Welcome to the 2019 edition of the RW23 hitter projections for the Milwaukee Brewers. RW23 — creatively named after Rickie Weeks — was created in 2017 with the help of Mike Podhorzer and his book, “Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance.”
Below you’ll find the RW23 pitcher projections for the 2019 Milwaukee Brewers, along with the Steamer and ZiPS projection systems for comparison. Remember projections are just projections, and RW23 is significantly more bullish on Milwaukee’s starting pitching staff than Steamer and ZiPS. Don’t take any of these projection systems as fact. But feel free to bash them in the comments section.
You can find my previously published hitter projections here.
RHP Jhoulys Chacin
| IP | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | K% | BB% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RW23 | 185.0 | 3.80 | 4.38 | 4.43 | 1.30 | 7.33 | 3.46 | 1.04 | 19.1% | 9.0% |
| Steamer | 180.0 | 4.66 | 4.61 | 4.46 | 1.42 | 7.60 | 3.33 | 1.30 | 19.2% | 8.4% |
| ZiPS | 166.0 | 4.33 | 4.56 | — | 1.37 | 7.25 | 3.63 | 1.14 | — | — |
RHP Freddy Peralta
| IP | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | K% | BB% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RW23 | 114.0 | 4.09 | 4.50 | 4.37 | 1.38 | 10.65 | 5.03 | 1.28 | 27.3% | 12.9% |
| Steamer | 127.0 | 4.35 | 4.36 | 4.27 | 1.38 | 10.49 | 4.62 | 1.29 | 26.7% | 11.8% |
| ZiPS | 132.0 | 4.01 | 4.10 | — | 1.35 | 12.11 | 5.10 | 1.22 | — | — |
RHP Brandon Woodruff
| IP | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | K% | BB% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RW23 | 122.0 | 3.73 | 3.68 | 3.87 | 1.32 | 8.71 | 3.38 | 0.83 | 22.7% | 8.8% |
| Steamer | 133.0 | 4.39 | 4.36 | 4.17 | 1.37 | 8.24 | 3.41 | 1.22 | 21.0% | 8.7% |
| ZiPS | 117.0 | 4.21 | 4.16 | — | 1.36 | 8.57 | 3.59 | 1.07 | — | — |
RHP Corbin Burnes
| IP | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | K% | BB% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RW23 | 124.0 | 3.64 | 3.74 | 3.84 | 1.29 | 8.87 | 3.26 | 0.85 | 23.1% | 8.5% |
| Steamer | 134.0 | 4.48 | 4.44 | 4.24 | 1.39 | 8.23 | 3.54 | 1.24 | 20.9% | 9.0% |
| ZiPS | 135.0 | 3.92 | 4.12 | — | 1.30 | 8.71 | 3.26 | 1.13 | — | — |
RHP Zach Davies
| IP | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | K% | BB% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RW23 | 150.0 | 4.09 | 4.23 | 4.12 | 1.36 | 7.02 | 3.02 | 1.01 | 18.1% | 7.8% |
| Steamer | 119.0 | 4.62 | 4.48 | 4.28 | 1.41 | 7.06 | 2.72 | 1.29 | 17.7% | 6.8% |
| ZiPS | 145.0 | 4.26 | 4.34 | — | 1.35 | 6.73 | 2.78 | 1.11 | — | — |
RHP Jimmy Nelson
| IP | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | K% | BB% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RW23 | 119.0 | 3.67 | 3.60 | 3.45 | 1.27 | 9.40 | 2.86 | 0.93 | 24.6% | 7.5% |
| Steamer | 75.0 | 4.14 | 3.98 | 3.85 | 1.30 | 8.73 | 2.97 | 1.11 | 22.7% | 7.7% |
| ZiPS | 121.0 | 4.30 | 4.47 | — | 1.38 | 7.94 | 3.41 | 1.19 | — | — |
RHP Chase Anderson
| IP | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | K% | BB% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RW23 | 83.0 | 4.27 | 4.83 | 4.52 | 1.30 | 7.91 | 3.28 | 1.53 | 20.7% | 8.6% |
| Steamer | 116.0 | 4.63 | 4.58 | 4.40 | 1.32 | 8.36 | 2.72 | 1.55 | 21.4% | 7.0% |
| ZiPS | 141.0 | 4.47 | 5.13 | — | 1.35 | 7.28 | 3.19 | 1.66 | — | — |
LHP Josh Hader
| IP | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | K% | BB% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RW23 | 74.0 | 2.37 | 2.87 | 2.63 | 0.91 | 13.91 | 3.46 | 1.06 | 40.2% | 10.0% |
| Steamer | 65.0 | 2.92 | 2.94 | 2.97 | 1.10 | 13.65 | 3.84 | 0.99 | 36.9% | 10.4% |
| ZiPS | 73.0 | 2.95 | 3.08 | — | 1.10 | 15.34 | 4.30 | 1.23 | — | — |
RHP Jeremy Jeffress
| IP | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | K% | BB% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RW23 | 59.0 | 3.39 | 3.50 | 3.27 | 1.26 | 9.73 | 3.62 | 0.83 | 25.8% | 9.6% |
| Steamer | 40.0 | 3.38 | 3.40 | 3.34 | 1.28 | 9.59 | 3.35 | 0.78 | 25.2% | 8.8% |
| ZiPS | 66.0 | 3.12 | 3.36 | — | 1.25 | 9.23 | 3.53 | 0.68 | — | — |
LHP Alex Claudio
| IP | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | K% | BB% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RW23 | 71.0 | 3.06 | 2.97 | 2.98 | 1.15 | 6.43 | 1.21 | 0.51 | 17.5% | 3.3% |
| Steamer | 60.0 | 3.57 | 3.59 | 3.53 | 1.31 | 6.80 | 2.24 | 0.75 | 17.7% | 5.8% |
| ZiPS | 75.0 | 3.33 | 3.44 | — | 1.20 | 5.83 | 1.78 | 0.59 | — | — |
RHP Matt Albers
| IP | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | K% | BB% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RW23 | 53.0 | 4.26 | 4.22 | 3.98 | 1.36 | 8.40 | 3.07 | 1.19 | 21.6% | 7.9% |
| Steamer | 65.0 | 4.18 | 4.11 | 3.96 | 1.33 | 8.35 | 2.93 | 1.17 | 21.4% | 7.5% |
| ZiPS | 41.0 | 4.35 | 4.49 | — | 1.28 | 8.49 | 2.61 | 1.52 | — | — |
RHP Corey Knebel
| IP | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | K% | BB% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RW23 | 39.0 | 2.98 | 2.89 | 2.95 | 1.16 | 12.61 | 3.76 | 0.81 | 34.2% | 10.2% |
| Steamer | 20.0 | 3.03 | 2.95 | 2.97 | 1.15 | 12.85 | 3.73 | 0.88 | 34.4% | 10.0% |
| ZiPS | 62.0 | 2.90 | 3.06 | — | 1.16 | 13.79 | 4.06 | 1.02 | — | — |
RHP Taylor Williams
| IP | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | K% | BB% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RW23 | 49.0 | 3.98 | 3.85 | 3.85 | 1.36 | 9.76 | 8.76 | 1.03 | 25.3% | 10.0% |
| Steamer | 40.0 | 4.07 | 4.06 | 4.01 | 1.34 | 9.74 | 3.79 | 1.17 | 25.0% | 9.7% |
| ZiPS | 56.0 | 4.34 | 4.21 | — | 1.48 | 9.32 | 4.34 | 1.13 | — | — |
RHP Jacob Barnes
| IP | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | K% | BB% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RW23 | 55.0 | 3.50 | 3.61 | 3.82 | 1.33 | 8.61 | 3.98 | 0.68 | 22.5% | 10.4% |
| Steamer | 35.0 | 4.04 | 4.04 | 3.97 | 1.38 | 8.97 | 3.84 | 1.03 | 22.9% | 9.8% |
| ZiPS | 61.0 | 3.65 | 3.74 | — | 1.38 | 8.90 | 4.23 | 0.73 | — | — |
RHP Junior Guerra
| IP | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | K% | BB% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RW23 | 41.0 | 4.03 | 4.28 | 4.00 | 1.28 | 8.72 | 3.07 | 1.34 | 23.0% | 8.1% |
| Steamer | 60.0 | 3.86 | 3.84 | 3.81 | 1.25 | 9.71 | 3.03 | 1.19 | 25.4% | 7.9% |
| ZiPS | 119.0 | 4.46 | 4.72 | — | 1.39 | 8.09 | 3.86 | 1.36 | — | — |
RHP Alex Wilson
| IP | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | K% | BB% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RW23 | 52.0 | 3.99 | 3.96 | 4.31 | 1.35 | 6.97 | 2.81 | 0.92 | 18.1% | 7.3% |
| Steamer | 20.0 | 4.18 | 4.12 | 4.07 | 1.32 | 7.66 | 2.53 | 1.18 | 19.7% | 6.5% |
| ZiPS | 58.0 | 3.88 | 3.95 | — | 1.24 | 6.21 | 2.17 | 0.93 | — | — |
The First Out At Third 
It seems as though all of the Brewers strikeout pitchers are giving up an absurd number of gopher balls, even Hader, whereas the soft tossers like Davies are not. Is there an explanation? Are the hard throwers pitching too high in the zone?
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A lot of it is fastball location. The Brewers have given up the most home runs via the fastball in MLB. Davies has always had pinpoint command because he needs to. But Burnes and Peralta — even Hader — have all been hurt by where they’re locating fastballs.
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