Monthly Archives: July 2016

Brewers trade talk: Who stays and who goes?

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Being a fan of a miserable team isn’t all that much fun. Attending games is less entertaining and watching your team lose time and time again on television eventually becomes a waste of time, not to mention beyond frustrating.  And yet, being a fan of a miserable team can have its perks, especially during the weeks leading up to the trade deadline. The trade deadline is a time when rebuilding teams can do just that — rebuild. They go out and acquire young talent while issuing farewells to long-time players, and although it may be sad, it’s for the good of the team.

That’s how Brewers’ fans are currently feeling. Aside from constant trade rumors, it’s been a rather boring year for Milwaukee fans, and they’re excited for the rumors to finally come to fruition. I know I am.

It should be a busy week and a half for the Brewers’ front office, and I’m sure David Stearns is on the phone right now trying to work a deal.

Let’s get to some predictions.

Players who will be traded

Jonathan Lucroy – If Lucroy’s still a member of the Brewers on Aug. 2, I’ll be absolutely shocked. He’s arguably the best player on the trade market, and with his defensive value and 123 wRC+, there’s multiple teams vying for his services.

Prediction: The Texas Rangers seem like the current favorite to land him, and they make the most sense, so I’m going to go with them. However, I have a feeling Boston will come just in the nick of time with a better offer, especially if they don’t believe Sandy Leon‘s current pace is sustainable. Spoiler: It’s not.

Jeremy Jeffress – Almost every contending team is in need of bullpen help, and the Brewers have a few to spare, including their closer. Jeffress’ strikeouts are down a considerable amount in 2016, but that hasn’t stopped him from running a 2.29 ERA and a 3.40 FIP. Teams will be drawn to him because of his mid-90s fastball that creates a plethora of ground balls. Jeffress probably won’t close on whichever team he’s dealt to, but he’ll no doubt make it stronger.

Prediction: The San Francisco Giants have been rumored to have interest, and I think that’s where he’ll land, maybe as a setup man to Santiago Casilla. Those two would make a dangerous 1-2 punch.

Junior Guerra – I’m in the minority on this one, but I really think Guerra will be moved. A team looking for a controllable pitcher who won’t cost much will find no better option than the Brewers’ 31-year-old rookie. He has an ERA that’s flirting with going below 3 and can hit 96 mph on the gun. At least one team will be attracted to him,

Prediction: Guerra seems like a perfect fit for the Rangers, who, by the way, are currently employing Kyle Lohse as a starter in their rotation.

Players who won’t be traded

Ryan Braun – If you would have asked me a month ago if I thought Braun would be on the move, I would have definitively said yes. Now I’m not so sure. His contract is huge, and his injury history is obviously worrisome. I thought his performance this season would negate all that. Then July hit. So far this month Braun has a 45 wRC+ and has yet to hit a home run. Can a team really take a chance that he’ll get his swing back over the last two months AND absorb his enormous contract?

Will Smith – Will Smith is receiving a lot of interest, so I could see him being traded. Then again, I’m a believer in David Stearns, and I think Stearns will wait until next year to sell Smith off after he regains some value. Smith has lost a little value this year because he’s not striking out hitters like he once did. His strikeout rate has fallen from 34.5% in 2015 to 22.7% in 2016. That’s essentially a 12% loss of strikeouts. Stearns might want to hold on to him a little while longer.

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Is Junior Guerra trade bait?

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The trade market for starting pitchers is relatively weak this season. There’s really no other way to put it. Very few “ace-like” pitchers will be available, if any at all. When teams trade for a starter just before the deadline, the intention is for that hurler to pitch for them in the playoffs, not just to pitch them into the playoffs. Unfortunately for postseason-hopeful teams, there’s not many playoff pitchers out there, even though the demand is substantial.

MLB Trade Rumors recently released a list of 40 pitchers that teams could pursue, but a good majority of them are either at best average pitchers or have too pricey of contracts, safe for a few like the entire Rays’ rotation, Drew Pomeranz and Julio Teheran.

But among the 40 that made the list, Milwaukee Brewers’ rookie Junior Guerra was nowhere to be found. And that’s what prompted me to write this post, because Guerra should absolutely be considered trade bait.

After spending essentially his entire career with the minors, Guerra has burst onto the scene as a Brewer. He’s made 13 starts and accumulated a higher WAR (1.5) than any other Brewers’ starter. Guerra can also brag about having the lowest ERA (3.06), FIP (3.87) and K% (22%). Needless to say, he’s been one of the few and unexpected bright spots on a team that sits near the bottom of its division.

Guerra is under team control for another five seasons after 2016 finishes up, and doesn’t hit arbitration until 2019. Granted, his age of 31 isn’t exactly a plus, but his arm doesn’t have as much wear and tear on it as, say, a major-league pitcher who’s been in the bigs since age 22. Besides, he’s most likely going to be a cheap player who’s under team control for the duration of his career, and that’s the important part.

If a team shows enough interest in Guerra, expect David Stearns to pull the trigger. The Brewers don’t have much of a need for an aging pitcher when their sole focus is acquiring young talent. However, I don’t believe Stearns will trade Guerra just to trade him. That’s not his style. So if Stearns isn’t satisfied with the return, he’s going to hold on to him and hope his stock rises a bit more in 2017 as a starter and then try to move him. It would be a risky move, but it might behoove the Brewers in the end.

Guerra looks like a playoff pitcher from what he showed in the first half of the season. His FIP and xFIP tells us to expect some regression, but it could be that he’s just peripheral-beater. Watch out for teams like the Boston Red Sox, Cleveland Indians and Washington Nationals to make a play for him.

Who are the Brewers getting in Aaron Wilkerson and Wendell Rijo?

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The Milwaukee Brewers began their sure-to-be interesting march to the trade deadline by sending Aaron Hill and cash to the wRC+-leading Boston Red Sox in exchange for RHP Aaron Wilkerson and INF Wendell Rijo. This trade will be the first of (hopefully) many the Brewers make before Aug. 1.

Hill was acquired by the Brewers this winter for Jean Segura in a package that included Chase Anderson and Isan DIaz. So essentially, if you’re a fan of trade trees, Milwaukee traded Segura who is absolutely killing it this season, and Tyler Wagner for Anderson, Diaz, Wilkerson and Rijo. That’s a significantly better haul than it was the first time around, and something I can get behind.

But who exactly are the Brewers getting in Wilkerson and Rijo?

Aaron Wilkerson has had a tumultious professional career up to this point. He underwent Tommy John surgery in college and made stops in independent ball before being picked up by the Red Sox. Wilkerson is a 27-year-old righty who started the 2016 season in Triple-A — his first stint at the highest level of minor-league ball, and so far the results have been good despite not being among Boston’s top prospect lists. In nine games (eight starts), Wilkerson posted a 2.44 ERA and a 3.17 FIP, thanks to a very strong strikeout-to-walk ratio (4.91). Among his four-pitch arsenal is a deceptive fastball that has no doubt been a huge reason for his success in the minors.

Although he’ll start in Colorado Springs, Wilkerson has a real chance of getting a call-up this season. There’s no reason the Brewers shouldn’t try him out during a rebuilding year, even as a bullpen arm.

Wendell Rijo seems to be the prize in this trade. He was rated as Boston’s 17th-best prospect to begin the season, and he provides even more depth for an organization that’s starting to get stacked with infield talent. Rijo is naturally a second baseman, but is capable of moving around the infield which he will likely do when he reports to Brevard County. He played with Boston’s Double-A squad this year as a 20 year old, so it’s not really a surprise that he struggled. His batting average was sub-200 with a .245 on-base percentage. Previous to 2016, though, Rijo was an OBP hitter who could draw walks and hit for average power. Not necessarily home run power, though, as most of his isolated power in Single-A came from his ability to hit doubles.

Overall, this trade provides the Brewers with great value. They traded Aaron Hill, a player who has been just dreadful the past two seasons, for two prospects who both have a shot at making an impact with the major-league club.

I don’t know about you, but with all the impressive moves David Stearns is orchestrating, I’m starting to think he’s a wizard. And not like an evil wizard like Saruman from the Lord of the Rings. More like Gandalf who does good things. Ya know?