Hitter projections for the 2016 Milwaukee Brewers

It’s that time of year again, when projections are being unleashed and the biased trolls of the internet emerge from their caves. I love it.

People say that projections are like throwing darts at a dart board and hoping it sticks where you want it too. Well, if that’s the case, then the dart’s trajectory has been calculated countless of times and the dart board is bigger than the average one. Projection systems, like Steamer and ZiPS, are the most accurate darts we currently have at our disposable. So many components (i.e. park factors, age, injury history, talent) play into their forecasts that it’s asinine not to put at least a little merit in them.

With that being said, my projections are not based on a mathematical model. My brain doesn’t possess the functionality it requires to build one or to even interpret simple mathematical equations. For someone who is so invested in sabermetrics, I don’t know a lick of math. I guess my projections are simply predictions.

On the other hand, my projections are more than just guess work. I’ve poured over each player’s statistical history, taken injuries and age into account, looked at splits, went over other projection systems and basically every other thing I could possibly do to make sure my projections were well-informed.

Here are my hitter projections for the 2016 Milwaukee Brewers:

Position Name AVG HR wOBA wRC+ OBP ISO K% BB% WAR
C Jonathan Lucroy .290 10 .331 115 .333 .133 12.4% 9.0% 3.5
1B Chris Carter .220 28 .330 116 .311 .235 33.4% 11.1% 1.3
2B Scooter Gennett .271 6 .285 81 .299 .125 19.0% 3.6% 0.4
3B Aaron Hill .237 7 .296 90 .311 .119 15.2% 7.9% 0.5
SS Jonathan Villar .233 5 .289 79 .303 .128 25.1% 6.3% 0.2
OF Keon Broxton .255 4 .305 83 .315 .159 33.6% 7.4% 0.5
OF Domingo Santana .269 22 .345 118 .330 .208 32.9% 10.8% 2.5
OF Ryan Braun .280 23 .352 121 .348 .210 20.5% 9.3% 2.9
C Martin Maldonado .236 4 .265 62 .290 .111 26.3% 9.2% -0.1
OF Ramon Flores .266 5 .323 99 .324 .139 16.2% 8.7% 0.6
INF Yadiel Rivera .222 2 .261 56 .249 .091 24.7% 3.9% -0.3
INF Colin Walsh .247 4 .297 88 .325 .110 25.0% 10.9% 0.1
OF Kirk Nieuwenhuis .233 4 .309 91 .285 .192 31.3% 7.5% 0.3
Total .251 124 .307 92 .309 .151 24.3% 8.1% 12.4

Quick Hits

  • No Brewer will bat .300 or better, and only four will be above-average hitters.
  • I expect Jonathan Lucroy to bounce back and re-enter the “best catcher in baseball” discussion.
  • I’m excited about Chris Carter. I wouldn’t be surprised if he put up 40 home runs. According exit velocity, nobody hit the ball harder than Carter from Aug. 1 on in 2015. His defense will keep his WAR down.
  • Domingo Santana, the most exciting player on the roster, will be an All Star this season. Mark it down.
  • Milwaukee’s bench is a sight for sore eyes.
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2 thoughts on “Hitter projections for the 2016 Milwaukee Brewers

  1. Dave

    Your projection for Scooter Gennett is weak. Gennett generates a lot of bat speed for a guy his size. He’ll easily hit 15-18 HR batting in front of Braun all year.

    Like

    Reply

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