The 2019 season came to an end for the Milwaukee Brewers after one playoff game. The Brewers choked away a late lead in the National League Wild Card winner-take-all showdown and were sent home packing a year after being one win away from a World Series berth. Overall it was a disappointing campaign for Milwaukee. They had too much talent to just disappear after a single game, though they were lucky to even make the playoffs in the first place.

Because the Brewers season is over, it’s time to look back at the preseason projections and see where the models went wrong and where they went right. So let’s review the season by looking over the pitcher projections from The First Out At Third’s own system (RW23), Steamer, and ZiPS. In 2017 — RW23’s debut season — RW23 was fairly accurate with its hitter projections, while it struggled with pitchers. I only projected hitters in 2018 due to a computer malfunction, and RW23 fell behind Steamer and ZiPS. It’ll be interesting to see how well RW23 holds its own in its third season.

You can find the original 2019 pitcher projections here.

*Note: I originally projected Corey Knebel, Taylor Williams and Alex Wilson, but chose not to include them below due to the limited — or zero — time spent with the Brewers.

RHP Jhoulys Chacin

	IP	ERA	FIP	XFIP	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K%	BB%
RW23	185	3.80	4.38	4.43	1.30	7.33	3.46	1.04	19.1%	9.0%
Steamer	180	4.66	4.61	4.46	1.42	7.60	3.33	1.30	19.2%	8.4%
ZiPS	166	4.33	4.56	—	1.37	7.25	3.63	1.14	—	—
Actual	103	6.01	5.88	5.03	1.56	8.80	2.18	2.18	21.5%	9.8%

Winner: Steamer

Chacin had a miserable season for the Brewers and continued his forgettable performance when he signed with the Red Sox after his release. Steamer was most down on the righty going into the season, and therefore deserves the win.

RHP Freddy Peralta

	IP	ERA	FIP	XFIP	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K%	BB%
RW23	114	4.09	4.50	4.37	1.38	10.65	5.03	1.28	27.3%	12.9%
Steamer	127	4.35	4.36	4.27	1.38	10.49	4.62	1.29	26.7%	11.8%
ZiPS	132	4.01	4.10	—	1.35	12.11	5.10	1.22	—	—
Actual	85	5.29	4.18	4.15	1.46	12.18	3.92	1.59	30.1%	9.7%

Winner: ZiPS

Like Chacin, all three projection systems had a difficult time projecting the flame-throwing Peralta, but in the end, ZiPS was most accurate. Peralta began the year in the rotation (7.07 ERA) before transitioning to the bullpen (4.01 ERA). It’ll be interesting to see how the Brewers use him in 2020.

RHP Brandon Woodruff

	IP	ERA	FIP	XFIP	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K%	BB%
RW23	122	3.73	3.68	3.87	1.32	8.71	3.38	0.83	22.7%	8.8%
Steamer	133	4.39	4.36	4.17	1.37	8.24	3.41	1.22	21.0%	8.7%
ZiPS	117	4.21	4.16	—	1.36	8.57	3.59	1.07	—	—
Actual	121	3.62	3.01	3.36	1.14	10.58	2.22	0.89	29.0%	6.1%

Winner: RW23

As you”ll see, RW23 was higher on Milwaukee’s pitchers — especially the young arms like Woodruff — than Steamer and ZiPS were. And in this case, RW23 was correct about Woodruff. He broke out in a big way in 2019 and is set to headline the team’s rotation next season and in years to come.

RHP Corbin Burnes

	IP	ERA	FIP	XFIP	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K%	BB%
RW23	124	3.64	3.74	3.84	1.29	8.87	3.26	0.85	23.1%	8.5%
Steamer	134	4.48	4.44	4.24	1.39	8.23	3.54	1.24	20.9%	9.0%
ZiPS	135	3.92	4.12	—	1.3	8.71	3.26	1.13	—	—
Actual	49	8.82	6.09	3.37	1.84	12.86	3.67	3.12	29.8%	8.5%

Winner: N/A

After a dominant performance out of the bullpen in 2018, Burnes was a disaster this season, giving up home run after home run. RW23 was incredibly high on Burnes coming into the year, and personally, I still like him, but he’ll need to fix his fastball location issues. No projection system gets the win here.

RHP Zach Davies

	IP	ERA	FIP	XFIP	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K%	BB%
RW23	150	4.09	4.23	4.12	1.36	7.02	3.02	1.01	18.1%	7.8%
Steamer	119	4.62	4.48	4.28	1.41	7.06	2.72	1.29	17.7%	6.8%
ZiPS	145	4.26	4.34	—	1.35	6.73	2.78	1.11	—	—
Actual	159	3.55	4.56	5.20	1.29	5.75	2.87	1.13	15.2%	7.6%

Winner: RW23

For the fourth time in his five big-league seasons, Davies posted a sub-4.00 ERA despite nasty peripherals. RW23 takes home the win because it took into account that while Davies doesn’t strikeout many hitters, he has a knack for limiting hard contact, which allows him to beat his peripherals.

RHP Jimmy Nelson

	IP	ERA	FIP	XFIP	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K%	BB%
RW23	119	3.67	3.60	3.45	1.27	9.40	2.86	0.93	24.6%	7.5%
Steamer	75	4.14	3.98	3.85	1.30	8.73	2.97	1.11	22.7%	7.7%
ZiPS	121	4.30	4.47	—	1.38	7.94	3.41	1.19	—	—
Actual	22	6.95	5.80	5.34	1.91	10.64	6.95	1.64	24.8%	16.2%

Winner: N/A

Nelson was nearly impossible to project heading into the season. We didn’t know his health situation and what is role would be if he returned. He made three starts and made seven relief appearances, all the while struggling with control. He definitely didn’t look like the Nelson of old. Hopefully, he has a completely healthy offseason and we’ll be able to project him more accurately in 2020.

RHP Chase Anderson

	IP	ERA	FIP	XFIP	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K%	BB%
RW23	83	4.27	4.83	4.52	1.30	7.91	3.28	1.53	20.7%	8.6%
Steamer	116	4.63	4.58	4.40	1.32	8.36	2.72	1.55	21.4%	7.0%
ZiPS	141	4.47	5.13	—	1.35	7.28	3.19	1.66	—	—
Actual	139	4.21	4.83	5.26	1.27	8.03	3.24	1.49	21.0%	8.5%

Winner: RW23

RW23 hit Anderson’s projection right on the nose with it’s most accurate projection yet, giving it the easy win. Anderson was who he’s mainly always been; a reliable and innings-eating pitcher. The Brewers just recently traded him to the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for Chad Spanberger.

LHP Josh Hader

	IP	ERA	FIP	XFIP	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K%	BB%
RW23	74	2.37	2.87	2.63	0.91	13.91	3.46	1.06	40.2%	10.0%
Steamer	65	2.92	2.94	2.97	1.10	13.65	3.84	0.99	36.9%	10.4%
ZiPS	73	2.95	3.08	—	1.10	15.34	4.30	1.23	—	—
Actual	75	2.62	3.10	2.36	0.81	16.41	2.38	1.78	47.8%	6.9%

Winner: ZiPS

Hader continued to strike every one out, but he also started giving up home runs at a high rate, which is why he set career highs in ERA and FIP. ZiPS deserves the win for accurately projecting Hader’s batted ball issues.

RHP Jeremy Jeffress

	IP	ERA	FIP	XFIP	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K%	BB%
RW23	59	3.39	3.50	3.27	1.26	9.73	3.62	0.83	25.8%	9.6%
Steamer	40	3.38	3.40	3.34	1.28	9.59	3.35	0.78	25.2%	8.8%
ZiPS	66	3.12	3.36	—	1.25	9.23	3.53	0.68	—	—
Actual	52	5.02	3.96	4.40	1.37	7.96	2.94	0.87	20.4%	7.6%

Winner: N/A

No winners here once again. This is getting annoying. But how can I declare a winner when nobody projected Jeffress would implode? Jeffress dealt with injuries in spring training and throughout the year, and that contributed to a decrease in fastball velocity and fewer strikeouts. The Brewers released him in September.

LHP Alex Claudio

	IP	ERA	FIP	XFIP	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K%	BB%
RW23	71	3.06	2.97	2.98	1.15	6.43	1.21	0.51	17.5%	3.3%
Steamer	60	3.57	3.59	3.53	1.31	6.80	2.24	0.75	17.7%	5.8%
ZiPS	75	3.33	3.44	—	1.2	5.83	1.78	0.59	—	—
Actual	62	4.06	4.92	4.59	1.31	6.39	3.48	1.16	16.5%	9.0%

Winner: Steamer

Claudio led all relievers in appearances with 83, but he failed to be the pitcher the Brewers hoped he would be. RW23 was hoping Claudio would recapture his magic from 2017, but instead he pitched similar to 2018. Steamer adds another to the win column.

RHP Matt Albers

	IP	ERA	FIP	XFIP	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K%	BB%
RW23	53	4.26	4.22	3.98	1.36	8.40	3.07	1.19	21.6%	7.9%
Steamer	65	4.18	4.11	3.96	1.33	8.35	2.93	1.17	21.4%	7.5%
ZiPS	41	4.35	4.49	—	1.28	8.49	2.61	1.52	—	—
Actual	59	5.13	4.66	4.55	1.37	8.60	4.37	1.21	22.1%	11.2%

Winner: ZiPS

Albers’ terrible tenure as a Milwaukee Brewer is finally over, as the two-year deal he signed turned out to be one of the worst moves by general manager David Stearns. Albers is a free agent and will likely sign a prove-it deal with a rebuilding team. ZiPS was closest on Albers’ poor production.

RHP Jacob Barnes

	IP	ERA	FIP	XFIP	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K%	BB%
RW23	55	3.50	3.61	3.82	1.33	8.61	3.98	0.68	22.5%	10.4%
Steamer	35	4.04	4.04	3.97	1.38	8.97	3.84	1.03	22.9%	9.8%
ZiPS	61	3.65	3.74	—	1.38	8.90	4.23	0.73	—	—
Actual	32	7.44	6.06	5.22	1.78	8.82	6.06	1.93	20.0%	13.8%

Winner: N/A

Another pitcher who imploded for the Brewers and another contest that has no winner. The Brewers designated Barnes for assignment in August and the Royals just released him. He has talent, but his command is limiting his success.

RHP Junior Guerra

	IP	ERA	FIP	XFIP	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K%	BB%
RW23	41	4.03	4.28	4.00	1.28	8.72	3.07	1.34	23.0%	8.1%
Steamer	60	3.86	3.84	3.81	1.25	9.71	3.03	1.19	25.4%	7.9%
ZiPS	119	4.46	4.72	—	1.39	8.09	3.86	1.36	—	—
Actual	83	3.55	4.52	4.83	1.12	8.28	3.87	1.18	22.4%	10.5%

Winner: RW23

This was close between RW23 and Steamer, but RW23 was just a little more accurate in more categories. Guerra produced a nice season and eventually became one of Craig Counsell‘s most trusted bullpen arms. He seems to have found his spot as a reliever.

FINAL RESULTS:

RW23: 4 wins

ZiPS: 3 wins

Steamer: 2 wins