Let’s talk about the Milwaukee Brewers trade deadline

In July 2018 the Milwaukee Brewers made waves before the MLB trade deadline hit. The Brewers — who were sitting a few percentage points behind the Chicago Cubs with a 63-47 record — added Mike Moustakas, Joakim Soria and Jonathan Schoop in three separate trades. Moustakas and Soria were significant contributors to Milwaukee’s NLCS run, while Schoop (-0.3 in 46 games) failed to make a positive impact. July 2018 was an important month for the Brewers, and it allowed fans to wonder and salivate over what moves were in store for the team this year.

Once again, the Brewers made three trades (Jordan Lyles was acquired from the Pirates on July 29) before the 3:00 p.m. CT deadline arrived, but unlike a year ago, the players acquired were far less remarkable. Here’s what the Brewers cooked up on trade deadline day:

When Robert Murray of The Athletic tweeted the Brewers were sending Dubon to the Giants in a “significant” trade, my heart stopped. For a brief second I thought that both Madison Bumgarner and Will Smith were headed to Milwaukee, until I realized that Murray’s definition of “significant” was drastically different than mine, and well, the rest of the world’s. The only thing significant about Milwaukee’s deadline is that they traded a 2018 All-Star and a fan and clubhouse favorite in Aguilar. The three players the Brewers got back? Not so noteworthy. But let’s talk about them anyway.

Jake Faria

Faria burst onto the scene in 2017 when he finished with a 3.43 ERA, 4.12 FIP and 1.3 WAR in 16 games (14 starts) as a rookie. He looked like a legitimate young rotation pitcher. But then 2018 rolled around and he looked lost, evidenced by his 5.40 ERA and 5.08 FIP. Here’s a quick look at the difference:

Faria’s never been known for his velocity or spin, but he was above average in strikeout rate and did a good job of limiting opponent’s power, although he did give up a fair amount of hard contact. Fast forward to 2018 and he plummeted in all categories. He wasn’t just bad, he was bottom-of-the-barrel terrible. This year’s been better, at least in terms of ERA, and while he’s been able to strikeout over 23 percent of batters, his walk rate is through the roof. And that’s been a constant in Faria’s young career, and something that will limit his success if he can’t fix his control.

Faria recently turned 26, so he’s still young enough to figure things out. And, might I add, he has years of team control left. He’s not eligible for free agency until 2024, which was very appealing to the Brewers. However, he won’t do much to help the Brewers this season and is a wild card for the future, which is why this trade didn’t do much for me. Plus, I think they gave up on Aguilar too quickly.

Drew Pomeranz

In December 2018 I tweeted that Pomeranz was a clear buy-low candidate for the Brewers. It only took them seven months and their fourth-best prospect before they listened. It wasn’t exactly a buy-low, but there’s stuff to like about the lefty.

Let’s first forget about his current ERA of 5.68. Pomeranz will be used as a reliever — not as a starter like he was deployed San Francisco — and so far the results out of the bullpen have been magnificent. His velocity is up a few ticks since the switch and of the 10 batters he’s faced, he’s struck out half of them. It’s a small sample, definitely, but encouraging nonetheless.

Pomeranz is also a lefty, and the Brewers have need a lefty reliever who’s not named Josh Hader and who’s more consistent and strike hitters out more often than Alex Claudio. Pomeranz will definitely help the bullpen, but is he worth Dubon? I’m not so sure. I’m not the biggest Dubon believer in the world, but I believe he could’ve been packaged with other prospects to secure a more dominant and helpful player. It hurts even more knowing that Pomeranz will likely walk in free agency after the season.

Ray Black

Black throws heat. He throws hard and and he throws fast. His fastball — which is capable of reaching over 100 mph — is in the 99th percentile in terms of velocity. Black also uses his velocity to his advantage. In 25.1 major league innings, Black has a strikeout rate of 35.9 percent. If we set the inning parameters to a minimum of 20 innings, Black has the 10th-highest strikeout rate in MLB history. Obviously that doesn’t mean all that much, other than the fact that Black is capable of being filthy.

On the flip side, he walks everyone, even more than Faria. And in those 25.1 aforementioned innings, he owns a 6.04 ERA, albeit a much more friendly 4.15 FIP, thanks to his strikeout ability. His limited control will keep him in the minors — where the Brewers sent him — and keep his potential hidden. But Black has the most upside of all three players, and it’s really not hard to see why.

***

The Brewers didn’t have a significant deadline because the moves they made won’t help the 2019 team enough in its playoff push. They also may not help in the future, though that remains to be seen. And that’s the biggest problem I had with Milwaukee’s deadline. It left me wondering, what was the point?

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