The World Series is over (congratulations to World Series champion Mike Fiers) but for fans of the Milwaukee Brewers, the offseason began long ago. The Brewers missed the playoffs by an inch, and although playing in October would’ve been incredible, the season as a whole was a great success. I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again; the future is bright in Milwaukee. I fully believe this team is just a year or two away from being a perennial playoff team, something the Brewers have never really been.

But now that the season has ended, it’s time to revisit the projections by comparing my own system (RW23) that was created with the help of Mike Podhorzer and his book Projecting X 2.0, with popular projection systems Steamer and ZiPS. This was the first year I had ever created projections, and I’m curious to see how they held up.

Below you’ll find every Brewers pitcher I projected just before the season tipped off, along with Steamer and ZiPS projections, compared to said player’s actual 2017 statistical line. If you missed my hitter projection review, you can find it here.

***Note: My preseason projections included Tommy Milone, Jhan Marinez, Neftali Feliz and Taylor Jungmann, but because they were on the major league roster for such a short time, I chose not to include them below.

Junior Guerra

	IP	HR	WHIP	BABIP	K/9	BB/9	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	XFIP
RW23	162	17	1.27	.281	7.48	3.25	19.8%	8.6%	3.61	3.99	4.35
Steamer	192	25	1.39	.303	8.24	3.47	21.0%	8.9%	4.43	4.29	4.25
ZiPS	123	18	1.35	.294	8.20	3.66	20.9%	9.3%	4.24	4.54	N/A
Actual	70.1	18	1.48	.236	8.57	5.50	21.3%	13.7%	5.12	6.58	5.43

Winner: Steamer

All three projection systems — especially RW23 — missed on Guerra’s meltdown in 2017, and while Steamer and ZiPS were equally accurate, neither really deserve a win here. Yet, I’m giving it to Steamer. Guerra will be 33 by the beginning of next season, and it seems like his time with Milwaukee is most likely finished. But at least we have his 2016 brilliance as a nice memory.

Zach Davies

	IP	HR	WHIP	BABIP	K/9	BB/9	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	XFIP
RW23	168	22	1.32	.305	7.75	2.61	20.2%	6.8%	4.13	4.14	3.95
Steamer	174	23	1.36	.306	7.67	2.82	19.7%	7.3%	4.35	4.19	4.11
ZiPS	169	20	1.27	.307	7.76	2.55	20.2%	6.6%	3.99	3.91	N/A
Actual	191.1	20	1.35	.302	5.83	2.59	15.2%	6.7%	3.90	4.22	4.42

Winner: Steamer

RW23 should definitely get its props for being accurate, but Steamer still managed to edge out the win by just a hair. Once again, Davies outperformed his peripherals, while also finishing with the exact same BABIP and home runs allowed as he did in 2016. The 24 year old has proved he deserves to be in a major league rotation, even if most of his outs come in other ways than the strike out.

Jimmy Nelson

	IP	HR	WHIP	BABIP	K/9	BB/9	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	XFIP
RW23	181	21	1.35	.296	7.83	3.47	20.1%	8.9%	4.02	4.27	4.16
Steamer	120	15	1.46	.308	7.39	3.64	18.5%	9.1%	4.80	4.57	4.48
ZiPS	170	21	1.38	.307	7.57	3.39	19.2%	8.6%	4.34	4.45	N/A
Actual	175.1	16	1.25	.340	10.21	2.46	27.3%	6.6%	3.49	3.05	3.15

Winner: RW23

Neither of the three systems were particularly close when it came to projecting Nelson, but RW23 was closer to predicting his success relative to Steamer and ZiPS. Nelson broke out in 2017, and despite a crazy .340 BABIP, posted the lowest ERA, FIP and xFIP of his career. It’s really a shame he’ll miss a significant amount of time next season.

Matt Garza

	IP	HR	WHIP	BABIP	K/9	BB/9	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	XFIP
RW23	96	11	1.44	.303	6.05	3.18	15.4%	8.1%	4.45	4.46	4.53
Steamer	128	19	1.46	.308	6.54	3.06	16.5%	7.7%	4.89	4.71	4.57
ZiPS	122	18	1.43	.309	6.30	3.04	15.8%	7.6%	5.04	4.76	N/A
Actual	114.2	17	1.45	.287	6.20	3.53	15.7%	8.9%	4.94	4.91	5.12

Winner: ZiPS

ZiPS and Steamer were neck-and-neck, but I’m giving the slight edge to the former. Garza was dreadful once again, and his contract will go down as the worst free agent contract in Milwaukee Brewers franchise history. He’s now a free agent, but seeing how his last few seasons went, his career might be over. If so, he finishes a 12-year career with 23 WAR.

Wily Peralta

	IP	HR	WHIP	BABIP	K/9	BB/9	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	XFIP
RW23	125	16	1.42	.310	6.66	2.94	17.0%	7.5%	4.49	4.37	4.09
Steamer	140	18	1.45	.312	6.93	3.12	17.5%	7.9%	4.64	4.43	4.26
ZiPS	149	22	1.43	.312	6.67	3.07	16.7%	7.7%	4.81	4.70	N/A
Actual	57.1	10	1.83	.362	8.16	5.02	19.3%	11.9%	7.85	5.34	4.96

Winner: N/A

Peralta was terrible in 2017. So much so that he was optioned to the minors and subsequently designated for assignment. There are no winners here.

Chase Anderson

	IP	HR	WHIP	BABIP	K/9	BB/9	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	XFIP
RW23	138	25	1.40	.295	7.37	3.12	18.9%	8.0%	4.82	5.03	4.51
Steamer	133	18	1.37	.301	7.81	2.83	20.0%	7.2%	4.72	4.56	4.43
ZiPS	139	22	1.38	.308	7.28	2.96	18.5%	7.5%	4.64	4.67	N/A
Actual	141.1	14	1.09	.265	8.47	2.61	23.4%	7.2%	2.74	3.58	4.33

Winner: Steamer

So far the projections haven’t been able to figure out Brewers pitchers in 2017, but once again, Steamer was the closest on Anderson, particularly regarding his peripherals. Anderson posted a sub-3.00 ERA that no one saw coming, and he heads into next season as the Brewers top pitcher.

Jacob Barnes

	IP	HR	WHIP	BABIP	K/9	BB/9	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	XFIP
RW23	52	4	1.20	.293	9.09	3.12	24.5%	8.4%	3.10	3.18	3.54
Steamer	35	4	1.32	.304	8.98	3.28	23.3%	8.5%	3.94	3.84	3.88
ZiPS	53	5	1.27	.313	9.56	3.35	24.9%	8.7%	3.52	3.46	N/A
Actual	72	8	1.25	.272	10.00	4.13	26.3%	10.9%	4.00	3.88	3.67

Winner: Steamer

ZiPS had more of Barnes’ peripheral stats correct, but Steamer takes the cake with its ERA/FIP/xFIP projections. Barnes was wild and didn’t command the strike zone as well as RW23 thought he would. However, his strikeout numbers are great, and he should once again be in the back end of the bullpen and used in high-leverage situations next season.

Corey Knebel

	IP	HR	WHIP	BABIP	K/9	BB/9	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	XFIP
RW23	63	6	1.22	.297	10.32	3.48	27.6%	9.3%	3.24	3.29	3.43
Steamer	65	7	1.28	.302	10.66	3.77	27.9%	9.9%	3.56	3.49	3.56
ZiPS	54	7	1.27	.316	11.28	3.81	29.3%	9.9%	3.65	3.68	N/A
Actual	76	6	1.16	.311	14.92	4.74	40.8%	12.9%	1.78	2.53	2.97

Winner: ZiPS

I could’ve given the win to RW23, but once again, ZiPS was more consistent throughout. Knebel put together his best season of his professional career and finished with the fourth-highest strikeout rate among qualified relievers.

Carlos Torres

	IP	HR	WHIP	BABIP	K/9	BB/9	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	XFIP
RW23	73	9	1.28	.285	8.16	3.26	21.5%	8.6%	3.76	4.10	4.08
Steamer	55	7	1.36	.304	8.58	3.33	22.0%	8.6%	4.17	4.09	4.09
ZiPS	80	11	1.33	.301	8.74	3.59	22.4%	9.2%	3.92	4.29	N/A
Actual	72.2	10	1.53	.309	6.94	4.09	17.4%	10.3%	4.21	4.89	4.96

Winner: Steamer

All three systems missed the target on Torres, as his ERA rose by almost 1.5 runs from 2016. He was ourighted by Milwaukee a few weeks ago.

Jared Hughes

	IP	HR	WHIP	BABIP	K/9	BB/9	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	XFIP
RW23	62	5	1.38	.292	5.11	2.95	13.0%	7.5%	3.99	4.39	4.43
Steamer	10	1	1.46	.308	6.06	3.41	15.3%	8.6%	4.34	4.40	4.46
ZiPS	63	6	1.41	.303	5.12	2.98	N/A	N/A	3.69	4.52	N/A
Actual	59.2	4	1.22	.278	7.24	3.62	19.7%	9.8%	3.02	3.93	3.98

Winner: RW23

At the time I published my original projections post, Steamer hadn’t updated Hughes’ projection. Same with ZiPS for K% and BB%. So I guess by default, RW23 is the winner. Hughes — who was another quality under-the-radar pickup by David Stearns — was an extremely valuable asset in Milwaukee’s bullpen, and the 32 year old should have a similar role in 2018.

Final Results

Steamer: 5 wins

ZiPS: 2 wins

RW23: 2 wins

The World Series is over (congratulations to World Series champion Mike Fiers) but for fans of the Milwaukee Brewers, the offseason began long ago. The Brewers missed the playoffs by an inch, and although playing in October would’ve been incredible, the season as a whole was a great success. I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again; the future is bright in Milwaukee. I fully believe this team is just a year or two away from being a perennial playoff team, something the Brewers have never really been.

But now that the season is over, it’s time to revisit the projections by comparing my own system (RW23) that was created with the help of Mike Podhorzer and his book Projecting X 2.0, with popular projection systems Steamer and ZiPS. This was the first year I had ever created projections, and I’m curious to see how they held up.

Below you’ll find every Brewers hitter I projected in the preseason, along with Steamer and ZiPS projections, compared to said player’s actual 2017 statistical line. Pitcher projection results will soon follow the publication of this article.

Manny Pina

	PA	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	WOBA	K%	BB%	BABIP	HR
RW23	360	330	.246	.302	.356	.658	.110	.290	16.1%	7.0%	.275	8
Steamer	109	99	.250	.305	.384	.689	.135	.298	17.2%	6.6%	.282	3
ZiPS	304	278	.241	.291	.371	.662	.129	.286	16.4%	5.9%	.271	6
Actual	359	330	.279	.327	.424	.751	.145	.323	22.0%	5.6%	.339	9

Winner: Steamer

Even though Steamer vastly miscalculated Pina’s playing time while RW23 was dead accurate, Steamer’s projections were consistently more spot on, giving it the win. Neither of the three thought Pina would have the offensive season he mustered. Kudos to him.

Eric Thames

	PA	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	WOBA	K%	BB%	BABIP	HR
RW23	535	478	.265	.334	.517	.851	.252	.360	26.4%	9.3%	.308	31
Steamer	534	470	.272	.350	.515	.864	.243	.364	24.2%	9.6%	.313	29
ZiPS	507	450	.247	.321	.493	.815	.247	.343	28.2%	8.7%	.297	26
Actual	551	469	.247	.359	.518	.877	.271	.369	29.6%	13.6%	.309	31

Winner: RW23

Another close one with Steamer, but RW23 earns its first win. It correctly predicted Thames’ home run total and was just a point off in slugging and BABIP. Thames produced an excellent season for the Brewers and was definitely a major upgrade over Chris Carter. ZiPS, meanwhile, is still looking to get on the scoreboard.

Jonathan Villar

	PA	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	WOBA	K%	BB%	BABIP	HR
RW23	625	545	.260	.348	.398	.746	.137	.326	24.9%	11.8%	.336	15
Steamer	641	563	.255	.333	.397	.731	.142	.318	25.3%	10.0%	.329	15
ZiPS	584	515	.256	.332	.410	.742	.153	.322	26.9%	9.8%	.338	15
Actual	436	403	.241	.293	.372	.665	.132	.287	30.3%	6.9%	.330	11

Winner: N/A

Jonathan Villar was awful in 2017. While each system projected regression from his phenomenal and unsustainable 2016 campaign, none had him falling off the face of the earth. He eventually lost his starting job to Eric Sogard and Neil Walker, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he finds himself displaced from the roster next year.

Travis Shaw

	PA	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	WOBA	K%	BB%	BABIP	HR
RW23	541	485	.254	.322	.439	.761	.185	.330	24.4%	8.7%	.301	22
Steamer	388	347	.245	.314	.431	.745	.186	.319	23.3%	8.6%	.286	15
ZiPS	542	492	.246	.308	.433	.741	.187	.316	22.9%	7.9%	.287	20
Actual	606	538	.273	.349	.513	.862	.240	.361	23.1%	9.9%	.312	31

Winner: RW23

RW23 was a little more bullish than Steamer and ZiPS, though Shaw still managed to exceed all projections and expectations. He set a career high with 31 home runs and had his best season of his career. Not the most accurate projection by RW23, but it somewhat projected his breakout.

Orlando Arcia

	PA	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	WOBA	K%	BB%	BABIP	HR
RW23	580	537	.255	.304	.383	.688	.129	.300	17.5%	6.5%	.293	12
Steamer	538	497	.246	.292	.375	.667	.129	.288	18.3%	5.8%	.286	10
ZiPS	635	593	.245	.289	.379	.669	.135	.288	20.2%	5.5%	.291	13
Actual	548	506	.277	.324	.407	.731	.130	.309	18.2%	6.6%	.317	15

Winner: RW23

Once again, RW23 was overall just more consistent. Arcia managed to outperform the projections and turned out to be somewhat of a better hitter than people expected. He still only finished with an 85 wRC+, so there’s room for improvement from the 23 year old.

Ryan Braun

	PA	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	WOBA	K%	BB%	BABIP	HR
RW23	555	496	.291	.355	.495	.850	.204	.362	18.6%	8.6%	.320	24
Steamer	544	487	.280	.346	.492	.838	.212	.353	19.3%	8.7%	.310	24
ZiPS	548	497	.282	.343	.477	.820	.195	.347	18.4%	8.0%	.313	22
Actual	425	380	.268	.336	.487	.823	.218	.347	17.9%	8.9%	.292	17

Winner: ZiPS

ZiPS earns its first win, as it accurately predicted Braun’s wOBA and was just a couple points off of his OPS. Braun’s home run power disappeared in 2017, and he just didn’t look like the player he used to be. With the crop of young outfielders the Brewers are ready to employ, Braun’s future is a little up in the air.

Keon Broxton

	PA	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	WOBA	K%	BB%	BABIP	HR
RW23	522	456	.242	.331	.413	.743	.170	.325	31.0%	11.4%	.337	15
Steamer	530	466	.222	.304	.378	.683	.156	.298	32.9%	10.2%	.315	15
ZiPS	469	417	.216	.297	.408	.705	.192	.304	37.3%	10.0%	.325	16
Actual	463	414	.220	.299	.420	.819	.200	.308	37.8%	8.6%	.323	20

Winner: ZiPS

Keon Broxton led MLB in strikeout rate (minimum 400 PA), and ZiPS nailed it on the head with that one. ZiPS was scary accurate throughout Broxton’s projection, while RW23 turned out to be way too optimistic. The centerfielder was, however, able to knock out 20 home runs, but his 84 wRC+ left a lot to be desired.

Domingo Santana

	PA	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	WOBA	K%	BB%	BABIP	HR
RW23	515	441	.256	.354	.490	.843	.234	.362	31.0%	12.3%	.341	23
Steamer	517	448	.253	.343	.449	.792	.197	.342	28.8%	11.4%	.327	21
ZiPS	466	408	.243	.333	.441	.774	.199	.334	32.6%	11.2%	.335	19
Actual	607	525	.278	.371	.505	.875	.227	.372	29.3%	12.0%	.363	30

Winner: RW23

This one wasn’t all that close. RW23 correctly predicted Santana’s breakout, particularly when it came to his power numbers. Personally, I’ve been a die-hard believer in Santana as a prospect and a player, and it’s nice to see him perform at such at high level in his 25-age season. He led the Brewers in wRC+ and while 30 home runs might be his peak, expect his OBP numbers to increase as he continues to get a better feel for the strike zone.

Hernan Perez

	PA	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	WOBA	K%	BB%	BABIP	HR
RW23	315	296	.261	.296	.383	.679	.122	.295	21.6%	4.7%	.314	7
Steamer	402	379	.261	.294	.385	.679	.124	.292	19.6%	4.2%	.308	8
ZiPS	486	458	.266	.293	.400	.693	.133	.296	18.1%	3.7%	.308	10
Actual	458	432	.259	.289	.414	.704	.155	.298	17.2%	4.4%	.286	14

Winner: ZiPS

ZiPS believed Perez would get more playing than a typical utility player, and it was right. For the second straight year, Perez set a career high in home runs and is destined to play a similar role for the Brewers in 2018.

Jett Bandy

	PA	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	WOBA	K%	BB%	BABIP	HR
RW23	300	280	.267	.304	.457	.761	.190	.326	17.8%	3.9%	.282	14
Steamer	218	199	.237	.288	.393	.681	.156	.294	19.7%	4.9%	.267	7
ZiPS	337	307	.225	.278	.378	.655	.153	.284	22.8%	4.2%	.260	11
Actual	188	169	.207	.287	.349	.636	.142	.280	27.1%	8.0%	.259	6

Winner: ZiPS

Bandy started out hot to begin the year, but the catcher eventually cooled and was optioned to the minors. He has raw power and RW23 expected to see that in 2017. It’s hard to envision Bandy making the Opening Day roster in 2018 with Manny Pina and Stephen Vogt still on the roster, but a eye-opening spring could keep him in Milwaukee’s plans.

Jesus Aguilar

	PA	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	WOBA	K%	BB%	BABIP	HR
RW23	145	134	.231	.283	.334	.617	.103	.273	22.3%	6.5%	.280	3
Steamer	99	90	.238	.303	.411	.714	.174	.306	23.0%	7.9%	.276	4
ZiPS	568	516	.250	.310	.448	.758	.198	.322	23.1%	7.6%	.283	26
Actual	311	279	.265	.331	.505	.837	.240	.351	30.2%	8.0%	.337	16

Winner: ZiPS

Aguilar is arguably the biggest surprise of the 2017 campaign. He’s a relatively unknown player who just happened to post a 112 wRC+ off the bench in his first full season in MLB. RW23 and Steamer didn’t believe in him at all. Sure, he had a fantastic spring training, but spring training stats are relatively meaningless. It will be interesting to see what the projections look like for Aguilar next year.

Final Results

ZiPS: 5 wins

RW23: 4 wins

Steamer: 1 win