The Milwaukee Brewers sit at 55-43. And while no other team in the National League has more wins (the Chicago Cubs also have 55), they still find themselves 2.5 games behind those Cubs in the NL Central. The Brewers have lost six games in a row and eight of their last 10 games. They couldn’t have finished the first half in a worse fashion, causing Brewers fans across the great state of Wisconsin to collectively lose their freakin’ minds.
It’s true that the Brewers just finished an excruciatingly grueling part of the schedule — 22 games in 21 days — so the offensive struggles are understandable. However, it’s also true that the Brewers need help. The team that has exceeded expectations desperately needs a few more pieces if they want to continue exceeding those expectations, and not only get into the playoffs, but make a deep run.
When the Brewers organization believes it has a chance for October baseball, they don’t hesitate to make bold moves via the trade market. They acquired CC Sabathia just before the All-Star break in 2008, and they sent the farm to acquire Zack Greinke before the 2011 campaign. In both seasons, the Brewers made the playoffs. Both trades paid off. Both trades were worth it. Anyone who says differently can argue with me on Twitter. I won’t respond because you’re ridiculous, but you can argue all the same.
The Brewers believe they can make a run in October, and why shouldn’t they? They signed Lorenzo Cain (3.6 WAR) to a massive deal this winter and simultaneously traded for Christian Yelich (2.4 WAR), two players who have been instantly valuable in Milwaukee’s success. The Brewers have been leading the Cubs for almost the entire year, and despite the recent underwhelming play, the Brewers look like a team that is destined to play fall baseball for the first time since 2011. General manager David Stearns will not hesitate to make that a reality. He’s going to make moves, and they’re going to be significant ones.
Here are the players he should be targeting:
This is the obvious one. Machado and the Brewers have been linked for months, and there’s a real possibility that the two sides will work out a deal. The Brewers are in desperate need of middle infield help, as they currently rank 29th in shortstop WAR (-0.7) and 26th in second base WAR (-0.2).
The Orioles are reportedly asking for Milwaukee’s No. 2 prospect Corbin Burnes — who has been lights-out impressive since joining the big-league squad — and while the Brewers are reluctant to part with him, I doubt Stearns would balk at the chance to bring in one of the game’s best bats. Machado has a 156 wRC+ with 24 home runs and 3.8 Wins Above Replacement, and he would join a lineup that already includes Cain (125 wRC+), Yelich (121), Jesus Aguilar (159), Travis Shaw (115) and Eric Thames (135). Machado would instantly make the Brewers one of the better offensive teams in baseball.
The problem with trading for Machado is that he’ll only be around for a couple of months. Like Sabathia in ’08, he’s a rental, and the Brewers will have to decide if the opportunity cost is worth a few months of a phenomenal player.
Chance of acquiring Machado: High
SP J.A. Happ
Looking at Happ’s statistics, you might question why Happ is on this list. The 35-year-old starter has an ERA and FIP over four and lasted just 3.2 and 2.2 innings in his last two starts, respectively. Yet the Brewers should be all over the southpaw.
Happ will be a free agent after this season, and due to his current stats, won’t cost much to acquire. The Blue Jays aren’t in the running for a playoff spot, so they should have no hesitation in trading a mid-30s pitcher who has a 4.29 ERA. But if we look past his ERA — like the Brewers should — we see that his strikeout rate of 26.5 percent is the highest of his career. He’s also walking fewer than three batters per nine innings. On the negative side, he’s already allowed 17 home runs after allowing a total of 18 last season, and admittedly, that might be a problem in Miller Park.
Happ is by no means an ace, but adding him to Milwaukee’s rotation will give it a much-needed boost. He’s averaging 5.7 innings per start, and while that might not seem like a lot, take into account that Milwaukee’s starters have averaged just 5.3 innings per start. They’re right in the middle of the pack in that category.
Jhoulys Chacin is due for some regression, Junior Guerra just landed on the disabled list, Chase Anderson doesn’t look like his 2017 self and Brent Suter and Wade Miley are, well, Brent Suter and Wade Miley…uninspiring. The Brewers need rotation help, and Happ would be a cheap piece that could help propel the team to the playoffs.
Chance of acquiring Happ: Moderate to high
SP Chris Archer
The Brewers have long been rumored to have interest in the Tampa Bay Rays ace, but there’s been nothing in the rumor mill as of late. In fact, I’m not even aware anything has even been whispered about Archer in recent weeks. Maybe this guy has heard something.
Unlike Happ, Archer would be the immediate No. 1 pitcher for the Brewers. Though his strikeouts are considerably down from the past few seasons, Archer can dominate games and carry a team on his back if need be. That’s the type of hurler the Brewers covet. They need someone who can pick up the slack if the offense has a quiet night — which has happened all too often in 2018. Archer has posted an ERA over four each of the last three seasons, but he’s always been a guy whose FIP outperforms his ERA (3.68 career ERA, 3.49 career FIP. The same is true again this season. I truly believe that Archer is in need of a change of scenery, and he could once again be a shutdown ace if in the right situation.
Of everyone that is seemingly available on the trade market, Archer will cost the most. He’s just 29 years old and doesn’t become a free agent until after the 2021 season. And did I mention that he’s currently locked into an unbelievably team-friendly contract? Archer is due just $16.5 million over the next two years, which is why the Rays will be asking for the farm in any trade talks. The odds the Brewers acquire him are low, as it would, in all likelihood, force them to give up both Keston Hiura and Corbin Burnes. Nonetheless, not only would Archer almost guarantee the Brewers a playoff spot, he’d stick around for at least another two years, and Stearns loves cheap players who have multiple years of team control. It’s possible Stearns and the Rays pull the trigger on a deal involving Archer, but not likely.
Chance of acquiring Archer: Low
Before 2018 began, I was against the Brewers acquiring Merrifield from the Kansas City Royals. I thought his 2017 season was a flash in the pan. Even though he broke out, his wRC+ was barely over 100 and his OBP was below .330. I thought Jonathan Villar could put up similar numbers while costing the Brewers next to nothing.
Well, Merrifield has taken his break out to another level. The 29 year old has already been worth 2.8 WAR, and he’s raised his OBP by 54 points and his walk rate by 4.6 percent. He’s hitting for considerably less power, but the Brewers — who are among the top 10 in home runs in MLB — don’t really need another power hitter. They need someone who can get on base at a high clip, and someone who is a force on the base paths. Merrifield does both of those extremely well.
However, like Archer, Merrifield will cost an arm and a leg to acquire, considering he’s not even arbitration-eligible until 2020. Still, I think Stearns could pull the trigger on him in order to upgrade the team’s middle infield.
Chance of acquiring Merrifield: Moderate
2B Brian Dozier
Don’t look at Dozier’s batting average. Don’t look at his on-base percentage. Heck, don’t even look at his wRC+. They’re all bad. But I don’t care. Dozier needs to be a Brewer. For the past few seasons, Dozier has gotten off to rotten starts at the plate, but then goes absolutely nuts in the second half.
|2016 First Half||.246||.335||14||.338||109|
|2016 Second Half||.291||.344||28||.405||155|
|2017 First Half||.242||.328||13||.319||95|
|2017 Second Half||.302||.394||21||.410||158|
Why can’t he do it again, except this time in a Brewers uniform? The two have already been linked together.
Dozier is set to be a free agent this winter, and since the Twins’ season has been a bitter disappointment, they have no reason to keep an aging second baseman on the roster any longer. He’s not in the organization’s long-term plans, so it would make sense if they ship him off for a prospect. Dozier would add massive power to the Brewers’ lineup, and he could even be more dangerous in a stadium like Miller Park. If Stearns doesn’t want to pay up for Merrifield, getting Dozier to Milwaukee is a no brainer.
Chance of acquiring Dozier: Moderate to high
The non-waiver trade deadline is quickly approaching. In just two weeks, numerous players will be changing cities and switching teams, and if the Brewers expect to still be playing in October, they’ll soon be welcoming new players to their city. Do they go all-in and acquire someone like Machado? Or do they make small improvements like adding Happ? Only time will tell.