I’m really excited about this.
For the first time in its two-and-a-half year existence, The First Out At Third is featuring real projections rather than educated guesses like it has in previous years. I’m very excited to announce to finally debut RW23 projections.
RW23 is named after my favorite (and greatest) baseball player of all time, Rickie Weeks. I’ve loved him from the moment he made his Brewers’ debut and I shed many tears during his final game in Miller Park, although he wasn’t even given an at bat. I own a banner of Weeks that used to hang up in the stadium, and his is the only autograph I truly cherish. Naming my projections after him was a no-brainer.
Now, RW23 isn’t a scientific or mathematical, computer-based model. It relies on relatively simple formulas that I entered into Excel. I’d be remiss if I didn’t give Mike Podhorzer and his book “Projecting X 2.0” credit, though, as I purchased his book to aid me. I made a few small changes and added a bit of my own sauce to it, but there’s no way I would’ve been able to do this without Mike’s book.
Below you will find RW23’s projections along with a side-by-side comparison to Steamer and ZiPS — two well-respected projection systems. At the end of the year I’ll compare the three systems to see how RW23 performed in its debut season.
As new players are added to the 25-man roster, I will dedicate an entire post to their projections, but for now, here are the hitter projections for the 2017 Milwaukee Brewers. Pitching projections will be out shortly.
PA | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | wOBA | K% | BB% | BABIP | HR | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RW23 | 360 | 330 | .246 | .302 | .356 | .658 | .110 | .290 | 16.1% | 7.0% | .275 | 8 |
Steamer | 109 | 99 | .250 | .305 | .384 | .689 | .135 | .298 | 17.2% | 6.6% | .282 | 3 |
ZiPS | 304 | 278 | .241 | .291 | .371 | .662 | .129 | .286 | 16.4% | 5.9% | .271 | 6 |
1B Eric Thames
PA | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | wOBA | K% | BB% | BABIP | HR | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RW23 | 535 | 478 | .265 | .334 | .517 | .851 | .252 | .360 | 26.4% | 9.3% | .308 | 31 |
Steamer | 534 | 470 | .272 | .350 | .515 | .864 | .243 | .364 | 24.2% | 9.6% | .313 | 29 |
ZiPS | 507 | 450 | .247 | .321 | .493 | .815 | .247 | .343 | 28.2% | 8.7% | .297 | 26 |
PA | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | wOBA | K% | BB% | BABIP | HR | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RW23 | 625 | 545 | .260 | .348 | .398 | .746 | .137 | .326 | 24.9% | 11.8% | .336 | 15 |
Steamer | 641 | 563 | .255 | .333 | .397 | .731 | .142 | .318 | 25.3% | 10.0% | .329 | 15 |
ZiPS | 584 | 515 | .256 | .332 | .410 | .742 | .153 | .322 | 26.9% | 9.8% | .338 | 15 |
3B Travis Shaw
PA | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | wOBA | K% | BB% | BABIP | HR | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RW23 | 541 | 485 | .254 | .322 | .439 | .761 | .185 | .330 | 24.4% | 8.7% | .301 | 22 |
Steamer | 388 | 347 | .245 | .314 | .431 | .745 | .186 | .319 | 23.3% | 8.6% | .286 | 15 |
ZiPS | 542 | 492 | .246 | .308 | .433 | .741 | .187 | .316 | 22.9% | 7.9% | .287 | 20 |
PA | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | wOBA | K% | BB% | BABIP | HR | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RW23 | 580 | 537 | .255 | .304 | .383 | .688 | .129 | .300 | 17.5% | 6.5% | .293 | 12 |
Steamer | 538 | 497 | .246 | .292 | .375 | .667 | .129 | .288 | 18.3% | 5.8% | .286 | 10 |
ZiPS | 635 | 593 | .245 | .289 | .379 | .669 | .135 | .288 | 20.2% | 5.5% | .291 | 13 |
OF Ryan Braun
PA | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | WOBA | K% | BB% | BABIP | HR | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RW23 | 555 | 496 | .291 | .355 | .495 | .850 | .204 | .362 | 18.6% | 8.6% | .320 | 24 |
Steamer | 544 | 487 | .280 | .346 | .492 | .838 | .212 | .353 | 19.3% | 8.7% | .310 | 24 |
ZiPS | 548 | 497 | .282 | .343 | .477 | .820 | .195 | .347 | 18.4% | 8.0% | .313 | 22 |
OF Keon Broxton
PA | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | wOBA | K% | BB% | BABIP | HR | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RW23 | 522 | 456 | .242 | .331 | .413 | .743 | .170 | .325 | 31.0% | 11.4% | .337 | 15 |
Steamer | 530 | 466 | .222 | .304 | .378 | .683 | .156 | .298 | 32.9% | 10.2% | .315 | 15 |
ZiPS | 469 | 417 | .216 | .297 | .408 | .705 | .192 | .304 | 37.3% | 10.0% | .325 | 16 |
PA | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | wOBA | K% | BB% | BABIP | HR | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RW23 | 515 | 441 | .256 | .354 | .490 | .843 | .234 | .362 | 31.0% | 12.3% | .341 | 23 |
Steamer | 517 | 448 | .253 | .343 | .449 | .792 | .197 | .342 | 28.8% | 11.4% | .327 | 21 |
ZiPS | 466 | 408 | .243 | .333 | .441 | .774 | .199 | .334 | 32.6% | 11.2% | .335 | 19 |
PA | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | wOBA | K% | BB% | BABIP | HR | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RW23 | 275 | 245 | .212 | .295 | .366 | .661 | .154 | .292 | 32.7% | 10.1% | .300 | 7 |
Steamer | 242 | 212 | .219 | .305 | .385 | .690 | .165 | .301 | 31.3% | 10.4% | .297 | 8 |
ZiPS | 349 | 308 | .218 | .305 | .412 | .717 | .195 | .310 | 31.2% | 10.6% | .289 | 13 |
UTIL Hernan Perez
PA | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | wOBA | K% | BB% | BABIP | HR | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RW23 | 315 | 296 | .261 | .296 | .383 | .679 | .122 | .295 | 21.6% | 4.7% | .314 | 7 |
Steamer | 402 | 379 | .261 | .294 | .385 | .679 | .124 | .292 | 19.6% | 4.2% | .308 | 8 |
ZiPS | 486 | 458 | .266 | .293 | .400 | .693 | .133 | .296 | 18.1% | 3.7% | .308 | 10 |
PA | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | wOBA | K% | BB% | BABIP | HR | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RW23 | 300 | 280 | .267 | .304 | .457 | .761 | .190 | .326 | 17.8% | 3.9% | .282 | 14 |
Steamer | 218 | 199 | .237 | .288 | .393 | .681 | .156 | .294 | 19.7% | 4.9% | .267 | 7 |
ZiPS | 337 | 307 | .225 | .278 | .378 | .655 | .153 | .284 | 22.8% | 4.2% | .260 | 11 |
PA | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | wOBA | K% | BB% | BABIP | HR | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RW23 | 145 | 134 | .231 | .283 | .334 | .617 | .103 | .273 | 22.3% | 6.5% | .280 | 3 |
Steamer | 99 | 90 | .238 | .303 | .411 | .714 | .174 | .306 | 23.0% | 7.9% | .276 | 4 |
ZiPS* | 568 | 516 | .250 | .310 | .448 | .758 | .198 | .322 | 23.1% | 7.6% | .283 | 26 |
*ZiPS seems to think Aguilar is Milwaukee’s everyday first baseman. Hm.