Phew.

What a season. What an incredible, outta-this-world fun and heart-wrenching season the 2018 campaign turned out to be. When Mike Moustakas swung and missed on a pitch in the dirt from Clayton Kershaw to end the Milwaukee Brewers’ Cinderella story, I was broken, and yet, so thrilled and happy I was able to witness playoff baseball in Miller Park once again.

With that being said, I needed time away from the Brewers and from baseball, which is why this site has been silent for awhile. I needed to process what happened and I needed to decompress. That’s over with now. I’m ready to start thinking and writing about the Milwaukee Brewers again.

So let’s review the season by looking over the preseason projections from The First Out At Third’s own system (RW23), Steamer and ZiPS. In 2017, RW23 was fairly accurate with its hitter projections, while it struggled with pitchers. My computer took a dive just before the season started, so I was unable to project hurlers this year, though I did manage to get my hitter projections out to the world. Let’s see how they stacked up against the powerhouses of Steamer and ZiPs.

***Note: My preseason projections included Jonathan Villar, Eric Sogard, Domingo Santana, Jett Bandy and Stephen Vogt, but because Villar was traded, Sogard, Santana and Bandy barely spent any time with the team and Vogt missed the entire season, I decided not to include them below. If you have issues with this decision, take it up with the league office.

C Manny Pina

	PA	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	WOBA	K%	BB%	BABIP	SB	HR
RW23	333	304	.245	.301	.370	.671	.125	.295	23.1%	6.4%	.299	1	8
Steamer	231	210	.251	.306	.388	.694	.137	.300	20.5%	6.5%	.297	1	5
ZiPS	339	311	.248	.299	.386	.685	.138	.295	19.5%	5.9%	.288	2	8
Actual	337	306	.252	.307	.395	.702	.144	.301	18.4%	6.2%	.285	2	9

Winner: Steamer

All three projection systems foresaw Pina’s fall back to earth after a career year in 2017. Steamer just happened to be a bit more spot on than RW23 and ZiPS. It remains to be seen if Pina will be Milwaukee’s starting backstop in 2018, though one should expect him to be on the 25-man roster.

1B Eric Thames

	PA	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	WOBA	K%	BB%	BABIP	SB	HR
RW23	489	419	.243	.348	.499	.846	.256	.363	30.2%	12.8%	.306	4	26
Steamer	508	437	.251	.346	.488	.834	.236	.352	27.2%	11.5%	.309	6	26
ZiPS	516	441	.240	.345	.510	.855	.270	.358	30.6%	12.6%	.300	7	29
Actual	278	247	.219	.306	.478	.783	.259	.330	34.9%	10.4%	.284	7	16

Winner: N/A

Thames lost playing time to Jesus Aguilar soon after the season started, and he proved he wasn’t a reliable option off the bench, highlighted by the fact the Brewers refused to put him on their postseason roster. Thames looked lost at the plate all year, and none of the projection systems saw it coming. There’s no winners here.

3B/2B Travis Shaw

	PA	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	WOBA	K%	BB%	BABIP	SB	HR
RW23	595	527	.277	.353	.535	.888	.258	.376	23.2%	10.1%	.315	9	33
Steamer	580	516	.249	.323	.454	.777	.205	.328	23.4%	9.3%	.286	5	26
ZiPS	573	515	.256	.323	.472	.795	.216	.335	23.2%	8.6%	.294	7	26
Actual	587	498	.241	.345	.480	.825	.239	.351	18.4%	13.3%	.242	5	32

Winner: ZiPS

Though RW23 was correct in projecting that Shaw was capable of putting up similar — if not better — power numbers to 2017, it was a little too bullish on the Brewers infielder, giving ZiPS its first win. Shaw was the victim of some BABIP bad luck, and I expect his average and OBP to rise in 2019.

SS Orlando Arcia

	PA	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	WOBA	K%	BB%	BABIP	SB	HR
RW23	592	544	.278	.331	.431	.762	.152	.326	16.9%	7.0%	.312	15	17
Steamer	551	503	.262	.313	.405	.717	.143	.305	17.5%	6.7%	.296	14	14
ZiPS	599	554	.256	.305	.401	.706	.144	.299	18.2%	6.3%	.292	16	16
Actual	366	348	.236	.268	.307	.576	.072	.253	23.8%	4.1%	.305	7	3

Winner: ZiPS

We can just copy what I wrote about Thames and paste it here, because, boy, Arcia was just a bag of off-balanced swings during the regular season. He turned it on in October, but that doesn’t erase his miserable six months prior to that. Once again, RW23 hyped up Arcia, and while Steamer and ZiPS didn’t think he’d be this dreadful, the win goes to the latter.

OF Ryan Braun

	PA	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	WOBA	K%	BB%	BABIP	SB	HR
RW23	475	428	.280	.345	.490	.835	.210	.356	18.3%	8.6%	.308	7	20
Steamer	475	426	.277	.344	.496	.840	.219	.353	19.3%	8.8%	.304	10	22
ZiPS	472	426	.284	.347	.495	.843	.211	.354	18.9%	8.3%	.316	12	20
Actual	447	405	.254	.313	.469	.782	.215	.330	19.0%	7.6%	.274	11	20

Winner: ZiPS

A .313 on-base percentage for Braun is shocking, though his career-low .274 BABIP explains it a little. I didn’t want to give ZiPS the win here, as all three projection systems missed the mark again, but I guess ZiPS was the closest. I honestly have no idea.

OF Lorenzo Cain

	PA	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	WOBA	K%	BB%	BABIP	SB	HR
RW23	610	553	.292	.350	.417	.767	.125	.334	17.6%	7.7%	.338	23	14
Steamer	593	533	.283	.344	.437	.781	.154	.335	17.7%	7.6%	.324	16	16
ZiPS	579	530	.283	.339	.426	.765	.143	.328	16.6%	7.1%	.322	22	14
Actual	620	539	.308	.395	.417	.813	.109	.359	15.2%	11.5%	.357	30	10

Winner: RW23

RW23 thought that Cain would be a force at the top of Milwaukee’s batting order, but Cain exceeded expectations in nearly every category, and earned himself a handful of MVP votes. Meanwhile, RW23 finally finds the win column.

OF Christian Yelich

	PA	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	WOBA	K%	BB%	BABIP	SB	HR
RW23	672	580	.300	.386	.502	.889	.203	.382	20.2%	11.8%	.349	15	26
Steamer	647	560	.296	.381	.491	.871	.195	.371	20.2%	11.4%	.348	12	23
ZiPS	682	598	.289	.371	.472	.843	.182	.360	20.8%	11.1%	.346	16	21
Actual	651	574	.326	.402	.598	1.000	.272	.422	20.7%	10.4%	.373	22	36

Winner: RW23

The first convincing win for RW23, as it projected Yelich’s career year. The Brewers outfielder brought home the National League MVP and displayed a power force he never showed during his time in Miami. It seems rather unlikely Yelich can hit 36 home runs again in 2019, but is it really sane to put expectations on him anymore?

UTIL Hernan Perez

	PA	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	WOBA	K%	BB%	BABIP	SB	HR
RW23	355	333	.273	.309	.430	.739	.157	.319	17.0%	5.1%	.300	8	12
Steamer	183	172	.258	.293	.398	.691	.141	.295	19.2%	4.5%	.298	6	5
ZiPS	474	446	.269	.299	.426	.725	.157	.307	18.1%	4.2%	.305	15	13
Actual	334	316	.253	.290	.386	.676	.133	.292	21.3%	5.1%	.300	11	9

Winner: Steamer

Perez had a typical Hernan Perez season. No walks and no on-base skills. There’s not much else to say about his season. I gave Steamer the win, despite being off on his playing time numbers.

1B Jesus Aguilar

	PA	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	WOBA	K%	BB%	BABIP	SB	HR
RW23	82	74	.249	.314	.450	.764	.201	.330	28.8%	7.7%	.311	0	4
Steamer	20	18	.236	.302	.426	.728	.190	.310	26.5%	7.9%	.284	0	1
ZiPS	473	428	.243	.307	.428	.734	.185	.312	26.0%	7.8%	.293	0	19
Actual	566	492	.274	.352	.539	.890	.264	.374	25.3%	10.2%	.309	0	35

Winner: N/A

RW23 and Steamer didn’t think Aguilar would stick on the roster very long, and while ZiPS pegged him for a starting job, it vastly underestimated him as a hitter. Aguilar surprised everyone in baseball with his crushing of pitchers, and though he fell off in the second half, his season of 3.1 WAR was a tremendous success.

Final Results:

ZiPS: 3 wins

Steamer: 2 wins

RW23: 2 wins