It’s that time of year again, when projections are being unleashed and the biased trolls of the internet emerge from their caves. I love it.
People say that projections are like throwing darts at a dart board and hoping it sticks where you want it too. Well, if that’s the case, then the dart’s trajectory has been calculated countless of times and the dart board is bigger than the average one. Projection systems, like Steamer and ZiPS, are the most accurate darts we currently have at our disposable. So many components (i.e. park factors, age, injury history, talent) play into their forecasts that it’s asinine not to put at least a little merit in them.
With that being said, my projections are not based on a mathematical model. My brain doesn’t possess the functionality it requires to build one or to even interpret simple mathematical equations. For someone who is so invested in sabermetrics, I don’t know a lick of math. I guess my projections are simply predictions.
On the other hand, my projections are more than just guess work. I’ve poured over each player’s statistical history, taken injuries and age into account, looked at splits, went over other projection systems and basically every other thing I could possibly do to make sure my projections were well-informed.
Here are my hitter projections for the 2016 Milwaukee Brewers:
| Position | Name | AVG | HR | wOBA | wRC+ | OBP | ISO | K% | BB% | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | Jonathan Lucroy | .290 | 10 | .331 | 115 | .333 | .133 | 12.4% | 9.0% | 3.5 |
| 1B | Chris Carter | .220 | 28 | .330 | 116 | .311 | .235 | 33.4% | 11.1% | 1.3 |
| 2B | Scooter Gennett | .271 | 6 | .285 | 81 | .299 | .125 | 19.0% | 3.6% | 0.4 |
| 3B | Aaron Hill | .237 | 7 | .296 | 90 | .311 | .119 | 15.2% | 7.9% | 0.5 |
| SS | Jonathan Villar | .233 | 5 | .289 | 79 | .303 | .128 | 25.1% | 6.3% | 0.2 |
| OF | Keon Broxton | .255 | 4 | .305 | 83 | .315 | .159 | 33.6% | 7.4% | 0.5 |
| OF | Domingo Santana | .269 | 22 | .345 | 118 | .330 | .208 | 32.9% | 10.8% | 2.5 |
| OF | Ryan Braun | .280 | 23 | .352 | 121 | .348 | .210 | 20.5% | 9.3% | 2.9 |
| C | Martin Maldonado | .236 | 4 | .265 | 62 | .290 | .111 | 26.3% | 9.2% | -0.1 |
| OF | Ramon Flores | .266 | 5 | .323 | 99 | .324 | .139 | 16.2% | 8.7% | 0.6 |
| INF | Yadiel Rivera | .222 | 2 | .261 | 56 | .249 | .091 | 24.7% | 3.9% | -0.3 |
| INF | Colin Walsh | .247 | 4 | .297 | 88 | .325 | .110 | 25.0% | 10.9% | 0.1 |
| OF | Kirk Nieuwenhuis | .233 | 4 | .309 | 91 | .285 | .192 | 31.3% | 7.5% | 0.3 |
| Total | .251 | 124 | .307 | 92 | .309 | .151 | 24.3% | 8.1% | 12.4 |
Quick Hits
- No Brewer will bat .300 or better, and only four will be above-average hitters.
- I expect Jonathan Lucroy to bounce back and re-enter the “best catcher in baseball” discussion.
- I’m excited about Chris Carter. I wouldn’t be surprised if he put up 40 home runs. According exit velocity, nobody hit the ball harder than Carter from Aug. 1 on in 2015. His defense will keep his WAR down.
- Domingo Santana, the most exciting player on the roster, will be an All Star this season. Mark it down.
- Milwaukee’s bench is a sight for sore eyes.
Your projection for Scooter Gennett is weak. Gennett generates a lot of bat speed for a guy his size. He’ll easily hit 15-18 HR batting in front of Braun all year.
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Scooter Gennett has never hit more than nine home runs in any level of professional ball. Saying he’s “easily” going to hit 15-18 home runs is a little insane.
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