to be seen, but I’ve learned not to doubt Stearns’ operation. You shouldn’t either.

So let’s go in order by time of acquisition and learn about the new players who will soon be donning the new and improved Milwaukee Brewers uniform.

INF Luis Urias

On November 27, the Brewers traded Zach Davies and Trent Grisham to San Diego for Luis Urias and Eric Lauer, the former being the main prize for Milwaukee.

Urias has long been a top prospect in the Padres’ farm system. In 2018, the shortstop slashed .296/.398/.447 in Triple-A and followed that up with a .315/.398/.600 line in 2019 for his Triple-A squad. He has superior bat-to-ball skills, though his short time in the major leagues has been a disappointment. Over 302 plate appearances, the 22 year old owns a 79 wRC+ with a meager .318 on-base percentage. Luckily for the Brewers, those 302 plate appearances qualify as a small-sample size, and that, coupled with his young age, really doesn’t mean much. He’s proven he can hit at a high level in the high minors, and at the very least, he’s an immediate upgrade over Orlando Arcia — who was the worst hitter in baseball last year. Urias will likely spend most of his time at shortstop, though Stearns has said he is more than capable of handling third base, which is still a hole the Brewers should work on filling.

Urias and Keston Hiura have the opportunity to spearhead Milwaukee’s infield for years to come, and if Urias turns out to be the hitter he was in the minors with just a little more power, he could ultimately become a star.

LHP Eric Lauer

By trading away starting pitcher Zach Davies and Chase Anderson — reliable, consistent hurlers if nothing else — Milwaukee’s already thin rotation became even more of a weak point. And that’s why getting Eric Lauer in the Padres deal was significant. Urias was the big get in the in the trade with San Diego, but Lauer should be considered more than just a throw-in, especially considering he’s slotted to be in the starting rotation.

Lauer is just 24 years of age with 261 innings under his belt. The southpaw has a career 4.40 ERA and 4.35 FIP and has made more than 20 starts in each of his two seasons. In his second year, Lauer raised his strikeout rate and lowered his walk rate while forcing more ground balls. Home runs were an issue, however, as he gave up too many, and the move to Miller Park won’t be any more friendly to him. Strikeouts and keeping the ball on the ground will be crucial to his success in 2020.

Lauer and Davies are similar in many ways, so replacing one for the other doesn’t really hurt or help the Brewers rotation in any immediate way. But it could turn out to be a solid, long-term investment; Lauer is under team control until 2024, while Davies will become a free agent after the 2021 season.

C Omar Narvaez

The Brewers needed a catcher and the Mariners were selling one. Acquiring Omar Narvaez for minor-leaguer Adam Hill and a Competitive Balance draft pick was a no-brainer for Milwaukee and a bit of a head-scratcher for Seattle.

Narvaez will be tasked with replacing Yasmani Grandal‘s 2019 production, and while that may seem like a big leap, the two have very similar offensive skill sets. Here is how they’ve fared over the past two seasons:

Narvaez: .346 wOBA, 120 wRC+

Grandal: .356 wOBA, 123 wRC+

Narvaez should be able to replicate Grandal’s production with the bat, but his defensive skills are lacking. He’s been graded as one of the worst pitch framers in the game and struggles throwing out runners, but the Brewers are confident they can turn him into at least an average defensive catcher. But this is why having Manny Pina — who will likely see much more playing time in 2020 — as a backup is important.

The former Mariners catcher is just 27 years old and isn’t eligible for free agency until 2022. He’s displayed high on-base capabilities in each of his four professional seasons, and last year he hit a career-high 22 home runs on his way to a 1.8 WAR season.  For how good of a hitter Narvaez has proven to be, he doesn’t hit the ball all that hard, which questions the sustainability of his above-average bat. His average exit velocity of 85.4 mph in 2019 ranked all the way down in the eighth percentile.

Orlando Arcia somehow hit the ball with more oompf than Narvaez last season. Yet, it’s Narvaez’s launch angle that has helped him find success. His launch angle ranked among the top 60, tying with the likes of Nolan Arenado and Eugenio Suarez, which allowed him to hit for power and find gaps. His lack of exit velocity is something to keep an eye on going forward, however, and it’ll be interesting to see if Narvaez can show the same home-run power in the friendly confines of Miller Park that he displayed in Seattle without hitting the ball with much authority.

RHP Josh Lindblom

Lindblom is an interesting player, and someone who, like Eric Thames, reinvented himself in Korea. Before making his way overseas, Lindblom was a struggling major-league pitcher. In 114 innings that only included six starts, Lindblom left Major League Baseball for Korea with a 4.10 ERA and 4.27 FIP. He was worth 0.4 WAR over that time period.

However, he found almost immediate success in the Korean Baseball Organization — the highest level of baseball in Korea. In 72 innings in 2017 as a starting pitcher, Lindblom posted a 3.79 ERA. The following year he finished with a 2.88 ERA and then a 2.50 ERA in 2019. He comes to America as the reigning MVP of the KBO League and a two-time winner of its Cy Young Award equivalent. In such short time, Lindblom went from an outcast to the most dominant pitcher in Korea, which is why the Brewers quickly pounced when Lindblom expressed interest in returning to the United States. The Brewers gave Lindblom a three-year, $9.125 million deal — that could eventually be worth $18 million with incentives — hoping he’ll be a fixture in their rotation for the next few seasons.

Lindblom doesn’t throw relatively hard — his fastball averages around 91 mph — but his spin rate on his four-seamer and sinker is up there with top major league pitchers, a quality the Brewers were surely aware of and interested in. He’ll likely slot in Milwaukee’s rotation behind Brandon Woodruff and Adrian Houser.

The Brewers found success when Thames returned from Korea, and they’re hoping for similar results with Lindblom, who will be a fascinating case study in 2020.

LHP Brett Anderson

The Brewers signed Anderson to a one-year, $5 million deal to be the team’s fourth or fifth starter. I like to call him the Alex Claudio of starting pitchers.

2019 K% GB% WHIP
Brett Anderson 12.1% 54.5% 1.31
Alex Claudio 16.5% 57.4% 1.31

They both make their living without striking out hitters. In fact, Anderson’s 12.1% strikeout rate was the lowest among qualified starters in 2019, while Claudio was the owner of the seventh-lowest rate among qualified relievers. Though to make up for their lack of punch outs, they force ground balls more often than not, which is undoubtedly why Stearns was drawn to Anderson. Any pitcher who can keep the ball on the ground in Miller Park has a decent shot at success.

Other than his ground-ball rate, though, there’s nothing really exciting about Anderson. He’s thrown over 100 innings just once since 2015, and that was this most recent season. The 31-year-old has dealt with injuries throughout his career and can’t be expected to remain healthy through all of 2020.

The Brewers plan on using him as a starter, but I think he could end up being more useful in the bullpen. Yes, $5 million is a lot to pay for a middling reliever, but he could fill a Chase Anderson-type role and could ultimately be an effective ground-ball pitcher out of the bullpen. With the way the Brewers use their pitchers, don’t be surprised if Anderson is deployed in multiple ways.

OF Avisail Garcia

Maybe the most surprising move by the Brewers this offseason, the team agreed to a two-year, $20 million deal with Avisail Garcia. Critics questioned the move because an outfielder didn’t seem like it should be on top of Milwaukee’s wish list, but Stearns goes after good players, and doesn’t let their position dictate his interest. And Garcia is just that; a good player. He is an outfielder capable of playing all three positions, a hitter with strong Statcast marks and a runner with top-flight speed.

Garcia is coming off a season in which he hit a career-high 20 home runs, and posted a 1.8 WAR and a 112 wRC+ in his first and only year with the Tampa Bay Rays. The 28-year-old is just two years removed from a 4.2 WAR and 138 wRC+ season with the White Sox, during which he slashed .330/.380/.506.

Garcia will see a lot of time in the outfield when Lorenzo Cain and Ryan Braun need days off, or in Braun’s case, when he plays first base. It’s clear that Garcia is an upgrade over Ben Gamel and could even be better than Cain if Cain repeats his abysmal 2019 campaign. Expect Garcia to set a career high in home runs (granted he sees enough at-bats) and be an exciting patroller of the outfield.

INF Ryon Healy

As the roster is currently constructed, Ryon Healy and Eric Sogard will platoon as the team’s third basemen, and before you freak out and jump off a building, it’s reasonable to expect that situation to change before Opening Day on March 26. The Brewers signed Healy to a one-year deal after he was non-tendered by the Athletics. The 27-year-old infielder was limited to 47 games in 2019, as he spent most of the season dealing with a hip injury. He had hip surgery in August but should be ready for Opening Day or shortly thereafter.

Healy is known for his power and not much else. He has 69 career home runs in 401 games and  owns a career 102 wRC+. He doesn’t get on base and his defense is atrocious, and yet, I liked this move by the Brewers. Healy hits home runs and is someone with three minor-league options remaining, which gives the Brewers flexibility with how they use him. This is a no-risk move that could turn out to be great if Healy can be a league-average hitter. And like I said before, it’s likely he won’t be an everyday player, but he’ll have an opportunity to be a very useful bench bat.

INF Eric Sogard

Guess who’s back, back again? Eric Sogard — aka Nerd Power — makes his return to the Brewers after being one of the worst players in Brewers franchise history in 2018. Think I’m over exaggerating? In the team’s history, there have only been four players (minimum 100 plate appearances) who have recorded a worse wRC+ than Sogard’s mark in 2018.

Name Year wRC+
Marty Pattin 1971 -27
John Vukovich 1973 4
Alex Gonzalez 2013 11
Lenn Sakata 1977 13
Eric Sogard 2018 14

Yeah. Sogard was historically bad that year. But he proved enough in 2017 (1.1 WAR, .393 OBP and 109 wRC+) and 2019 (2.6 WAR, .353 OBP and 115 wRC+) to earn a $4.5 million contract from the Brewers. Why they couldn’t afford to pay that to Travis Shaw is beyond me, and I’ll take my hatred of that decision to my grave.

As of now, Sogard will play third base, though his lack of power makes that an odd fit. Usually the hot corner is considered a power-bat position. He is, however, capable of playing multiple positions, and the Brewers crave versatility, so this could end up being a nice signing. Sogard will have to hit like he did last year, though, to justify his $4.5 million contract.

1B Justin Smoak

The Brewers inked 33-year-old Justin Smoak to a one-year, $5 million deal with a 2021 club option to become the team’s primary first baseman. This is my favorite move the Brewers have made this offseason, and it paints a pretty clear picture as to why the Brewers declined Eric Thames’ $7.5 million club option, a move I found puzzling at the time.

Smoak is coming off a down season that was injury-riddled. He posted a 101 wRC+ and hit 22 home runs, both of which were considerably lower than his previous two seasons. He did, onm on the positive side, manage a career-high 15.8% walk rate, which was the seventh-highest mark in baseball. That’s why his .342 on-base percentage was so much more impressive than his .208 batting average. It’s a good thing we don’t care about batting average, right?

Smoak is a switch-hitter with most of his power coming from the left side, making Miller Park the perfect place for him to hit. And I wouldn’t be surprised if he bombed 30+ home runs in 2020. He’ll likely platoon at least a little with Braun, but Smoak should take the majority of reps at first base. He has equal if not more power than Thames and has a much better eye at the plate and fewer holes in his swing, and he comes on the cheap side. Smoak could easily be a 120 wRC+ hitter for the Brewers, making an already potent offense even more explosive.

Here’s a fun fact about Smoak: Since 2010 (Smoak’s first year in the league), he has 35 home runs in the ninth inning. That’s the most in Major League Baseball. Get ready for some walk-off dingers at Miller Park.

*****

The Brewers haven’t nabbed a front-line starter or a top-tier hitter so far this offseason, but they’ve nicely rebuilt a team that saw so many valuable players leave. Replacing Yasmani Grandal, Mike Moustakas and Drew Pomeranz isn’t an easy task, but Stearns has worked his magic and found relatively cheap players who could put up similar production.

The team still has room in its budget to make more improvements. And hey, Josh Donaldson is still out there. Just saying.

Looking at free agency: Which Brewers players will re-sign?

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Some say that baseball free agency is more exciting than the actual season, and while free agency is definitely more thrilling than The Big Bang Theory (honestly, I don’t have the slightest clue why that show is so popular. It’s beyond me), baseball’s regular season still takes the cake. Don’t confuse it with the NBA.

That doesn’t mean I don’t love the winter months of baseball, because I absolutely do. I yearn for even the smallest transaction once players are eligible to sign with other teams. Oh, the Diamondbacks signed a pitcher who played in Korea for the past few seasons? Sign me up! So, yes, I love free agency. And I love it even more when the Milwaukee Brewers are heavily involved, and they’re set to have a couple of key free agents who they’ll have to either replace or re-sign.

The Brewers made the playoffs on the backs of performances of players who could be suited up in new uniforms in 2020. The Brewers currently have seven players who could enter the free agency pool; four who are guaranteed free agents, two who have mutual options (they’ll more than likely decline it and become free agents) and one with a club option that will probably be picked up.

In that vein, let’s take a look at all of Milwaukee’s free agents and figure out if the Brewers should bring them back and how likely it is.

Yasmani Grandal

The MVP of the 2019 Milwaukee Brewers if Christian Yelich didn’t exist is primed to receive a huge payday after putting together a career-high 5.2 WAR season. Grandal reportedly turned down a four-year deal worth $60 million from the Mets this past offseason before joining the Brewers on a one-year, $18.25 million. He bet on himself and he’ll probably be happy he did. Teams should be lining up for his services, especially teams with big check books. And that’s where things get complicated for the Brewers. Milwaukee is aware it can’t compete with the Yankees, Dodgers and Red Sox of the world. That’s why it was so crucial to sign players like Grandal and Mike Moustakas to short-term deals. Those types of signings allows them to maintain flexibility for the future, which means if Grandal demands a four-year or longer contract, the Brewers would be hard-pressed to go there.

General manager David Stearns has said he wants Grandal back in Milwaukee, but wanting and doing are two different things. I could see the Brewers offering a or three-year deal to Grandal, but nothing higher than that. My guess is that Grandal moves on for a bigger paycheck. And who can blame him? He’s earned it.

Chance of re-signing with the Brewers: 25 percent

Mike Moustakas

Without Moustakas the Brewers don’t make it to the National League Championship Series in 2018. Without Moustakas the Brewers don’t make the postseason in 2019. Moustakas was incredibly crucial to Milwaukee’s success this past season, especially with Travis Shaw‘s inability to perform like a major leaguer. Moustakas has been hurt by the new free agency market maybe more than any other player. He has settled for one-year deals in back-to-back seasons, despite putting up 2-win seasons in each of the last three years. Moustakas is, and probably always has been, underrated and unappreciated, and once again he’ll seek a long-term deal and grander paycheck. Whether he gets it is a different question. I’m sure the Brewers would love to have him back on another one-year contract, though I’d be surprised if Moustakas settled again.

The Brewers want to bring back both Moustakas and Grandal, but that would mean a higher payroll, and the team already set a record in 2019 for the highest payroll in franchise history. I prefer Grandal over Moustakas, mainly because finding a superior catcher is no walk in the park. Plus, I still believe in Shaw with everything I have. If Shaw can bounce-back and with Keston Hiura destined to man second base for years to come, Moustakas wouldn’t necessarily be needed. However, the market could beat Moustakas down again, leaving him little choice but to return to the Brewers on another short deal.

Chance of re-signing with the Brewers: 50 percent

Drew Pomeranz

The man who got lit up as a starter and was better than Josh Hader as a reliever is likely due for a pay raise. That is, if he wants to continue being a reliever, which absolutely should be the case. As a member of the Brewers, Pomeranz posted a 2.39 ERA and a 2.68 FIP along with a nasty and unreal 45 percent strikeout. Teams in need of bullpen help should be all over Pomeranz as he enters free agency, and the Brewers should be first in line. The team traded one of its top prospects in Mauricio Dubon to get Pomeranz, so I doubt the Brewers will just let him walk without a fight. No team more than the Brewers know how valuable a deep bullpen is in October. Stearns would be smart to fork over the money that keeps Pomeranz put.

Chance of re-signing with the Brewers: 60 percent

Gio Gonzalez

Similar to Moustakas, Gonzalez found his way back to the Brewers after the cold winds of the free agent market blew past him. Gonzalez is not the ace pitcher he once was, but he’s shown his worth time and time again with the Brewers. He posted a 2.13 ERA in his first stint with the club in 2018, and followed it up with a 3.50 ERA in 87 innings in 2019. He’s been worth more to the Brewers than his cost, which is why the Brewers should be interested in re-signing him.

As everyone knows, the Brewers starting rotation is a weak link. Stearns has repeatedly proved he’s weary of going after top-of-the class pitching on the open market, instead settling for small trades in order to make upgrades. That’s why bringing back Gonzalez is important. He’s reliably good, and he won’t demand a huge contract, whether that’s years or dollars. A two-year deal is likely enough for Gonzalez to re-sign, though Stearns may be more inclined to offer a one-year contract.

Chance of re-signing with the Brewers: 45 percent

Jordan Lyles

Lyles loves pitching for the Brewers. Just look at his numbers compared to his other stops. When the Brewers traded for him for a second time this season, I wrote that the move didn’t do enough to make an impact, that it didn’t help the Brewers goal of making the playoffs. I was wrong. Stearns was right. Stearns is usually always right. Lyles turned out to be Milwaukee’s best pitcher down the stretch, ending the year with seven consecutive outings of allowing two runs or fewer. If there’s no Lyles, there’s no Wild Card berth.

Now, Lyles’ peripherals — mainly his FIP — last season didn’t look great compared to his basic run prevention stats (ERA), and teams may not trust him to repeat his superior performance. And that could open up the door for a Brewers return. Lyles has repeatedly said that he loves pitching to Grandal and credits a lot of his success to different sequencing. Lyles would likely be more interested in returning to Milwaukee if Grandal also came back, but I think there’s a good shot he’s back anyway. He’s a cheap starter you can trust. I’ll be surprised if he’s not a Brewer in 2020.

Chance of re-signing with the Brewers: 70 percent

Matt Albers

The Albers’ signing was a disaster for the Brewers. Milwaukee signed him to a two-year, $5 million contract, and mercifully, it has finally expired. Albers recorded a 6.23 ERA in 94 innings in that two-year span and was left off the postseason roster in every round. This was one of the few Stearns’ signings that failed.

Chance of re-signing with the Brewers: 3 percent

Eric Thames

Thames only becomes a free agent if the Brewers decline his $7.5 million club option. And while I believe that to be unlikely, there is a scenario where it makes sense. If the Brewers re-sign Moustakas to play third, and if they still believe in Shaw and tender him a contract (if they don’t, I’m going to lose my mind), Thames could be out the door. Shaw is capable of playing first base and a whole lot cheaper. MLB Trade Rumors projects Shaw to make $4.7 million in 2020, nearly $3 million less than Thames. It hurts Thames that he’s a very similar player as Shaw. They both hit left-handed and for power and they both get on base at a high clip while not hitting for a high average. The Brewers may choose to go with the cheaper option. Or they may keep both, though that seems like $12 million spent on redundancy.

Most Brewers fans will want Thames back and Shaw gone, because one horrible year of Shaw made everyone forget his 3.6 WAR season of 2018. This situation is one of the more interesting things to watch this offseason. Maybe the Brewers will pick up Thames’ option and trade him. Maybe the Brewers will tender Shaw and trade him. You can never count anything out when it comes to Milwaukee’s front office.

Chance of re-signing with the Brewers: 85 percent

Yovani Gallardo is back and different than ever

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The last time Yovani Gallardo donned a Milwaukee Brewers jersey, he was considered the team’s ace. That’s not the highest of compliments when looking at the stable of pitchers the Brewers employed during his tenure, but nonetheless, Gallardo started 211 games across eight seasons for the Brewers and accumulated 20.8 WAR and an ERA of 3.49. He was more than serviceable during his time there, and should be considered one of the greats in franchise history. Milwaukee has been absent of Gallardo for three years now, until…

On the same day Matt Kemp was reunited via trade with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Gallardo — a free agent — found himself back home as well. Now, while the Dodgers are keen on flipping Kemp, the Brewers hope Gallardo can contribute to the team’s playoff aspirations in 2018. The team has yet to announce the deal, so his role and contract numbers are still unknown, but the deal is likely a one-year contract. Though they have money to spend, the Brewers aren’t going to spend a good chunk of it on a guy who posted a 5.72 ERA last season. A one-year deal laced with incentives is a good bet here.

While most of you may remember Gallardo as a swing-and-miss strikeout pitcher, he actually hasn’t fit that mold for a while now. He started to change who he was when he was still in Milwaukee, but the alterations were truly put on display when he jettisoned to Texas and subsequently Baltimore and Seattle. The former second-round draft pick began to pitch to contact and ultimately forfeited strike outs in the process, as illustrated by the chart and table below.

Since 2012, Gallardo’s strikeout rate has lowered in almost every subsequent year. He saw it rise a bit this past season, but not enough for any significant optimism.

Year SwStr% Contact%
2012 (MIL) 7.9% 79.7%
2013 (MIL) 7.0% 82.9%
2014 (MIL) 7.0% 83.2%
2015 (TEX) 6.5% 84.4%
2016 (BAL) 6.4% 84.3%
2017 (SEA) 8.3% 81.2%

Because Gallardo has lost some velocity over the last few campaigns, he’s been forced to try to get hitters to put the bat on the ball rather than racking up outs via three strikes. The results, however, haven’t been all that kind to the veteran. In his last 51 appearances (45 starts) spanning the past two seasons, Gallardo’s 5.57 ERA is the 11th worst mark among all pitchers with at least 140 innings. His FIP ranks just as poorly, and his 0.6 WAR is bested by 164 of 190 pitchers.

So why on earth would David Stearns and the Brewers waste their time on someone clearly past his peak? Shouldn’t the front office be focused on acquiring bigger fish — like an Alex Cobb — who can actually contribute to the team in 2018? The answer to the latter question is yes. The answer to the first question is a bit more complicated.

Since his arrival, Stearns has set his sights on acquiring low-risk, high-reward talent. Dealing with a mediocre payroll, he doesn’t have the luxury to spend big every offseason as he would if he were the general manager of the New York Yankees. Instead, he has to perform his job with the certain constraints. And so far, he should get all the credit in the world. He found Jonathan Villar, who was an unknown entity before coming to the Brewers. He traded for Travis Shaw and signed Jesus Aguilar, both of whom performed above expectations in 2017. Stearns has been able to find diamonds in the rough on a consistent basis since joining the front office, and while this is the first offseason in which he intends to spend money on free agents, signing a pitcher like Gallardo isn’t the dumbest thing in the world.

By signing Gallardo to an expected short, and small salary deal, he’s taking another low risk approach. Granted, Gallardo’s ceiling is no longer what it was, but the Brewers need someone in a long relief role, and if needed, someone who can fill in as a starter. Jimmy Nelson will miss a considerable amount of time next year, and the team will need multiple arms to fill his void. Gallardo figures to be one of those. If he fails, so what? The consequences will be minimal if any at all. If he succeeds, then Stearns just once again proves he’s a wizard. No risk is the name of the game, and that’s exactly why the Brewers signed their former ace.

Here’s what RW23 projects from him as a reliever in 2018:

IP ERA FIP xFIP K/9 BB/9 K% BB% HR WHIP BABIP
45 4.63 4.75 4.62 6.50 3.56 16.6% 9.1% 6 1.45 .295

The projection doesn’t love him, though compared to Gallardo’s last two seasons, it’s a considerable improvement.

Free agent targets for the Milwaukee Brewers

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The Winter Meetings are set to begin next week, and there should be a flurry of movement almost immediately. Well, that should be the case once Giancarlo Stanton and Shohei Otani figure out where they want to play ball in 2018. Most baseball scribes seem to think once those two sign, the free agent floodgates will open, and for the teams out on the Stanton and Otani sweepstakes, it should be extremely exciting.

The Milwaukee Brewers are one of those teams. Otani has already ruled out Milwaukee as a possible destination, and there’s just no way they can afford to take on Stanton’s salary. But that doesn’t mean that they aren’t ready to spend. They’ve already been linked to Jake Arrieta, who is one of the top free agent hurlers on the market. And while I think signing Arrieta will eventually be a tremendous mistake, there are still many options — both in the hitting and pitching department — that should pique the Brewers’ interest. The Brewers didn’t lose many players to free agency this offseason, though the few players who left will leave big holes on the roster. Neil Walker and Anthony Swarzak both elected free agency, although both have expressed interest on returning, a scenario the Brewers would likely welcome with open arms.

Here are a few free agents that I think the Brewers should target.

SP Alex Cobb

The free agent starting pitching market isn’t all that deep, but there are a few promising names, and Cobb is my favorite option. Cobb is entering his age-30 season and should be right in the middle of his prime years. The right-hander had a bit of a down campaign in 2017, finishing with a respectable 3.66 ERA, but a less impressive 4.16 FIP and 4.24 xFIP. Yet, he’s only two years removed from his second-consecutive season of sub-3.00 ERA. He has the potential to be a true No. 1 ace, and he would immediately fill that void in Milwaukee, especially considering Jimmy Nelson is expected to miss a good chunk of 2018.

In order to revert back to his dominant days, the former Rays’ hurler will need to improve his whiff numbers. His 6.7% swinging strike numbers in 2017 was a career low, and the majority of his other plate discipline numbers suffered from previous years as well. One down year in the peripheral stats department shouldn’t discourage the Brewers from any interest, though. He’s still considered one of the top arms on the market.

MLB Trade Rumors projects Cobb to receive a four-year, $48 million contract, which is something the Brewers should have no problem offering. He does, however, come with some injury risk. He missed the entirety of the 2015 season and made just five starts the following year due to Tommy John surgery. Still, his track record and arm potential is worth the risk.

2B Neil Walker

This is somewhat obvious, as Walker played 38 games with the Brewers in 2017 after being acquired from the Mets. But second base is one of the biggest holes Milwaukee needs to focus on this winter. The team tendered Jonathan Villar and re-signed Eric Sogard, but expecting those two to adequately hold down second base for 162 games is a bit of a stretch. Villar — who broke out in 2016 — was pitiful a year later, and, as much as I love the guy, Sogard is most useful off the bench or in a utility role.

Walker should be Milwaukee’s top target if they want to compete again. And the 32 year old clearly likes hitting in Miller Park. After putting up a 108 wRC+ over 299 plate appearances for New York, Walker blasted his way to a 125 wRC+ in 149 plate appearances. The dimensions of Miller Park agree with him.

MLB Trade Rumors projects just a two-year deal worth $11 million for the veteran, though the Brewers might be wise to overpay for his production. The alternative is just not good enough for a hopeful contender.

SP Chris Tillman

As a cheaper and less-talented option than Cobb, the Brewers should give Chris Tillman a call. Even though it seems like Tillman has been around since the dawn of time, he’s actually only 29 years old, and should still have plenty left in the tank. It’s true that he had the worst season of his career in 2017, and yes, it’s true his 14.2% strikeout rate was his lowest mark since 2010 — his second year in the bigs. Regardless of all that, Tillman represents a terrific bounce-back option. In 2016, he posted a 3.77 ERA and 4.23 FIP, which is eerily similar to Zach Davies‘ most recent stat line.

If the Brewers were to sign the righty, it would most likely be on a short-term deal with a team option. MLB Trade Rumors has him pegged at receiving just a one-year deal worth $11 million. With Nelson out of the starting rotation for the foreseeable future, Tillman would slide in toward the back of the rotation, with his upside being a No. 2 or 3 pitcher.

He’s not the sexiest name on the open market, but he’s a reclamation project that David Stearns loves. He’d be more than useful in Milwaukee’s shallow rotation.

Honorable Mentions

Anthony Swarzak: He resurrected his career and has turned himself into a dominant reliever. He enjoyed his time in Milwaukee, and the Brewers need bullpen help.

Mike Fiers: The Brewers should bring Fiers home, like they did with Jeremy Jeffress. His stats with Houston over the past two years aren’t pretty, but I fully believe he can help Milwaukee in 2018.

Tommy Hunter: Another pitcher on my list, but that’s the main asset the Brewers should covet. Hunter has been a stud reliever since making the switch from the rotation in 2013, and while it could take a decent chunk of change to get Hunter to Milwaukee, he would greatly improve the Brewers’ bullpen.