The 2019 season came to an end for the Milwaukee Brewers after one playoff game. The Brewers choked away a late lead in the National League Wild Card winner-take-all showdown and were sent home packing a year after being one win away from a World Series berth. Overall it was a disappointing campaign for Milwaukee. They had too much talent to just disappear after a single game, though they were lucky to even make the playoffs in the first place.

Because the Brewers season is over, it’s time to look back at the preseason projections and see where the models went wrong and where they went right. So let’s review the season by looking over the pitcher projections from The First Out At Third’s own system (RW23), Steamer, and ZiPS. In 2017 — RW23’s debut season — RW23 was fairly accurate with its hitter projections, while it struggled with pitchers. I only projected hitters in 2018 due to a computer malfunction, and RW23 fell behind Steamer and ZiPS. It’ll be interesting to see how well RW23 holds its own in its third season.

You can find the original 2019 pitcher projections here.

*Note: I originally projected Corey Knebel, Taylor Williams and Alex Wilson, but chose not to include them below due to the limited — or zero — time spent with the Brewers.

RHP Jhoulys Chacin

	IP	ERA	FIP	XFIP	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K%	BB%
RW23	185	3.80	4.38	4.43	1.30	7.33	3.46	1.04	19.1%	9.0%
Steamer	180	4.66	4.61	4.46	1.42	7.60	3.33	1.30	19.2%	8.4%
ZiPS	166	4.33	4.56	—	1.37	7.25	3.63	1.14	—	—
Actual	103	6.01	5.88	5.03	1.56	8.80	2.18	2.18	21.5%	9.8%

Winner: Steamer

Chacin had a miserable season for the Brewers and continued his forgettable performance when he signed with the Red Sox after his release. Steamer was most down on the righty going into the season, and therefore deserves the win.

RHP Freddy Peralta

	IP	ERA	FIP	XFIP	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K%	BB%
RW23	114	4.09	4.50	4.37	1.38	10.65	5.03	1.28	27.3%	12.9%
Steamer	127	4.35	4.36	4.27	1.38	10.49	4.62	1.29	26.7%	11.8%
ZiPS	132	4.01	4.10	—	1.35	12.11	5.10	1.22	—	—
Actual	85	5.29	4.18	4.15	1.46	12.18	3.92	1.59	30.1%	9.7%

Winner: ZiPS

Like Chacin, all three projection systems had a difficult time projecting the flame-throwing Peralta, but in the end, ZiPS was most accurate. Peralta began the year in the rotation (7.07 ERA) before transitioning to the bullpen (4.01 ERA). It’ll be interesting to see how the Brewers use him in 2020.

RHP Brandon Woodruff

	IP	ERA	FIP	XFIP	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K%	BB%
RW23	122	3.73	3.68	3.87	1.32	8.71	3.38	0.83	22.7%	8.8%
Steamer	133	4.39	4.36	4.17	1.37	8.24	3.41	1.22	21.0%	8.7%
ZiPS	117	4.21	4.16	—	1.36	8.57	3.59	1.07	—	—
Actual	121	3.62	3.01	3.36	1.14	10.58	2.22	0.89	29.0%	6.1%

Winner: RW23

As you”ll see, RW23 was higher on Milwaukee’s pitchers — especially the young arms like Woodruff — than Steamer and ZiPS were. And in this case, RW23 was correct about Woodruff. He broke out in a big way in 2019 and is set to headline the team’s rotation next season and in years to come.

RHP Corbin Burnes

	IP	ERA	FIP	XFIP	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K%	BB%
RW23	124	3.64	3.74	3.84	1.29	8.87	3.26	0.85	23.1%	8.5%
Steamer	134	4.48	4.44	4.24	1.39	8.23	3.54	1.24	20.9%	9.0%
ZiPS	135	3.92	4.12	—	1.3	8.71	3.26	1.13	—	—
Actual	49	8.82	6.09	3.37	1.84	12.86	3.67	3.12	29.8%	8.5%

Winner: N/A

After a dominant performance out of the bullpen in 2018, Burnes was a disaster this season, giving up home run after home run. RW23 was incredibly high on Burnes coming into the year, and personally, I still like him, but he’ll need to fix his fastball location issues. No projection system gets the win here.

RHP Zach Davies

	IP	ERA	FIP	XFIP	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K%	BB%
RW23	150	4.09	4.23	4.12	1.36	7.02	3.02	1.01	18.1%	7.8%
Steamer	119	4.62	4.48	4.28	1.41	7.06	2.72	1.29	17.7%	6.8%
ZiPS	145	4.26	4.34	—	1.35	6.73	2.78	1.11	—	—
Actual	159	3.55	4.56	5.20	1.29	5.75	2.87	1.13	15.2%	7.6%

Winner: RW23

For the fourth time in his five big-league seasons, Davies posted a sub-4.00 ERA despite nasty peripherals. RW23 takes home the win because it took into account that while Davies doesn’t strikeout many hitters, he has a knack for limiting hard contact, which allows him to beat his peripherals.

RHP Jimmy Nelson

	IP	ERA	FIP	XFIP	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K%	BB%
RW23	119	3.67	3.60	3.45	1.27	9.40	2.86	0.93	24.6%	7.5%
Steamer	75	4.14	3.98	3.85	1.30	8.73	2.97	1.11	22.7%	7.7%
ZiPS	121	4.30	4.47	—	1.38	7.94	3.41	1.19	—	—
Actual	22	6.95	5.80	5.34	1.91	10.64	6.95	1.64	24.8%	16.2%

Winner: N/A

Nelson was nearly impossible to project heading into the season. We didn’t know his health situation and what is role would be if he returned. He made three starts and made seven relief appearances, all the while struggling with control. He definitely didn’t look like the Nelson of old. Hopefully, he has a completely healthy offseason and we’ll be able to project him more accurately in 2020.

RHP Chase Anderson

	IP	ERA	FIP	XFIP	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K%	BB%
RW23	83	4.27	4.83	4.52	1.30	7.91	3.28	1.53	20.7%	8.6%
Steamer	116	4.63	4.58	4.40	1.32	8.36	2.72	1.55	21.4%	7.0%
ZiPS	141	4.47	5.13	—	1.35	7.28	3.19	1.66	—	—
Actual	139	4.21	4.83	5.26	1.27	8.03	3.24	1.49	21.0%	8.5%

Winner: RW23

RW23 hit Anderson’s projection right on the nose with it’s most accurate projection yet, giving it the easy win. Anderson was who he’s mainly always been; a reliable and innings-eating pitcher. The Brewers just recently traded him to the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for Chad Spanberger.

LHP Josh Hader

	IP	ERA	FIP	XFIP	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K%	BB%
RW23	74	2.37	2.87	2.63	0.91	13.91	3.46	1.06	40.2%	10.0%
Steamer	65	2.92	2.94	2.97	1.10	13.65	3.84	0.99	36.9%	10.4%
ZiPS	73	2.95	3.08	—	1.10	15.34	4.30	1.23	—	—
Actual	75	2.62	3.10	2.36	0.81	16.41	2.38	1.78	47.8%	6.9%

Winner: ZiPS

Hader continued to strike every one out, but he also started giving up home runs at a high rate, which is why he set career highs in ERA and FIP. ZiPS deserves the win for accurately projecting Hader’s batted ball issues.

RHP Jeremy Jeffress

	IP	ERA	FIP	XFIP	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K%	BB%
RW23	59	3.39	3.50	3.27	1.26	9.73	3.62	0.83	25.8%	9.6%
Steamer	40	3.38	3.40	3.34	1.28	9.59	3.35	0.78	25.2%	8.8%
ZiPS	66	3.12	3.36	—	1.25	9.23	3.53	0.68	—	—
Actual	52	5.02	3.96	4.40	1.37	7.96	2.94	0.87	20.4%	7.6%

Winner: N/A

No winners here once again. This is getting annoying. But how can I declare a winner when nobody projected Jeffress would implode? Jeffress dealt with injuries in spring training and throughout the year, and that contributed to a decrease in fastball velocity and fewer strikeouts. The Brewers released him in September.

LHP Alex Claudio

	IP	ERA	FIP	XFIP	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K%	BB%
RW23	71	3.06	2.97	2.98	1.15	6.43	1.21	0.51	17.5%	3.3%
Steamer	60	3.57	3.59	3.53	1.31	6.80	2.24	0.75	17.7%	5.8%
ZiPS	75	3.33	3.44	—	1.2	5.83	1.78	0.59	—	—
Actual	62	4.06	4.92	4.59	1.31	6.39	3.48	1.16	16.5%	9.0%

Winner: Steamer

Claudio led all relievers in appearances with 83, but he failed to be the pitcher the Brewers hoped he would be. RW23 was hoping Claudio would recapture his magic from 2017, but instead he pitched similar to 2018. Steamer adds another to the win column.

RHP Matt Albers

	IP	ERA	FIP	XFIP	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K%	BB%
RW23	53	4.26	4.22	3.98	1.36	8.40	3.07	1.19	21.6%	7.9%
Steamer	65	4.18	4.11	3.96	1.33	8.35	2.93	1.17	21.4%	7.5%
ZiPS	41	4.35	4.49	—	1.28	8.49	2.61	1.52	—	—
Actual	59	5.13	4.66	4.55	1.37	8.60	4.37	1.21	22.1%	11.2%

Winner: ZiPS

Albers’ terrible tenure as a Milwaukee Brewer is finally over, as the two-year deal he signed turned out to be one of the worst moves by general manager David Stearns. Albers is a free agent and will likely sign a prove-it deal with a rebuilding team. ZiPS was closest on Albers’ poor production.

RHP Jacob Barnes

	IP	ERA	FIP	XFIP	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K%	BB%
RW23	55	3.50	3.61	3.82	1.33	8.61	3.98	0.68	22.5%	10.4%
Steamer	35	4.04	4.04	3.97	1.38	8.97	3.84	1.03	22.9%	9.8%
ZiPS	61	3.65	3.74	—	1.38	8.90	4.23	0.73	—	—
Actual	32	7.44	6.06	5.22	1.78	8.82	6.06	1.93	20.0%	13.8%

Winner: N/A

Another pitcher who imploded for the Brewers and another contest that has no winner. The Brewers designated Barnes for assignment in August and the Royals just released him. He has talent, but his command is limiting his success.

RHP Junior Guerra

	IP	ERA	FIP	XFIP	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K%	BB%
RW23	41	4.03	4.28	4.00	1.28	8.72	3.07	1.34	23.0%	8.1%
Steamer	60	3.86	3.84	3.81	1.25	9.71	3.03	1.19	25.4%	7.9%
ZiPS	119	4.46	4.72	—	1.39	8.09	3.86	1.36	—	—
Actual	83	3.55	4.52	4.83	1.12	8.28	3.87	1.18	22.4%	10.5%

Winner: RW23

This was close between RW23 and Steamer, but RW23 was just a little more accurate in more categories. Guerra produced a nice season and eventually became one of Craig Counsell‘s most trusted bullpen arms. He seems to have found his spot as a reliever.

FINAL RESULTS:

RW23: 4 wins

ZiPS: 3 wins

Steamer: 2 wins

The 2019 season came to an end for the Milwaukee Brewers after one playoff game. The Brewers choked away a late lead in the National League Wild Card winner-take-all showdown and were sent home packing a year after being one win away from a World Series berth. Overall it was a disappointing campaign for Milwaukee. They had too much talent to just disappear after a single game, though they were lucky to even make the playoffs in the first place.

Because the Brewers season is over, it’s time to look back at the preseason projections and see where the models went wrong and where they went right. So let’s review the season by looking over the projections from The First Out At Third’s own system (RW23), Steamer, and ZiPS. In 2017 — RW23’s debut season — RW23 was fairly accurate with its hitter projections, while it struggled with pitchers. I only projected hitters in 2018 due to a computer malfunction, and RW23 fell behind Steamer and ZiPS. It’ll be interesting to see how well RW23 holds its own in its third season.

You can find the original 2019 hitter projections here.

C Yasmani Grandal

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	wOBA	HR	K%	BB%	BABIP
RW23	532	.247	.355	.487	.842	.240	.361	28	24.0%	14.1%	.280
Steamer	496	.237	.344	.453	.797	.216	.345	23	25.0%	13.5%	.277
ZiPS	475	.238	.349	.462	.811	.223	.351	23	25.7%	14.3%	.281
Actual	632	.246	.380	.468	.848	.222	.361	28	22.0%	17.2%	.279

Winner: RW23

RW23 accurately projected Grandal’s weighted on-base average and number of home runs, while nailing his batting average and OPS. RW23 is the clear winner here, as is Grandal after a fantastic season.

1B Jesus Aguilar

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	WOBA	HR	K%	BB%	BABIP
RW23	595	.258	.329	.480	.810	.223	.346	30	27.2%	8.8%	.309
Steamer	578	.242	.317	.454	.771	.212	.330	28	26.4%	9.1%	.286
ZiPS	526	.258	.333	.492	.825	.234	.350	28	25.3%	9.5%	.297
Actual	369	.236	.325	.389	.714	.153	.307	12	22.0%	11.7%	.272

Winner: N/A

The three projection systems all failed to predict Aguilar’s offensive fall. The Brewers ultimately traded him to the Tampa Bay Rays, and while he hit better, his power from 2018 remained gone. No winners here.

2B/3B Mike Moustakas

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	WOBA	HR	K%	BB%	BABIP
RW23	603	.269	.330	.508	.838	.239	.356	34	16.6%	8.1%	.270
Steamer	575	.261	.321	.489	.809	.228	.342	30	16.5%	7.5%	.264
ZiPS	580	.267	.324	.506	.818	.239	.350	32	16.2%	7.1%	.268
Actual	584	.254	.329	.516	.845	.262	.348	35	16.8%	9.1%	.250

Winner: RW23

It was a tight race, but RW23 comes away with a narrow victory, due to it more accurately projecting Moustakas’ power numbers. Playing a full year at Miller Park sure helped his power, as Moustakas’ 35 home runs were the second most of his career.

3B Travis Shaw

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	WOBA	HR	K%	BB%	BABIP
RW23	595	.282	.376	.534	.910	.252	.386	34	19.0%	12.9%	.298
Steamer	598	.249	.334	.457	.791	.209	.338	27	21.3%	10.8%	.276
ZiPS	560	.261	.340	.472	.812	.219	.346	26	21.4%	11.1%	.282
Actual	270	.157	.281	.270	.551	.113	.248	7	33.0%	13.3%	.216

Winner: N/A

Let’s forget I predicted Shaw would make the All-Star roster this year. Let’s just wipe that from our memories because this was a lost season for Shaw. He spent a lot of time in the minors and looked completely lost when he was with the Brewers. No one foresaw this kind of downfall. Nobody’s a winner.

SS Orlando Arcia

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	WOBA	HR	K%	BB%	BABIP
RW23	552	.245	.293	.357	.650	.112	.286	11	22.9%	6.2%	.303
Steamer	507	.253	.302	.377	.679	.123	.293	10	19.4%	6.2%	.299
ZiPS	553	.247	.294	.360	.654	.113	.283	10	21.3%	6.0%	.302
Actual	546	.223	.283	.350	.633	.128	.269	15	20.0%	7.9%	.253

Winner: RW23

Arcia was the worst hitter in baseball in 2019, and it may be time to question if his bat will ever play at a league-average level. RW23 takes home another win, though it was extremely close to being a three-way tie.

OF Ryan Braun

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	WOBA	HR	K%	BB%	BABIP
RW23	460	.270	.331	.493	.824	.222	.351	20	19.8%	8.0%	.300
Steamer	507	.265	.330	.476	.807	.212	.342	23	19.6%	8.4%	.290
ZiPS	440	.269	.332	.470	.802	.201	.340	18	19.5%	8.2%	.300
Actual	508	.285	.343	.505	.849	.220	.354	22	20.7%	6.7%	.325

Winner: RW23

Another win for RW23, as Braun enjoyed a offensive resurgence. Steamer and ZiPS underestimated his power numbers, giving RW23 the clear and decisive victory.

OF Lorenzo Cain

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	wOBA	HR	K%	BB%	BABIP
RW23	600	.296	.372	.424	.796	.128	.349	12	15.8%	10.3%	.339
Steamer	620	.284	.356	.422	.778	.138	.339	14	16.9%	9.2%	.327
ZiPS	568	.287	.359	.409	.768	.123	.336	11	16.2%	9.3%	.330
Actual	623	.260	.325	.372	.697	.112	.302	11	17.0%	8.0%	.301

Winner: ZiPS

This contest was close between ZiPS and Steamer, though neither projection system saw Cain’s offense falling as much as it did. Cain dealt with injuries throughout the season and was nowhere near the hitter he was for the Brewers in 2018. The Brewers will need him to bounce back in a big way.

OF Christian Yelich

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	WOBA	HR	K%	BB%	BABIP
RW23	662	.310	.390	.544	.934	.234	.397	29	20.5%	11.0%	.360
Steamer	637	.297	.381	.515	.896	.218	.382	26	20.5%	11.2%	.344
ZiPS	673	.298	.379	.522	.901	.224	.384	28	21.1%	10.8%	.349
Actual	580	.329	.429	.671	1.100	.342	.442	44	20.3%	13.8%	.355

Winner: RW23

All three projection systems thought Yelich would regress in 2019, a word Yelich grew to hate. And Yelich proved everyone wrong, as he set career marks in almost every offensive category. RW23 picks up another victory here, due to its more bullish projection.

1B Eric Thames

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	WOBA	HR	K%	BB%	BABIP
RW23	340	.232	.316	.478	.794	.246	.342	19	32.3%	10.0%	.295
Steamer	258	.235	.329	.459	.788	.224	.336	12	30.3%	11.2%	.299
ZiPS	427	.229	.333	.478	.818	.256	.346	23	32.3%	12.2%	.293
Actual	459	.247	.346	.505	.851	.258	.354	25	30.5%	11.1%	.313

Winner: ZiPS

Because Aguilar forgot how to hit, Thames saw more playing time and eventually took over the starting job completely when Aguilar was traded. As a result, put together a very solid season. His wRC+ of 116 was well above league average and his on-base skills returned after dipping a bit in 2018. However, he’s now on the free agent market after the Brewers declined his $7.5 million option. ZiPS takes home the win here, as it believed in Thames’ 2017 performance more than his 2018 performance.

OF Ben Gamel

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	WOBA	HR	K%	BB%	BABIP
RW23	322	.272	.346	.416	.762	.144	.332	6	19.7%	9.5%	.330
Steamer	110	.267	.333	.393	.725	.126	.316	2	20.9%	8.5%	.330
ZiPS	530	.267	.331	.413	.744	.146	.322	9	20.4%	8.3%	.326
Actual	356	.248	.337	.373	.710	.125	.308	7	29.2%	11.2%	.347

Winner: Steamer

Steamer is finally on the board! Gamel turned out to be a nice bench piece for the Brewers, but he showed little extra-base power and his strikeouts skyrocketed. He should likely resume is bench role next season.

INF Hernan Perez

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	WOBA	HR	K%	BB%	BABIP
RW23	295	.254	.288	.398	.686	.143	.297	9	21.6%	4.6%	.301
Steamer	216	.253	.290	.394	.685	.141	.295	5	20.0%	4.9%	.294
ZiPS	415	.255	.286	.401	.687	.145	.294	11	20.5%	4.3%	.298
Actual	246	.228	.262	.379	.642	.151	.271	8	26.8%	4.5%	.283

Winner: Three-way tie

The projections were so similar to each other that it’s basically impossible to pick a sole winner, so I’ve giving the victory to all three projection systems. Perez isn’t fun to project and he’s not fun to watch, so it makes sense.

INF Cory Spangenberg

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	WOBA	HR	K%	BB%	BABIP
RW23	252	.264	.328	.426	.753	.162	.328	8	27.1%	8.0%	.339
Steamer	75	.245	.306	.383	.688	.138	.300	2	28.4%	7.4%	.328
ZiPS	461	.246	.306	.406	.712	.160	.308	13	30.4%	7.2%	.337
Actual	102	.232	.277	.358	.635	.126	.267	2	35.3%	5.9%	.351

Winner: Steamer

Steamer takes home an easy victory here by correctly predicting Spangenberg’s role and low power numbers. Spangenberg is a free agent and will likely move on from Milwaukee.

C Manny Pina

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	WOBA	HR	K%	BB%	BABIP
RW23	261	.239	.303	.365	.668	.126	.293	6	19.0%	6.7%	.281
Steamer	96	.250	.306	.388	.694	.138	.301	2	20.4%	6.6%	.296
ZiPS	334	.247	.303	.385	.688	.138	.297	8	19.2%	6.3%	.285
Actual	179	.228	.313	.411	.724	.184	.308	7	27.9%	8.9%	.284

Winner: Steamer

Steamer’s projected plate appearances for Pina were far too low, but everything else was relatively on point, earning it a victory. Pina will return to the Brewers in 2020, though his role — with Grandal’s likely departure — is yet to be determined.

FINAL RESULTS:

RW23: 6 wins

Steamer: 4 wins

ZiPS: 3 wins