The World Series is over (congratulations to World Series champion Mike Fiers) but for fans of the Milwaukee Brewers, the offseason began long ago. The Brewers missed the playoffs by an inch, and although playing in October would’ve been incredible, the season as a whole was a great success. I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again; the future is bright in Milwaukee. I fully believe this team is just a year or two away from being a perennial playoff team, something the Brewers have never really been.

But now that the season has ended, it’s time to revisit the projections by comparing my own system (RW23) that was created with the help of Mike Podhorzer and his book Projecting X 2.0, with popular projection systems Steamer and ZiPS. This was the first year I had ever created projections, and I’m curious to see how they held up.

Below you’ll find every Brewers pitcher I projected just before the season tipped off, along with Steamer and ZiPS projections, compared to said player’s actual 2017 statistical line. If you missed my hitter projection review, you can find it here.

***Note: My preseason projections included Tommy Milone, Jhan Marinez, Neftali Feliz and Taylor Jungmann, but because they were on the major league roster for such a short time, I chose not to include them below.

Junior Guerra

	IP	HR	WHIP	BABIP	K/9	BB/9	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	XFIP
RW23	162	17	1.27	.281	7.48	3.25	19.8%	8.6%	3.61	3.99	4.35
Steamer	192	25	1.39	.303	8.24	3.47	21.0%	8.9%	4.43	4.29	4.25
ZiPS	123	18	1.35	.294	8.20	3.66	20.9%	9.3%	4.24	4.54	N/A
Actual	70.1	18	1.48	.236	8.57	5.50	21.3%	13.7%	5.12	6.58	5.43

Winner: Steamer

All three projection systems — especially RW23 — missed on Guerra’s meltdown in 2017, and while Steamer and ZiPS were equally accurate, neither really deserve a win here. Yet, I’m giving it to Steamer. Guerra will be 33 by the beginning of next season, and it seems like his time with Milwaukee is most likely finished. But at least we have his 2016 brilliance as a nice memory.

Zach Davies

	IP	HR	WHIP	BABIP	K/9	BB/9	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	XFIP
RW23	168	22	1.32	.305	7.75	2.61	20.2%	6.8%	4.13	4.14	3.95
Steamer	174	23	1.36	.306	7.67	2.82	19.7%	7.3%	4.35	4.19	4.11
ZiPS	169	20	1.27	.307	7.76	2.55	20.2%	6.6%	3.99	3.91	N/A
Actual	191.1	20	1.35	.302	5.83	2.59	15.2%	6.7%	3.90	4.22	4.42

Winner: Steamer

RW23 should definitely get its props for being accurate, but Steamer still managed to edge out the win by just a hair. Once again, Davies outperformed his peripherals, while also finishing with the exact same BABIP and home runs allowed as he did in 2016. The 24 year old has proved he deserves to be in a major league rotation, even if most of his outs come in other ways than the strike out.

Jimmy Nelson

	IP	HR	WHIP	BABIP	K/9	BB/9	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	XFIP
RW23	181	21	1.35	.296	7.83	3.47	20.1%	8.9%	4.02	4.27	4.16
Steamer	120	15	1.46	.308	7.39	3.64	18.5%	9.1%	4.80	4.57	4.48
ZiPS	170	21	1.38	.307	7.57	3.39	19.2%	8.6%	4.34	4.45	N/A
Actual	175.1	16	1.25	.340	10.21	2.46	27.3%	6.6%	3.49	3.05	3.15

Winner: RW23

Neither of the three systems were particularly close when it came to projecting Nelson, but RW23 was closer to predicting his success relative to Steamer and ZiPS. Nelson broke out in 2017, and despite a crazy .340 BABIP, posted the lowest ERA, FIP and xFIP of his career. It’s really a shame he’ll miss a significant amount of time next season.

Matt Garza

	IP	HR	WHIP	BABIP	K/9	BB/9	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	XFIP
RW23	96	11	1.44	.303	6.05	3.18	15.4%	8.1%	4.45	4.46	4.53
Steamer	128	19	1.46	.308	6.54	3.06	16.5%	7.7%	4.89	4.71	4.57
ZiPS	122	18	1.43	.309	6.30	3.04	15.8%	7.6%	5.04	4.76	N/A
Actual	114.2	17	1.45	.287	6.20	3.53	15.7%	8.9%	4.94	4.91	5.12

Winner: ZiPS

ZiPS and Steamer were neck-and-neck, but I’m giving the slight edge to the former. Garza was dreadful once again, and his contract will go down as the worst free agent contract in Milwaukee Brewers franchise history. He’s now a free agent, but seeing how his last few seasons went, his career might be over. If so, he finishes a 12-year career with 23 WAR.

Wily Peralta

	IP	HR	WHIP	BABIP	K/9	BB/9	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	XFIP
RW23	125	16	1.42	.310	6.66	2.94	17.0%	7.5%	4.49	4.37	4.09
Steamer	140	18	1.45	.312	6.93	3.12	17.5%	7.9%	4.64	4.43	4.26
ZiPS	149	22	1.43	.312	6.67	3.07	16.7%	7.7%	4.81	4.70	N/A
Actual	57.1	10	1.83	.362	8.16	5.02	19.3%	11.9%	7.85	5.34	4.96

Winner: N/A

Peralta was terrible in 2017. So much so that he was optioned to the minors and subsequently designated for assignment. There are no winners here.

Chase Anderson

	IP	HR	WHIP	BABIP	K/9	BB/9	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	XFIP
RW23	138	25	1.40	.295	7.37	3.12	18.9%	8.0%	4.82	5.03	4.51
Steamer	133	18	1.37	.301	7.81	2.83	20.0%	7.2%	4.72	4.56	4.43
ZiPS	139	22	1.38	.308	7.28	2.96	18.5%	7.5%	4.64	4.67	N/A
Actual	141.1	14	1.09	.265	8.47	2.61	23.4%	7.2%	2.74	3.58	4.33

Winner: Steamer

So far the projections haven’t been able to figure out Brewers pitchers in 2017, but once again, Steamer was the closest on Anderson, particularly regarding his peripherals. Anderson posted a sub-3.00 ERA that no one saw coming, and he heads into next season as the Brewers top pitcher.

Jacob Barnes

	IP	HR	WHIP	BABIP	K/9	BB/9	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	XFIP
RW23	52	4	1.20	.293	9.09	3.12	24.5%	8.4%	3.10	3.18	3.54
Steamer	35	4	1.32	.304	8.98	3.28	23.3%	8.5%	3.94	3.84	3.88
ZiPS	53	5	1.27	.313	9.56	3.35	24.9%	8.7%	3.52	3.46	N/A
Actual	72	8	1.25	.272	10.00	4.13	26.3%	10.9%	4.00	3.88	3.67

Winner: Steamer

ZiPS had more of Barnes’ peripheral stats correct, but Steamer takes the cake with its ERA/FIP/xFIP projections. Barnes was wild and didn’t command the strike zone as well as RW23 thought he would. However, his strikeout numbers are great, and he should once again be in the back end of the bullpen and used in high-leverage situations next season.

Corey Knebel

	IP	HR	WHIP	BABIP	K/9	BB/9	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	XFIP
RW23	63	6	1.22	.297	10.32	3.48	27.6%	9.3%	3.24	3.29	3.43
Steamer	65	7	1.28	.302	10.66	3.77	27.9%	9.9%	3.56	3.49	3.56
ZiPS	54	7	1.27	.316	11.28	3.81	29.3%	9.9%	3.65	3.68	N/A
Actual	76	6	1.16	.311	14.92	4.74	40.8%	12.9%	1.78	2.53	2.97

Winner: ZiPS

I could’ve given the win to RW23, but once again, ZiPS was more consistent throughout. Knebel put together his best season of his professional career and finished with the fourth-highest strikeout rate among qualified relievers.

Carlos Torres

	IP	HR	WHIP	BABIP	K/9	BB/9	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	XFIP
RW23	73	9	1.28	.285	8.16	3.26	21.5%	8.6%	3.76	4.10	4.08
Steamer	55	7	1.36	.304	8.58	3.33	22.0%	8.6%	4.17	4.09	4.09
ZiPS	80	11	1.33	.301	8.74	3.59	22.4%	9.2%	3.92	4.29	N/A
Actual	72.2	10	1.53	.309	6.94	4.09	17.4%	10.3%	4.21	4.89	4.96

Winner: Steamer

All three systems missed the target on Torres, as his ERA rose by almost 1.5 runs from 2016. He was ourighted by Milwaukee a few weeks ago.

Jared Hughes

	IP	HR	WHIP	BABIP	K/9	BB/9	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	XFIP
RW23	62	5	1.38	.292	5.11	2.95	13.0%	7.5%	3.99	4.39	4.43
Steamer	10	1	1.46	.308	6.06	3.41	15.3%	8.6%	4.34	4.40	4.46
ZiPS	63	6	1.41	.303	5.12	2.98	N/A	N/A	3.69	4.52	N/A
Actual	59.2	4	1.22	.278	7.24	3.62	19.7%	9.8%	3.02	3.93	3.98

Winner: RW23

At the time I published my original projections post, Steamer hadn’t updated Hughes’ projection. Same with ZiPS for K% and BB%. So I guess by default, RW23 is the winner. Hughes — who was another quality under-the-radar pickup by David Stearns — was an extremely valuable asset in Milwaukee’s bullpen, and the 32 year old should have a similar role in 2018.

Final Results

Steamer: 5 wins

ZiPS: 2 wins

RW23: 2 wins