Below is the same opening I used for my hitter projections, so if you have already visited those, just skip right on down to the stats. If not, here’s where you can find RW23’s hitter projections.

I’m really excited about this.

For the first time in its two-and-a-half year existence, The First Out At Third is featuring real projections rather than educated guesses like it has in previous years. I’m very excited to announce to finally debut RW23 projections.

RW23 is named after my favorite (and greatest) baseball player of all time, Rickie Weeks. I’ve loved him from the moment he made his Brewers’ debut and I shed many tears during his final game in Miller Park, although he wasn’t even given an at bat. I own a banner of Weeks that used to hang up in the stadium, and his is the only autograph I truly cherish. Naming my projections after him was a no-brainer.

Now, RW23 isn’t a scientific or mathematical, computer-based model. It relies on relatively simple formulas that I entered into Excel. I’d be remiss if I didn’t give Mike Podhorzer and his book “Projecting X 2.0” credit, though, as I purchased his book to aid me. I made a few small changes and added a bit of my own sauce to it, but there’s no way I would’ve been able to do this without Mike’s book.

Below you will find RW23’s projections along with a side-by-side comparison to Steamer and ZiPS — two well-respected projection systems.(Note: ZiPS doesn’t project xFIP.) At the end of the year I’ll compare the three systems to see how RW23 performed in its debut season.

As new players are added to the 25-man roster, I will dedicate an entire post to their projections, but for now, here are the pitcher projections for the 2017 Milwaukee Brewers.

SP Junior Guerra

	IP	HR	WHIP	BABIP	K/9	BB/9	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP
RW23	162	17	1.27	.281	7.48	3.25	19.8%	8.6%	3.61	3.99	4.35
Steamer	192	25	1.39	.303	8.24	3.47	21.0%	8.9%	4.43	4.29	4.25
ZiPS	123	18	1.35	.294	8.20	3.66	20.9%	9.3%	4.24	4.54	N/A

SP Zach Davies

	IP	HR	WHIP	BABIP	K/9	BB/9	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP
RW23	168	22	1.32	.305	7.75	2.61	20.2%	6.8%	4.13	4.14	3.95
Steamer	174	23	1.36	.306	7.67	2.82	19.7%	7.3%	4.35	4.19	4.11
ZiPS	169	20	1.27	.307	7.76	2.55	20.2%	6.6%	3.99	3.91	N/A

SP Jimmy Nelson

	IP	HR	WHIP	BABIP	K/9	BB/9	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP
RW23	181	21	1.35	.296	7.83	3.47	20.1%	8.9%	4.02	4.27	4.16
Steamer	120	15	1.46	.308	7.39	3.64	18.5%	9.1%	4.80	4.57	4.48
ZiPS	170	21	1.38	.307	7.57	3.39	19.2%	8.6%	4.34	4.45	N/A

SP Matt Garza

	IP	HR	WHIP	BABIP	K/9	BB/9	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP
RW23	96	11	1.44	.303	6.05	3.18	15.4%	8.1%	4.45	4.46	4.53
Steamer	128	19	1.46	.308	6.54	3.06	16.5%	7.7%	4.89	4.71	4.57
ZiPS	122	18	1.43	.309	6.30	3.04	15.8%	7.6%	5.04	4.76	N/A

SP Wily Peralta

	IP	HR	WHIP	BABIP	K/9	BB/9	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP
RW23	125	16	1.42	.310	6.66	2.94	17.0%	7.5%	4.49	4.37	4.09
Steamer	140	18	1.45	.312	6.93	3.12	17.5%	7.9%	4.64	4.43	4.26
ZiPS	149	22	1.43	.312	6.67	3.07	16.7%	7.7%	4.81	4.70	N/A

SP Chase Anderson

	IP	HR	WHIP	BABIP	K/9	BB/9	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP
RW23	138	25	1.40	.295	7.37	3.12	18.9%	8.0%	4.82	5.03	4.51
Steamer	133	18	1.37	.301	7.81	2.83	20.0%	7.2%	4.72	4.56	4.43
ZiPS	139	22	1.38	.308	7.28	2.96	18.5%	7.5%	4.64	4.67	N/A

RP Tommy Milone

	IP	HR	WHIP	BABIP	K/9	BB/9	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP
RW23	61	7	1.33	.292	6.13	2.68	16.0%	7.0%	4.11	4.32	4.48
Steamer	57	8	1.27	.301	7.96	2.22	20.9%	5.8%	4.10	4.03	3.94
ZiPS	128	21	1.34	.306	7.03	2.46	18.0%	6.3%	4.71	4.61	N/A

RP Jacob Barnes

	IP	HR	WHIP	BABIP	K/9	BB/9	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP
RW23	52	4	1.20	.293	9.09	3.12	24.5%	8.4%	3.10	3.18	3.54
Steamer	35	4	1.32	.304	8.98	3.28	23.3%	8.5%	3.94	3.84	3.88
ZiPS	53	5	1.27	.313	9.56	3.35	24.9%	8.7%	3.52	3.46	N/A

RP Corey Knebel

	IP	HR	WHIP	BABIP	K/9	BB/9	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP
RW23	63	6	1.22	.297	10.32	3.48	27.6%	9.3%	3.24	3.29	3.43
Steamer	65	7	1.28	.302	10.66	3.77	27.9%	9.9%	3.56	3.49	3.56
ZiPS	54	7	1.27	.316	11.28	3.81	29.3%	9.9%	3.65	3.68	N/A

RP Jhan Marinez

	IP	HR	WHIP	BABIP	K/9	BB/9	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP
RW23	53	4	1.33	.300	7.39	3.34	19.0%	8.6%	3.64	3.82	3.99
Steamer	55	6	1.41	.307	8.43	3.89	21.4%	9.9%	4.16	4.12	4.14
ZiPS	68	8	1.34	.307	8.07	3.31	20.7%	8.5%	3.84	4.21	N/A

RP Neftali Feliz

	IP	HR	WHIP	BABIP	K/9	BB/9	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP
RW23	61	9	1.19	0.261	9.18	3.37	24.8%	9.1%	3.67	4.28	4.01
Steamer	65	8	1.28	0.295	10.15	3.56	26.5%	9.3%	3.83	3.81	3.88
ZiPS	55	9	1.30	0.299	9.43	3.58	N/A	N/A	4.39	4.41	N/A

RP Carlos Torres

	IP	HR	WHIP	BABIP	K/9	BB/9	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP
RW23	73	9	1.28	.285	8.16	3.26	21.5%	8.6%	3.76	4.10	4.08
Steamer	55	7	1.36	.304	8.58	3.33	22.0%	8.6%	4.17	4.09	4.09
ZiPS	80	11	1.33	.301	8.74	3.59	22.4%	9.2%	3.92	4.29	N/A

RP Taylor Jungmann

	IP	HR	WHIP	BABIP	K/9	BB/9	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP
RW23	53	6	1.52	.312	7.53	4.23	18.7%	10.5%	4.62	4.52	4.70
Steamer	85	11	1.53	.306	8.02	4.54	19.8%	11.2%	4.91	4.78	4.75
ZiPS	142	19	1.52	.308	8.09	4.78	19.9%	11.7%	4.97	4.88	N/A

RP Jared Hughes

	IP	HR	WHIP	BABIP	K/9	BB/9	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP
RW23	62	5	1.38	.292	5.11	2.95	13.0%	7.5%	3.99	4.39	4.43
Steamer	10	1	1.46	.308	6.06	3.41	15.3%	8.6%	4.34	4.40	4.46
ZiPS	63	6	1.41	.303	5.12	2.98	N/A	N/A	3.69	4.52	N/A