Pitcher projections for the 2019 Milwaukee Brewers

Welcome to the 2019 edition of the RW23 hitter projections for the Milwaukee Brewers. RW23 — creatively named after Rickie Weeks — was created in 2017 with the help of Mike Podhorzer and his book, “Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance.”

Below you’ll find the RW23 pitcher projections for the 2019 Milwaukee Brewers, along with the Steamer and ZiPS projection systems for comparison. Remember projections are just projections, and RW23 is significantly more bullish on Milwaukee’s starting pitching staff than Steamer and ZiPS. Don’t take any of these projection systems as fact. But feel free to bash them in the comments section.

You can find my previously published hitter projections here.

RHP Jhoulys Chacin

IP ERA FIP xFIP WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K% BB%
RW23 185.0 3.80 4.38 4.43 1.30 7.33 3.46 1.04 19.1% 9.0%
Steamer 180.0 4.66 4.61 4.46 1.42 7.60 3.33 1.30 19.2% 8.4%
ZiPS 166.0 4.33 4.56 1.37 7.25 3.63 1.14

RHP Freddy Peralta

IP ERA FIP xFIP WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K% BB%
RW23 114.0 4.09 4.50 4.37 1.38 10.65 5.03 1.28 27.3% 12.9%
Steamer 127.0 4.35 4.36 4.27 1.38 10.49 4.62 1.29 26.7% 11.8%
ZiPS 132.0 4.01 4.10 1.35 12.11 5.10 1.22

RHP Brandon Woodruff

IP ERA FIP xFIP WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K% BB%
RW23 122.0 3.73 3.68 3.87 1.32 8.71 3.38 0.83 22.7% 8.8%
Steamer 133.0 4.39 4.36 4.17 1.37 8.24 3.41 1.22 21.0% 8.7%
ZiPS 117.0 4.21 4.16 1.36 8.57 3.59 1.07

RHP Corbin Burnes

IP ERA FIP xFIP WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K% BB%
RW23 124.0 3.64 3.74 3.84 1.29 8.87 3.26 0.85 23.1% 8.5%
Steamer 134.0 4.48 4.44 4.24 1.39 8.23 3.54 1.24 20.9% 9.0%
ZiPS 135.0 3.92 4.12 1.30 8.71 3.26 1.13

RHP Zach Davies

IP ERA FIP xFIP WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K% BB%
RW23 150.0 4.09 4.23 4.12 1.36 7.02 3.02 1.01 18.1% 7.8%
Steamer 119.0 4.62 4.48 4.28 1.41 7.06 2.72 1.29 17.7% 6.8%
ZiPS 145.0 4.26 4.34 1.35 6.73 2.78 1.11

RHP Jimmy Nelson

IP ERA FIP xFIP WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K% BB%
RW23 119.0 3.67 3.60 3.45 1.27 9.40 2.86 0.93 24.6% 7.5%
Steamer 75.0 4.14 3.98 3.85 1.30 8.73 2.97 1.11 22.7% 7.7%
ZiPS 121.0 4.30 4.47 1.38 7.94 3.41 1.19

RHP Chase Anderson

IP ERA FIP xFIP WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K% BB%
RW23 83.0 4.27 4.83 4.52 1.30 7.91 3.28 1.53 20.7% 8.6%
Steamer 116.0 4.63 4.58 4.40 1.32 8.36 2.72 1.55 21.4% 7.0%
ZiPS 141.0 4.47 5.13 1.35 7.28 3.19 1.66

LHP Josh Hader

IP ERA FIP xFIP WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K% BB%
RW23 74.0 2.37 2.87 2.63 0.91 13.91 3.46 1.06 40.2% 10.0%
Steamer 65.0 2.92 2.94 2.97 1.10 13.65 3.84 0.99 36.9% 10.4%
ZiPS 73.0 2.95 3.08 1.10 15.34 4.30 1.23

RHP Jeremy Jeffress

IP ERA FIP xFIP WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K% BB%
RW23 59.0 3.39 3.50 3.27 1.26 9.73 3.62 0.83 25.8% 9.6%
Steamer 40.0 3.38 3.40 3.34 1.28 9.59 3.35 0.78 25.2% 8.8%
ZiPS 66.0 3.12 3.36 1.25 9.23 3.53 0.68

LHP Alex Claudio

IP ERA FIP xFIP WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K% BB%
RW23 71.0 3.06 2.97 2.98 1.15 6.43 1.21 0.51 17.5% 3.3%
Steamer 60.0 3.57 3.59 3.53 1.31 6.80 2.24 0.75 17.7% 5.8%
ZiPS 75.0 3.33 3.44 1.20 5.83 1.78 0.59

RHP Matt Albers

IP ERA FIP xFIP WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K% BB%
RW23 53.0 4.26 4.22 3.98 1.36 8.40 3.07 1.19 21.6% 7.9%
Steamer 65.0 4.18 4.11 3.96 1.33 8.35 2.93 1.17 21.4% 7.5%
ZiPS 41.0 4.35 4.49 1.28 8.49 2.61 1.52

RHP Corey Knebel

IP ERA FIP xFIP WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K% BB%
RW23 39.0 2.98 2.89 2.95 1.16 12.61 3.76 0.81 34.2% 10.2%
Steamer 20.0 3.03 2.95 2.97 1.15 12.85 3.73 0.88 34.4% 10.0%
ZiPS 62.0 2.90 3.06 1.16 13.79 4.06 1.02

RHP Taylor Williams

IP ERA FIP xFIP WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K% BB%
RW23 49.0 3.98 3.85 3.85 1.36 9.76 8.76 1.03 25.3% 10.0%
Steamer 40.0 4.07 4.06 4.01 1.34 9.74 3.79 1.17 25.0% 9.7%
ZiPS 56.0 4.34 4.21 1.48 9.32 4.34 1.13

RHP Jacob Barnes

IP ERA FIP xFIP WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K% BB%
RW23 55.0 3.50 3.61 3.82 1.33 8.61 3.98 0.68 22.5% 10.4%
Steamer 35.0 4.04 4.04 3.97 1.38 8.97 3.84 1.03 22.9% 9.8%
ZiPS 61.0 3.65 3.74 1.38 8.90 4.23 0.73

RHP Junior Guerra

IP ERA FIP xFIP WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K% BB%
RW23 41.0 4.03 4.28 4.00 1.28 8.72 3.07 1.34 23.0% 8.1%
Steamer 60.0 3.86 3.84 3.81 1.25 9.71 3.03 1.19 25.4% 7.9%
ZiPS 119.0 4.46 4.72 1.39 8.09 3.86 1.36

RHP Alex Wilson

IP ERA FIP xFIP WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 K% BB%
RW23 52.0 3.99 3.96 4.31 1.35 6.97 2.81 0.92 18.1% 7.3%
Steamer 20.0 4.18 4.12 4.07 1.32 7.66 2.53 1.18 19.7% 6.5%
ZiPS 58.0 3.88 3.95 1.24 6.21 2.17 0.93

 

Advertisements

2 thoughts on “Pitcher projections for the 2019 Milwaukee Brewers

  1. TY Christopher Will

    It seems as though all of the Brewers strikeout pitchers are giving up an absurd number of gopher balls, even Hader, whereas the soft tossers like Davies are not. Is there an explanation? Are the hard throwers pitching too high in the zone?

    Like

    Reply
    1. Justin Schultz Post author

      A lot of it is fastball location. The Brewers have given up the most home runs via the fastball in MLB. Davies has always had pinpoint command because he needs to. But Burnes and Peralta — even Hader — have all been hurt by where they’re locating fastballs.

      Like

      Reply

Leave a Reply to Justin Schultz Cancel reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s