Pitcher projections for the 2016 Milwaukee Brewers

Warning: Below is the same opening I used for my hitter projections (lazy is my name), so feel free to skip it and scroll down to the projections.

It’s that time of year again, when projections are being unleashed and the biased trolls of the internet emerge from their caves. I love it.

People say that projections are like throwing darts at a dart board and hoping it sticks where you want it too. Well, if that’s the case, then the dart’s trajectory has been calculated countless of times and the dart board is bigger than the average one. Projection systems, like Steamer and ZiPS, are the most accurate darts we currently have at our disposable. So many components (i.e. park factors, age, injury history, talent) play into their forecasts that it’s asinine not to put at least a little merit in them.

With that being said, my projections are not based on a mathematical model. My brain doesn’t possess the functionality it requires to build one or to even interpret simple mathematical equations. For someone who is so invested in sabermetrics, I don’t know a lick of math. I guess my projections are simply predictions.

On the other hand, my projections are more than just guess work. I’ve poured over each player’s statistical history, taken injuries and age into account, looked at splits, went over other projection systems and basically every other thing I could possibly do to make sure my projections were well-informed.

Here are my pitcher projections for the 2016 Milwaukee Brewers:

Position Name ERA FIP xFIP SIERA HR K% BB% GB% WAR
SP Wily Peralta 4.45 4.61 4.11 4.20 18 15.9% 7.6% 52.4% 1.3
SP Jimmy Nelson 3.88 3.83 3.97 4.01 20 19.2% 8.2% 52.1% 2.6
SP Matt Garza 4.21 4.40 4.00 4.13 21 16.3% 8.0% 44.5% 0.9
SP Taylor Jungmann 4.03 4.19 4.25 3.99 15 18.8% 10.5% 47.2% 1.6
SP Chase Anderson 4.47 4.36 4.08 4.25 19 18.5% 7.3% 44.0% 1.7
RP Carlos Torres 3.88 3.69 3.80 3.28 6 20.4% 8.2% 47.6% 0.2
RP Jeremy Jeffress 2.86 3.01 3.12 2.88 6 24.5% 7.5% 59.3% 1.0
RP Blaine Boyer 4.00 3.94 4.39 4.29 5 13.0% 6.4% 52.5% 0.1
RP Tyler Thornburg 4.13 4.35 4.22 3.65 8 23.6% 9.7% 35.8% -0.2
RP Chris Capuano 3.99 4.02 3.77 3.92 4 19.7% 6.9% 41.7% 0.2
RP Michael Blazek 3.23 3.52 3.94 3.50 5 22.1% 8.8% 48.1% 0.5
RP Ariel Pena 4.22 4.09 4.59 4.15 3 23.4% 11.1% 38.8% 0.1
Total 3.95 4.00 4.02 3.85 130 19.6% 8.4% 47.0% 10.0

Quick Hits

  • The rotation should be considerably better than a year ago. No Kyle Lohse, and there’s no way Matt Garza can repeat his outrageously horrendous performance, is there?
  • Jeremy Jeffress is primed for another fantastic season, especially if he can up his K rate.
  • Jimmy Nelson will have the highest WAR and solidify his spot as the best pitcher in the rotation.
  • Wily Peralta’s strikeout percentage will continue to be underwhelming.
  • The bullpen might struggle, especially if the starters can’t go deep into games.
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