Introducing The First Out At Third’s new projection system: RW23

For the first time in its two-and-a-half year existence, The First Out At Third will feature real projections rather than educated guesses. I’m very excited to announce the creation of RW23.

RW23 is named after my favorite (and greatest) baseball player of all time, Rickie Weeks. I’ve loved him from the moment he made his Brewers debut and I shed many tears during his final game in Miller Park, although he wasn’t even given an at bat. I own a banner of the legend that used to hang up in the stadium, and his is the only autograph I truly cherish. Naming my projections after him was a no-brainer.

Now, RW23 isn’t a scientific or mathematical, computer-based model. It relies on relatively simple formulas that I entered into Excel. I’d be remiss if I didn’t give Mike Podhorzer and his book “Projecting X 2.0” credit, though, as I purchased his book to aid me. I made a few small changes and added a bit of my own sauce to it, but there’s no way I would’ve been able to do this without Mike’s book.

I’ve run about 16 projections so far, and I’ve teased a few on Twitter, but I won’t be completely finished until about a week before Opening Day. I hope and plan to release the debut of RW23 then.

I hope you’re as excited as me for not only my projections, but for the 2017 season as well!

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